Iran Tanker Tracking

Economic pressure can compel Tehran to moderate its destructive behavior and end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Crude and natural gas exports historically account for 25% of government revenues: it is therefore important to accurately track Iran’s oil exports to interpret if sanctions are effectively stopping the flow of revenue to the regime.

This can be difficult given the regime’s track-record of smuggling and sanctions evasion techniques and there is little consensus among oil tracking agencies about how much is getting through, and to where.

This variance mars the accuracy of media reports, but it also presents a serious challenge to those trying to get a handle on the trajectory of the Iranian economy, given its oil revenue dependency.

More importantly, a correct accounting of quantities and destinations will help focus limited resources to where they are really needed: which shippers, which vessels, which areas, which ports, which flags, which insurers.

UANI has therefore sought to address the information gap with a new comprehensive ship-tracking methodology.

Using Automatic Identification System (AIS), satellite imagery, vessel comparison and tanker classification, and cargo datasets to uncover all under-the-radar ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and exports of Iranian oil and gas condensates, we generate what we contend are the most accurate figures available.

This resource seeks to disrupt Iran’s attempts to generate profits from oil sales and further isolate the regime economically.

  • Exports Over Time
  • Shipping Analysis
  • August 2022
    Barrels Per Day (BPD)
August Total: 1,379,074
August 2022 Iran Tanker Tracking
September 01, 2022 | Claire Jungman and Daniel Roth

As a final nuclear deal creeps into view, many analysts predict an immediate boost to the global oil supply as Iranian crude comes back online. Some analysts estimate that “Iran has about 150 to 200 million barrels of crude and condensate floating on the water” which would become available almost immediately.  Meanwhile, a draft agreement would purportedly see the U.S. permit Iran to sell 50 million barrels in a “one-time sanctions exemption” just 60 days after “Day Zero” of a new deal. Ultimately, Iran could add an additional 900,000 barrels per day (bdp) into the system, rising up to as high as 2 million bpd thereafter.  

The likelihood that Iran will maximize the potential profits of this windfall is dependent on the viability of its tanker fleet.   Notably, the average age of a National Iranian Tanker Company (“NITC”) vessel is 19 years old, whereas tankers are usually broken down after 20 years. Thus, the Iranian fleet is approaching the time for scrapping - not transporting.  Given the age of its fleet, Iran could even struggle to obtain the insurance coverage necessary to ferry its glut of post deal oil to buyers around the globe.
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