Hezbollah

Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral in recent days marked the end of an era in Lebanon, as following the recent war with Israel, Hezbollah finds itself in an unprecedented situation. Its leadership is seen as weak and inexperienced, it has suffered significant military losses, and it is in a deep financial crisis. Most important is the fact the organization is cut off from its main logistical arena in Syria due to the fall of the Assad regime. 

For more than five decades, Hezbollah was the most successful model of Iran’s vision of exporting its Shiite Muslim revolution to other countries in the region. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, responsible for Tehran’s regional paramilitary and terror activities, invested hundreds of millions of dollars to transform Hezbollah into the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor and enable it to become Lebanon’s political hegemon. 

The election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister to form a new government, raised hopes that the war-torn country is about to enter a new era of reforms. Both Aoun, the former chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and Salam, a well-known jurist and diplomat, represent a new kind of leadership coming from outside the traditional circles of Lebanon’s political elite.

The images, like the one above, circulating on Lebanese social media leave little doubt: Hezbollah is still very much present in southern Lebanon.

The political scene in Lebanon underwent dramatic changes in recent days, as the influential position of Hezbollah, the unofficial “kingmaker” of Lebanese politics over the past two decades, was challenged. 

Lebanon ended two years of a vacancy in its presidency with the election of the Army Chief, Joseph Aoun, and shortly after the selection of Nawaf Salem, a Sunni diplomat and the head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), to be Lebanon’s next prime minister. 

The downfall of the Assad regime in Syria and the severe blows to Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities present Lebanon with an opportunity to strengthen the country's sovereignty and independence from the influences of foreign forces. 

A symbolic example of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) manifesting this opportunity was evident in the past days, as the LAF took over several Palestinian military facilities that have been operating on Lebanon's soil for decades. 

As all eyes were focused over the last few days on Syria and the historic events unfolding there, little attention has been given to Lebanon and the troubling statements coming out from Beirut, which tried to downplay the importance of the ceasefire agreement with Israel and to minimize the scope of its conditions. 

The announcement of the ceasefire agreement that ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah was followed by efforts from Hezbollah officials to portray the war as a great victory. Nevertheless, outside of Hezbollah's immediate sphere of influence in the Shiite sect, few in Lebanon see the outcome of the year-long war as an achievement. 

As the war between Hezbollah and Israel is still ongoing, international mediators, led by the U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, are trying to lay the groundwork for a ceasefire agreement. The operating assumption is that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is going to play a critical role in any such agreement that will dictate the nature of the next phase in the bilateral relationship between Israel and Lebanon. 

A month has passed since Israel abandoned its containment policy towards Hezbollah's attacks over the past year and went on the offense against the organization. By now, Israel has decapitated most of Hezbollah's leadership and caused significant damage to the organization's advanced and long-range weapons capabilities.