The Difficulty of Forming a Transformational Government in Lebanon

The election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister to form a new government, raised hopes that the war-torn country is about to enter a new era of reforms. Both Aoun, the former chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and Salam, a well-known jurist and diplomat, represent a new kind of leadership coming from outside the traditional circles of Lebanon’s political elite.

Nevertheless, three weeks into government formation negotiations with the representatives of the different political parties, it appears that the initial optimism is fading due to the realities of Lebanese political dynamics. The core obstacle to forming a government is Hezbollah’s insistence on maintaining its share of cabinet ministers. In particular, Hezbollah is determined to retain sway over the Finance Ministry, upon which the terrorist group—along with its close accomplice Nabih Berri, head of the Amal movement and speaker of parliament—has exerted extensive influence throughout the last decade.

Ali Hassan Khalil, a prominent Amal member, ran the ministry from 2014 until 2020, when he was sanctioned by the U.S., in an unprecedented move, due to his key role in promoting Hezbollah’s financial interests. Since 2021, Youssef Khalil, Ali Hassan Khalil’s nephew, has run the ministry, ensuring Hezbollah’s and Amal’s control over the state treasury.

Now, after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah is cut off from its supply routes of money and arms, running from Tehran through Damascus and reaching Beirut. Recent Iranian efforts to revive the illegal smuggling campaign are being closely monitored by Israel, and at the same time the Lebanese authorities are under international pressure to prevent any Iranian attempt to transfer funds to Lebanon using air routes bypassing Syria. Hezbollah has also been unable to uphold its promise to compensate its thousands of followers for the damages they suffered during the war with Israel. These circumstances make Hezbollah’s control over state institutions like the Finance Ministry more urgent than ever.

Further complicating matters, Hezbollah’s Lebanese opponents and like-minded American lawmakers are calling for a concerted effort to prevent Hezbollah and Amal from having any influence on the management of Lebanon’s finances. Some Lebanese voices are even urging that Hezbollah be locked out of the next government altogether.

President Aoun declared a political vision that emphasizes the reestablishment of state sovereignty, specifically its monopoly over weapons. This adds another challenge to including Hezbollah in the government, as the organization strongly objects to any call for its disarmament.

Hezbollah has already sent signals expressing its discontent over the situation. Hundreds of the organization’s members participated in a recent high-profile motorcycle parade in the streets of Beirut waving Hezbollah’s flag. The act was widely seen in Lebanon as a subtle threat of Hezbollah’s ability to trigger domestic unrest in case its demands are ignored.

Conflicting reports from Lebanon make it hard to understand the exact status of government formation. Many observers fear that Nawaf Salam will be unable to push back on Hezbollah’s demands, even though he insists his government ministers will be solely technocrats with no clear political affiliation. 

For years. Hezbollah and its accomplices were the primary obstacle to any chance of reforming dysfunctional Lebanese state institutions. The question is whether Aoun and Salam have the political courage to take the necessarily decisions to fulfill their promises of a reformed and sovereign Lebanon—which contradicts Hezbollah interests—or whether they will surrender to the terrorist organization’s threats. 

Any concession from Aoun and Salam now will likely lead to a slippery slope of tactical agreements with Hezbollah that hinder any real progress toward needed reforms. Hezbollah’s survival, let alone its recovery from the harsh blows it suffered from Israel in the past months, is dependent on weak state intuitions, lack of sovereignty, and the silent acceptance of its terror activity on Lebanon’s soil. 

The composition of the next Lebanese government negotiated today in Beirut will be critical to the future of the country and will determine whether it will continue to be a failed state with an Iranian terror proxy embedded in it, or start the long process of rebuilding a sovereign and functioning country, free from Hezbollah’s grip. 

To make the latter outcome more likely, the international community, and the U.S. most of all, must ensure that Salam will not cave to Hezbollah’s demands. If Salam, to avert political instability, chooses to include ministers affiliated with Hezbollah and its accomplices in his government, foreign governments must sanction those ministers—as was done with former Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil—and thereby make clear that concessions to Hezbollah are unacceptable.

Dror Doron is a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon. He spent nearly two decades as a senior analyst in the Office of Israel's Prime Minister. Dror is on Twitter @DrorDoron.