Hezbollah

The political scene in Lebanon underwent dramatic changes in recent days, as the influential position of Hezbollah, the unofficial “kingmaker” of Lebanese politics over the past two decades, was challenged. 

Lebanon ended two years of a vacancy in its presidency with the election of the Army Chief, Joseph Aoun, and shortly after the selection of Nawaf Salem, a Sunni diplomat and the head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), to be Lebanon’s next prime minister. 

The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria and the severe blows to Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities present Lebanon with an opportunity to strengthen the country's sovereignty and independence from the influences of foreign forces. 

A symbolic example of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) manifesting this opportunity was evident in the past days, as the LAF took over several Palestinian military facilities that have been operating on Lebanon's soil for decades. 

As all eyes were focused over the last few days on Syria and the historic events unfolding there, little attention has been given to Lebanon and the troubling statements coming out from Beirut, which tried to downplay the importance of the ceasefire agreement with Israel and to minimize the scope of its conditions. 

The announcement of the ceasefire agreement that ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah was followed by efforts from Hezbollah officials to portray the war as a great victory. Nevertheless, outside of Hezbollah's immediate sphere of influence in the Shiite sect, few in Lebanon see the outcome of the year-long war as an achievement. 

As the war between Hezbollah and Israel is still ongoing, international mediators, led by the U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, are trying to lay the groundwork for a ceasefire agreement. The operating assumption is that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is going to play a critical role in any such agreement that will dictate the nature of the next phase in the bilateral relationship between Israel and Lebanon. 

A month has passed since Israel abandoned its containment policy towards Hezbollah's attacks over the past year and went on the offense against the organization. By now, Israel has decapitated most of Hezbollah's leadership and caused significant damage to the organization's advanced and long-range weapons capabilities.

As the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has continued for close to a year, the U.N. Security Council recently renewed the mandate of the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon or UNIFIL) for another year. The contradiction between the text approved in the U.N., and the reality on the ground could not have been more staggering, as keeping, or more likely reestablishing calm along the Israeli-Lebanese border seems far beyond the capabilities of UNIFIL. 

Over a week has passed since Hezbollah’s response to the Israeli targeted killing of Fuad Shukr, the organization’s top military commander. As the dust settles down, there are several takeaways from the event that brought Israel and Hezbollah to the closest point of an all-out war since the October 7 massacre by Hamas. 

Hezbollah’s failed attempt to hit significant military targets in central Israel as a response to Israel’s targeted killing of Fuad Shukr, one of the organization’s top military commanders, opens a window that allows a peek into its thinking.

A caption from a video published on X after Israel’s strike on a Hezbollah ammunition depot last week in the Bekaa Valley