Iran Tanker Tracking

Economic pressure can compel Tehran to moderate its destructive behavior and end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Crude and natural gas exports historically account for 25% of government revenues: it is therefore important to accurately track Iran’s oil exports to interpret if sanctions are effectively stopping the flow of revenue to the regime.

This can be difficult given the regime’s track-record of smuggling and sanctions evasion techniques and there is little consensus among oil tracking agencies about how much is getting through, and to where.

This variance mars the accuracy of media reports, but it also presents a serious challenge to those trying to get a handle on the trajectory of the Iranian economy, given its oil revenue dependency.

More importantly, a correct accounting of quantities and destinations will help focus limited resources to where they are really needed: which shippers, which vessels, which areas, which ports, which flags, which insurers.

UANI has therefore sought to address the information gap with a new comprehensive ship-tracking methodology.

Using Automatic Identification System (AIS), satellite imagery, vessel comparison and tanker classification, and cargo datasets to uncover all under-the-radar ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and exports of Iranian oil and gas condensates, we generate what we contend are the most accurate figures available.

This resource seeks to disrupt Iran’s attempts to generate profits from oil sales and further isolate the regime economically.

  • Exports Over Time
  • Shipping Analysis
  • January 2023
    Barrels Per Day (BPD)
January Total: 1,206,079
January 2023 Iran Tanker Tracking
February 01, 2023 | Claire Jungman and Daniel Roth

In the two years since the start of the Biden Administration, the Islamic Republic of Iran has managed to export just over 600 million barrels of oil to China, worth around $48 billion. When questioned about these eye-watering numbers this month, U.S. Special Envoy to Iran Rob Malley assured Bloomberg that the Biden team was “not fine with it.”  Unfortunately, Mr. Malley’s proposed remedy – to “intensify” talks with Beijing – is unlikely to prove much of a departure from the existing policy failure of “quiet diplomacy.”

Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Beijing February 5-6 is the perfect opportunity to try a new approach, which is desperately required. Nothing has altered the accuracy of our prediction made in July 2019 that “China will in all likelihood continue to defy U.S. oil sanctions,” and “Quiet Diplomacy Plus” will not be any more effective. If the regime can expect to export another $25 billion worth of oil to China over 2023, there is scant incentive for Tehran to consider fundamental behavioral changes based on economic constraints - let alone the prospect of regime collapse. Once again, Chinese imports hit more than 1 million barrels of Iranian oil per day over January.
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