Economic pressure can compel Tehran to moderate its destructive behavior and end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Crude and natural gas exports historically account for 25% of government revenues: it is therefore important to accurately track Iran’s oil exports to interpret if sanctions are effectively stopping the flow of revenue to the regime.
This can be difficult given the regime’s track-record of smuggling and sanctions evasion techniques and there is little consensus among oil tracking agencies about how much is getting through, and to where.
This variance mars the accuracy of media reports, but it also presents a serious challenge to those trying to get a handle on the trajectory of the Iranian economy, given its oil revenue dependency.
More importantly, a correct accounting of quantities and destinations will help focus limited resources to where they are really needed: which shippers, which vessels, which areas, which ports, which flags, which insurers.
UANI has therefore sought to address the information gap with a new comprehensive ship-tracking methodology.
Using Automatic Identification System (AIS), satellite imagery, vessel comparison and tanker classification, and cargo datasets to uncover all under-the-radar ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and exports of Iranian oil and gas condensates, we generate what we contend are the most accurate figures available.
This resource seeks to disrupt Iran’s attempts to generate profits from oil sales and further isolate the regime economically.
This week it was reported that the Biden administration is pressing China to reduce its Iran oil imports. It’s more of a gentle lean. “We have been approaching this diplomatically,” said the unnamed official, because this was, in their view, “a more effective path forward” to deal with the Iran issue. This echoes reports in March and July, describing tepid warnings from the U.S. that it would administer existing sanctions and was “considering “ new ones. Six months later, the impact of these warnings has been less than zero. China has not paid the slightest heed to any American diplomatic overtures and continues to import millions of barrels of Iranian oil every month, providing the biggest single lifebuoy keeping the regime afloat and solvent. For September 2021, China imported at least 18 million barrels total (600,333 barrels per day), which will rise by several million as vessel transponders are re-enabled, and more accurate figures become available in the coming days. Assuming an eventual September import figure similar to August, that will take total Chinese imports to 210 million barrels for the whole of 2021.
This week it was reported that the Biden administration is pressing China to reduce its Iran oil imports. It’s more of a gentle lean. “We have been approaching this diplomatically,” said the unnamed official, because this was, in their view, “a more effective path forward” to deal with the Iran issue. This echoes reports in March and July, describing tepid warnings from the U.S. that it would administer existing sanctions and was “considering “ new ones. Six months later, the impact of these warnings has been less than zero. China has not paid the slightest heed to any American diplomatic overtures and continues to import millions of barrels of Iranian oil every month, providing the biggest single lifebuoy keeping the regime afloat and solvent. For September 2021, China imported at least 18 million barrels total (600,333 barrels per day), which will rise by several million as vessel transponders are re-enabled, and more accurate figures become available in the coming days. Assuming an eventual September import figure similar to August, that will take total Chinese imports to 210 million barrels for the whole of 2021.
