Lebanon’s Failure to Prevent the Re-Emergence of Hezbollah on the Border with Israel

The images, like the one above, circulating on Lebanese social media leave little doubt: Hezbollah is still very much present in southern Lebanon. Sixty days after the signing of the ceasefire agreement with Israel that required the disarming of Hezbollah and for Lebanon to push the organization north of the Litani River, hundreds of Hezbollah’s followers, waving its yellow flag, rushed into the heavily damaged villages along the Israeli border. 

Israel claims that the spontaneous appearance of civilians returning to their homes was carefully coordinated by Hezbollah, which is known to operate under the cover of the local population in those villages. The large amounts of weapons hidden in the homes of the villagers over the past month is incontrovertible proof of this terrorist modus operandi.

Throughout the day’s events, Hezbollah members of parliament and the organization’s media outlets encouraged their Shiite followers to ignore the Israeli warnings not to approach the villages, some of them still under the IDF’s control. The chaotic scenes led to more than 20 casualties. 

Hezbollah of course celebrated the “victory,” and the unnecessary casualties were hailed as martyrs of a “civilian resistance” to the Israeli occupation. Once again, the organization demonstrated its ability to manipulate the local population as a tool to promote its destructive “resistance” narrative. 

The Lebanese armed forces in the area did nothing to control the events. They stood idly while the masses crossed over the military checkpoints that were supposed to prevent direct contact between the population and the Israeli soldiers. 

In recent weeks, Israel has repeatedly warned of exactly this scenario, time after time it claimed that Hezbollah’s men are still operating in the area and that the Lebanese Army is far from fulfilling its obligation to terminate the organization’s presence in the villages adjacent to the international border. 

As the 60-day deadline set by the ceasefire agreement got closer, Israel found itself in a “Catch-22” dilemma: completing its withdrawal from the area while knowing Hezbollah is still present and the Lebanese Army being unable to restrain the organization, hence risking the lives of Israeli citizens along the border; or leaving military forces in Lebanon’s territory to secure its border, while playing into the hands of Hezbollah’s “resistance to the occupation” narrative. 

From the Israeli perspective, the risk of Hezbollah rebuilding its military assets and setting the ground for another October 7-style cross-border attack is unbearable. This, together with the deep suspicion of the Lebanese Army’s ability and even will to effectively disarm Hezbollah’s military assets in southern Lebanon, were probably major factors in Israel’s decision not to fully withdraw by the end of the preset schedule.

Under those circumstances, the White House statement that the ceasefire agreement’s deadline has been extended until February 18 seems to be an attempt to "buy time” and postpone the need to make strategic decisions regarding the long-term security measures needed along the Israeli-Lebanese border. 

The ball is now in the Lebanese court, as the newly elected president of the country, former Army chief Joseph Aoun, is facing a tough mission. The sovereignty of its state is being breached by two actors: a terror organization that ignores the Lebanese state’s authorities and its international commitments and a neighboring state adamant to prevent any chance of terror attack on its territory. 

In his inauguration speech, President Aoun was clear in his message that he would not accept the existence of non-state military actors in Lebanon and that his main mission is to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty and its monopoly over the use of arms in its territory. 

To this day, the hesitant postures of the Lebanese Army and other security apparatuses towards Hezbollah’s military infrastructures remain unchanged since Aoun took power. His main test is the strict enforcement of the ceasefire agreement on Hezbollah that will gain the approval of the monitoring committee and will enable Israel to reposition its forces along the international border. 

Failing to act now and playing along with the manipulative narrative Hezbollah tries to establish regarding the events of recent days, will set President Aoun on a slippery slope of conceding to Hezbollah’s policies and will send a very negative sign regarding the possibility of Lebanon’s state to enforce its sovereignty according to Aoun’s vision. 

 Dror Doron is a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon.  He spent nearly two decades as a senior analyst in the Office of Israel's Prime Minister. Dror is on Twitter @DrorDoron.