Dramatic Fall in Iranian Oil Exports to China – What Does This Mean for Fuel Prices in 2025?

Over the years, Iran has perfected sophisticated sanctions-evasion mechanisms that rely on tanker-to-tanker transfers on the high seas and the forging of documents of origin. In 2024, as much as 1.7 million barrels per day of Iranian oil was transported by the shadow fleet, according to United Against Nuclear Iran, with 80% of those shipments going to China disguised as imports from Malaysia, Oman or the United Arab Emirates. The system relied on networks of intermediaries in the region who provided fake certificates of origin and arranged maritime insurance.