TOP STORIES
U.S. Allows Iran to Sell Oil in Dollars for First Time in Decades | Wall Street Journal
“The U.S. cleared the way for Iran to sell oil in dollars, including to U.S. buyers . . . The Treasury Department on Monday waived longstanding sanctions on those sales for two months while talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address the issues of Iran’s nuclear program and further sanctions relief proceed. For years, Iran used a shadowy network of tankers under sanctions to sell its crude, primarily to China. . . . Vance announced progress on the possible release of billions of dollars in Iranian funds held in Qatar. Critics say the money could be used to fund Iran’s Middle East allied militias, including Hezbollah. The vice president said the funds, if they are ever unfrozen, should be used to buy U.S. food products. ‘They’re going to go to make American farmers richer and to feed the Iranian people, that’s a very very good and classic Trump deal,’ he said.”
Iran Makes Moves to Assert Control Over the Strait of Hormuz | New York Times
“Iran is taking steps to cement its control over the Strait of Hormuz and to generate revenue from the waterway through new entities and procedures, experts say. . . . The head of Iran’s primary insurance regulator, Mousa Rezaei, said on Sunday that a new insurance company had been established that was dedicated solely to the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media reported. And late last week, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which was created by Iran in May, demanded that vessels register and sign up for a new mandatory Iranian insurance policy—free of charge for now.”
IDF Says It Struck Hezbollah Gunmen near Israeli Forces in South Lebanon | Times of Israel
“The IDF says it struck armed Hezbollah operatives who were spotted near Israeli forces in southern Lebanon a short while ago. The cell of Hezbollah gunmen was spotted in the Ali Taher ridge area, north of the Israeli-held security zone in southern Lebanon, according to the military. . . . Lebanese media reported that Israeli fire in the area killed two and injured two others.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
Interview of UANI Research Director Daniel Roth | Newsmax
“President Trump's historic redlines have been zero enrichment. What does concern me about this ‘downblending’ suggestion is that it can be ‘upblended’ eventually . . . to his credit, the means, the mechanisms to enrich have by all accounts been obliterated, but I remain concerned by the remnants that could be reconstituted.”
Interview of UANI Research Director Daniel Roth | NewsX
“[General License X is] is a significant concession, and means Iranian-origin oil can even apparently come into the United States. That’s a huge 180 from the policy of successive US administrations. In terms of the U.S. assertion that money will only go to the people of Iran, the Iranians have made it clear through their statements and actions that their priority is to fund the IRGC, to pay their salaries, to export its revolution. They’re not interested in the welfare of their own people, as borne out by the wholesale slaughter of 40,000 innocent Iranian protesters earlier this year.”
Iranian Crude Floods Back, Erasing Oil’s Conflict Premium | Wealth Professional
“A flotilla of 10 Iranian-flagged supertankers carrying close to 20m barrels was sailing from Chabahar toward Asia for likely teapot refineries in China, according to US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, cited by Reuters. ‘The signal has gone out and they are repositioning in expectation of the end of the US blockade. Clearly, a system reboot is in progress,’ the group's senior advisor Charlie Brown said.”
DIPLOMACY
‘We’ll See’—Trump Hedges on Guarantee Iran Won’t Use Oil Profits to Rebuild Military | CNBC
“President Donald Trump on Monday hedged when asked if he could guarantee that Iran would not use profits from oil sales to rebuild its military in the wake of the war with the U.S. and Israel. Trump said the money was expected to be used to buy American agricultural products. . . . ‘Well, they’re not supposed to be doing that, so we’ll see,’ Trump told CNBC’s Eamon Javers at the White House during an executive order signing event when asked if he could ensure Iran would not use oil money for that purpose. ‘But they’re supposed to use money to buy food for their people, because right now their people are very hungry, and they’re buying it exclusively from us: corn, soybeans,’ Trump said. ‘Should be a lot of money,’ he said. ‘I hope it’s a lot of money.’”
“Iran has denied a claim by Vice-President JD Vance that it will allow nuclear inspectors back into the country, after the first round of talks between Washington and Tehran to reach a final deal to end the war. . . . Iran's foreign ministry told state media that Tehran had made ‘no new commitments’ on nuclear inspections.”
Iran Says UN Watchdog Will Not Be Allowed to Inspect Bombed Nuclear Sites | Arab News Japan
“Iran said Tuesday that the United Nations nuclear watchdog’s inspectors would not be given access to the country’s key nuclear sites that were bombed during the war with Israel and the United States last year.”
Trump: Iran Has ‘Fully Agreed to Highest Level of Nuclear Inspections’ | Times of Israel
“In a post, US President Donald Trump claims Iran has ‘fully and completely agreed to highest level nuclear inspections long into the future (Infinity!)’ ‘This will insure ‘nuclear honesty.’ If they did not agree to this, there would be no further negotiations!’ Trump writes. . . . ‘Based on this and other major concessions being made by Iran, I have agreed to allow the Hormuz Strait to remain OPEN, with no further naval blockade. However, all ships are remaining in place should it be necessary to reinstitute the blockade, which seems, at this point, highly unlikely,’ Trump adds. . . . Trump continues: ‘The money and/or sanctions that the US Treasury is releasing goes into escrow, controlled by the USA and will be used for the purchase of food and medical supplies, exclusively from the United States, including corn, wheat, and soybeans from our great American Farmers,’ Trump continues, as he tries to downplay the US concession of billions of dollars in sanctions relief. ‘These are things that are desperately needed by Iran. This is a humanitarian crisis, and I feel it is necessary to help, NOW, before it is too late.’ Tehran also said today that it alone will decide how to use its frozen assets once they are unfrozen.”
US-Iran Lebanon Mechanism to Include Iran, Qatar, Pakistan, Exclude Israel—Report | Times of Israel
“A new deconfliction mechanism for Lebanon established as part of the negotiations between the US and Iran in Switzerland over the weekend would exclude Israel and limit Israeli military action to only responding to ‘imminent threats,’ rather than to the broader category of ‘emerging threats,’ according to a Monday report.”
Israel Fears Trump Is Strengthening Iran’s Hand in Lebanon | Axios
“Israel's government is concerned that the U.S. is effectively legitimizing Iran’s influence in Lebanon and eroding Israel’s freedom of operation there through new understandings reached in Switzerland and the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran last week, two Israeli sources told Axios.”
Israel and Lebanon Hold Washington Talks Today on Hezbollah Disarmament | i24 News
“Israeli and Lebanese delegations are holding another round of talks today in Washington focused on the disarmament of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the prospect of normalization. This, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirms that Israeli forces would remain in the south. . . . Meanwhile, Qatar is looking to establish an indirect mediation channel between Israel and Hezbollah, without neglecting the official Lebanese side, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reports.”
“Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva on Tuesday reported good progress in peace talks between the United States and Iran, but denied U.S. claims that Tehran would use assets unfrozen as part of a deal to buy U.S. commodities.”
“Vice President JD Vance on Monday said his lengthy talks with senior Iranian officials in Switzerland created a ‘good foundation for a successful final deal’ as they seek a permanent end to the war that the U.S. and Israel began in late February. Vance and U.S. officials claimed progress on multiple fronts, including the establishment of ‘mechanisms’ to ensure the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global energy shipments, stays open and to address fighting between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon, where a ceasefire appeared to be holding.”
“Former White House officials and Middle East experts are expressing concern over the Trump administration’s move to lift sanctions on Iranian oil sales through August, warning that Tehran will gain significant revenue it could use for malign activities before it demonstrates concrete progress on its diplomatic commitments. . . . Elliott Abrams, who served as special envoy for Iran during the first Trump administration . . . indicated that the regime would likely use the funds in ways contrary to U.S. interests. ‘Why give them the money to stabilize the regime and start rebuilding their military before they have done anything at all on their nuclear program?’ Abrams asked. ‘Why do we just get promises while they get billions?’”
Trump’s Iran Agreement Embraces Sanctions Relief, a Policy He and His Team Once Denounced | CNN
“For years, President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance argued against deals that provided financial concessions to Iran, saying that giving the regime money fuels terror. But now the agreement they’ve reached to end the war with Tehran is poised to hand the regime billions. . . . In an op-ed in September 2015—ahead of the deal’s implementation — then-candidate Trump castigated the JCPOA for the prospect of lifting ‘all nuclear related sanctions’ and handing Iran ‘a windfall of $150 billion, which will no doubt fund terrorism around the world.’ ‘It appears we wanted a deal at any cost,’ he wrote. As recently as 2016, Trump argued that Obama had made a basic mistake by relieving pressure on Tehran before obtaining stronger concessions. ‘We took the sanctions off, we got nothing for that’ Trump said at a conservative summit in Denver. ‘It’s like 101, Trump, ‘The Art of the Deal.’’ ‘Why did Pres Obama remove sanctions against Iran prior to negotiating rather than completing successful negotiation & then remove sanctions?’ Trump tweeted in 2014.
If Iran Accepts New Inspections, Can the US Even Make Them Work? | Defense One
“Inspectors would begin without a clear understanding of how much nuclear material Iran holds or how many centrifuges and other enrichment tools it has. . . . The agency will find it difficult to ‘provide any confidence that Iran does not retain an undeclared enrichment capability somewhere outside of the facilities attacked last summer, which would be a huge problem,’ Matthew Sharp, a senior nuclear fellow at MIT’s Center for Nuclear Security Policy, said . . . Either way, said Sharp, the White House should stop congratulating itself. ‘Any idea that Iran ‘inviting’ the IAEA to come back to its facilities is somehow a victory to be compensated is farcical. Iran has for more than fifty years had a legal obligation to allow inspections in ALL of its nuclear facilities under its safeguards agreement with the IAEA.’”
“Iran’s president arrived in Pakistan for talks Tuesday with officials mediating negotiations between Tehran and Washington on a permanent end to the war in the Middle East, even as discrepancies emerged on what had been agreed so far and violence broke out again in Lebanon.”
Rubio Heads to UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain to Discuss Iran Deal with Gulf Allies | Reuters
“U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel Tuesday through Thursday to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain, on a trip that will give the Trump administration a chance to sell its preliminary Iran accord directly to Gulf Arab allies. While in Bahrain, Rubio will also meet with the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, a grouping of six Sunni monarchies that also includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman, State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said on Monday.”
MILITARY MATTERS & STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS
Shipping Stalls in Strait of Hormuz After Iran Declares Key Waterway Closed Again | CNBC
“Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stalled over the weekend, according to maritime intelligence company Windward, after Iran announced it had again closed the world’s most important oil choke point. . . . ‘The current traffic profile: dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked, resembling the late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait,’ Windward said . . .”
US and Iran Give Shipowners Conflicting Hormuz Orders | Financial Times
“Shipowners are in deep confusion over the safest route out of the Gulf amid conflicting instructions from Iran, the US and western insurers. While traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up, Iran has said that vessels risk ‘penalties’ and may be forced to turn back if they do not seek permission beforehand from Tehran and take a route close to the Iranian coastline. At the same time the US and some western insurers are advising ships to follow a route protected by US air cover on the Omani side of the strait, according to three shipping executives, leaving shipowners unsure of which path to take.”
Trump Says 19 Million Barrels of Oil Exited Strait of Hormuz on Monday | Times of Israel
“US President Donald Trump claims ‘19 Millions barrels of oil flowed out of the Hormuz Strait (on Monday)—an all time RECORD.’ ‘Oil prices are tumbling down, and the world is a much safer place!’ Trump writes on Truth Social . . . Trump’s figures have not yet been independently verified.”
Iran and Oman Say They’ll Examine Charging Fees to Pass Through Hormuz | Agence France-Presse
“Oman and Iran will study the future administration of the Strait of Hormuz and the costs to be charged for services provided, they say in a joint statement, insisting on sovereignty over the vital waterway.”
“US President Donald Trump said Monday that not even the threat of an economic depression would deter him from striking Iran again to ensure that the regime doesn’t obtain a nuclear weapon, as he touted a reopened Strait of Hormuz. ‘Nuclear weapon supersedes depression,’ Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. ‘Depression is real bad. Nuclear weapon will cause depression much more quickly.’ ‘If Iran doesn’t live up to their agreement, or if they’re not behaving, I will do what I have to do,’ the president continued. ‘As long as Iran respects us, we are not going to have any trouble.’”
Israel Isn’t a Party to the Iran Deal | Avigdor Lieberman in the Wall Street Journal
“There is no room for illusions. The deal between Washington and Tehran won’t stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power. It will guarantee it. Israel’s current leadership is responsible for not only the worst security disaster in our nation’s history, but also our worst diplomatic failure. Senior Israeli officials were ostracized within the White House and not made privy to what was taking place behind closed doors once a cease-fire had been reached. The Israeli position was left completely off the table. The memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran has fully legitimized Iran’s nuclear ambitions and paved the way for a final agreement far worse than President Obama’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Worse still, the emerging framework is eerily similar to the agreement reached between the U.S. and North Korea during the Clinton administration. We all know how that worked out. No time can be wasted deflecting blame. Israel must immediately adopt a clear and decisive strategy to confront the dangerous ramifications of this grave diplomatic collapse.”
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
“A conservative Iranian activist accused hardline lawmakers of pushing to reopen parliament to inflame tensions and use its platform for factional purposes following the MOU between Tehran and Washington.”
CONGRESS & IRAN
“Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said that Israel’s right to self defense must be protected in U.S. talks with Iran, after administration officials publicly urged Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah as part of the recent memorandum of understanding—even though Israel, Hezbollah and Lebanon are not parties to that agreement. . . . Asked if he had received any word from the White House on when the administration plans to brief members of Congress, or even senior congressional leadership, on the MOU, Thune replied: ‘I haven’t. My assumption is because, again, all the briefers are over there [in Switzerland], but hopefully soon. We’ve asked for it, and hopefully we’ll get it.’ Senate lawmakers, including Thune, also expressed some reservations about the waiver lifting U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil sales, which was issued on Monday without any specific nuclear concessions by Iran. Thune told reporters earlier Monday that he’d ‘like to see the lifting of sanctions connected to steps taken by the Iranians to shut down their nuclear program,’ which he said he had not observed yet.”