Iran Tanker Tracking

Economic pressure can compel Tehran to moderate its destructive behavior and end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Crude and natural gas exports historically account for 25% of government revenues: it is therefore important to accurately track Iran’s oil exports to interpret if sanctions are effectively stopping the flow of revenue to the regime.

This can be difficult given the regime’s track-record of smuggling and sanctions evasion techniques and there is little consensus among oil tracking agencies about how much is getting through, and to where.

This variance mars the accuracy of media reports, but it also presents a serious challenge to those trying to get a handle on the trajectory of the Iranian economy, given its oil revenue dependency.

More importantly, a correct accounting of quantities and destinations will help focus limited resources to where they are really needed: which shippers, which vessels, which areas, which ports, which flags, which insurers.

UANI has therefore sought to address the information gap with a new comprehensive ship-tracking methodology.

Using Automatic Identification System (AIS), satellite imagery, vessel comparison and tanker classification, and cargo datasets to uncover all under-the-radar ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and exports of Iranian oil and gas condensates, we generate what we contend are the most accurate figures available.

This resource seeks to disrupt Iran’s attempts to generate profits from oil sales and further isolate the regime economically.

  • Exports Over Time
  • Shipping Analysis
  • February 2023
    Barrels Per Day (BPD)
February Total: 1,153,381
February 2023 Iran Tanker Tracker
March 01, 2023 | Claire Jungman and Daniel Roth

Now more than halfway through President Biden’s four-year term, we are still left to wonder if the Administration will seriously address the biggest single sanction-busting scheme happening right under its nose – Iranian oil exports to China.  At the current trajectory, China will have imported 1.2 billion barrels of Iranian oil during the Biden presidency, worth in the region of $100 billion.  In fact, recent higher figures suggest the total figure will be closer to 1.3 billion come January 2025. Surely there has never been a more flagrant, long-term, and lucrative example of U.S. sanctions abuse.

It must be granted that the United States is plowing its own lonely furrow on this issue. Notwithstanding the Administration’s repeated line that “our Allies and partners” are back on-side, Washington has had zero support on this from the E-3 countries. Neither Britain, France, nor Germany have shown the slightest hint they are willing to take that crucial step of ‘snapping-back’ oil sanctions, as senior officials, as well as the European Union’s foreign affairs chief, continue to hope for a return to the JCPOA.
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