Iran Tanker Tracking

Economic pressure can compel Tehran to moderate its destructive behavior and end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Crude and natural gas exports historically account for 25% of government revenues: it is therefore important to accurately track Iran’s oil exports to interpret if sanctions are effectively stopping the flow of revenue to the regime.

This can be difficult given the regime’s track-record of smuggling and sanctions evasion techniques and there is little consensus among oil tracking agencies about how much is getting through, and to where.

This variance mars the accuracy of media reports, but it also presents a serious challenge to those trying to get a handle on the trajectory of the Iranian economy, given its oil revenue dependency.

More importantly, a correct accounting of quantities and destinations will help focus limited resources to where they are really needed: which shippers, which vessels, which areas, which ports, which flags, which insurers.

UANI has therefore sought to address the information gap with a new comprehensive ship-tracking methodology.

Using Automatic Identification System (AIS), satellite imagery, vessel comparison and tanker classification, and cargo datasets to uncover all under-the-radar ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and exports of Iranian oil and gas condensates, we generate what we contend are the most accurate figures available.

This resource seeks to disrupt Iran’s attempts to generate profits from oil sales and further isolate the regime economically.

  • Exports Over Time
  • Shipping Analysis
  • August 2023
    Barrels Per Day (BPD)
August Total: 1,714,215
August 2023 Iran Tanker Tracker
September 01, 2023 | Claire Jungman and Daniel Roth

This month, Iran’s oil exports reached levels not seen since 2017. During the first 20 days of August, Iran dispatched an average of two million barrels of oil daily. This marks a substantial increase of more than 30% compared to previous months. The key to understanding this oil export surge lies in the relaxation of sanctions enforcement by the Biden administration, particularly to China. This approach has opened avenues for Iran to revive and significantly increase its exports.

The Biden Administration’s recent deal to free five Iranian-American hostages held by Iran is symptomatic. This agreement involves releasing an unknown number of Iranian agents or sanctions violators held in U.S. jails, along with the release of over $6 billion of Iranian assets frozen by South Korea. This deal rewards the regime for its hostile actions and could incentivize Tehran, and even other outlaw regimes, to take more hostages in the future.
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