Chinese demand question hangs over tanker market as Iran and Russia crude patterns shift under sanctions

While geopolitics continues to make headlines in the tanker market, questions over Chinese oil demand linger in the background. Declines in Chinese crude imports and demand filled by illicit barrels from Iran and Russia helped hold down VLCC rates through much of the second half of last year — a story that only unwound in the past few weeks as the US stepped up sanctions enforcement. “The risk beyond the geopolitical risk are on the demand side for oil,” Fearnleys adviser Jonathan Staubo said during the Astrup Fearnley Shipping and Energy Conference in Oslo on Wednesday. “Will Chinese demand recover?” Iranian crude oil exports to China hit 1.5m barrels per day in December 2024, according to New York-based pro-sanctions pressure group United Against Nuclear Iran.