Lebanon

Hezbollah Releases Second Drone Video of Israeli Installations at Karish Gas Field

Hezbollah’s military media released what appeared to be a second drone video of Israeli installations at the Karish Gas Field, which Lebanon has recently and belatedly claimed is located in its exclusive economic zone. The video was a typical Hezbollah production, running grainy images of sensitive Israeli installations, while also providing their names, basic information, and coordinates – data meant to convey military prowess, despite its ready availability in open source. To maximize the psychological effect of the video, the production ended with an audio threat by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, translated into Hebrew. Last month, Hezbollah also released what appeared to be a drone video of Karish – but an investigation into the footage used to make the video appears to show that it was fake, having used aerial footage shot for a promotional video by Energean, a company which owns a gas rig in the Karish field.

Nasrallah has dedicated several of his recent speeches and interviews to the matter of the maritime border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel which, if finalized, would properly determine Karish’s ownership. True to form, Nasrallah threatened Israel against exploiting Karish’s reserves, lest the Jewish state provoke a violent response from Hezbollah. “We will reach Karish and beyond it,” he said, echoing his “Haifa and after Haifa” threats from the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War. However, the Hezbollah chieftain subsequently partially backpedaled, reiterating his old position that the Lebanese state was the party responsible for determining Karish’s ownership and Lebanon’s sovereignty over it, while his group would act only to reinforce that position.

Nasrallah’s and Hezbollah’s bellicosity over the issue of the maritime border dispute and Karish gas field appear to be more of the group’s theatrics, designed to obscure the constraining effect Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis has had on Hezbollah – particularly its ability to pursue its stated raison d’etre of resistance against Israel. However, some senior Israeli defense officials reportedly see matters differently. Senior defense officials, including Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi and other top IDF brass, reportedly briefed the Israeli cabinet that if an agreement was not reached with Lebanon over the maritime border dispute, matters could escalate, and Israel could find itself in an armed clash with Hezbollah that could last several days.

Israel and Palestinian Territories

Israel on Alert Along Gaza Strip Border After Arresting Senior PIJ Official in West Bank

Israel arrested Bassem Saadi, a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commander, in the West Bank city of Jenin on Monday. Saadi is reportedly the commander of PIJ forces in the West Bank, and was arrested along with his son-in-law and aide, Ashraf al-Jada.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad responded with threats of escalation against Israel, saying it was putting its forces on a state of “alertness” and raising its fighters’ readiness. This type of threat has become customary from Resistance Axis militias like PIJ, usually passing with little incident, but the IDF, fearing retaliation, closed roads and halted rail traffic near the Gaza border for the week. Senior Israeli defense officials, including Defense Minister Benny Gantz and IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, visited the border with Gaza, sending stern warnings to PIJ against any escalation. According to the IDF, Kochavi instructed to increase the military’s readiness for an escalation, strengthen defenses, and increase intelligence efforts. He also approved plans for offensive actions, in the event of an Islamic Jihad attack on the border.

Kochavi toured the military’s Gaza Division Thursday morning, as Israel remained on high alert for a potential attack along the border with the Strip. Road closures along the border with the Gaza Strip remained in place for the third day in a row amid fears of an imminent attack by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group, after the IDF arrested its West Bank leader on Monday night.

According to the IDF, Kochavi instructed to increase the military’s readiness for an escalation, strengthen defenses, and increase intelligence efforts. He also approved plans for offensive actions, in the event of an Islamic Jihad attack on the border. Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Gantz meanwhile held a “security consultation” on Thursday morning, Lapid’s office said. “The two discussed the security situation in the south and the steps necessary for continued security in the area. They agreed to hold another consultation later [that day]” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement. Gantz then issued several instructions to the defense establishment to prepare “various civil and military measures” to remove the PIJ threat on the border and return civilian life in the area to normal.

Gantz also visited the IDF’s Southern Command Friday morning as tensions remain high along the Gaza border for the fourth day in a row over fears of an attack by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and warned that the threat posed by the group will be dealt with. “To our enemies, and specifically to the leadership of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, I would like to emphasize: your time is up.” The threat [on this region] will be removed one way or another,” the defense minister said. During his visit, Gantz also held a situational assessment with Kochavi, head of the southern Command Maj.-Gen. Eliezer Toledano, Commander of the Gaza Division Brig.-Gen. Nimrod Aloni, and the head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar. 

On Friday afternoon, the IDF bombed the Gaza Strip after declaring a “special situation” in the area. According to Palestinian reports, the strike took place in the Rimal neighborhood in Gaza, and it was one of a few attacks. The IDF later announced it had launched Operation Breaking Dawn to target PIJ amid a series of threats in recent days. PIJ confirmed that among others, Israel killed the head of PIJ’s military wing in the northern Gaza Strip Tayseer al-Jabri, who replaced Baha Abu al-Ata. Israel also launched a targeted killing against him in 2019.

PIJ Secretary-General Ziad al-Nakhala threatened that it is “going to battle, and there is no truce after this bombing.” Hamas also issued a response, saying that “the Israeli enemy began the escalation against the resistance in Gaza, committing a new crime, and they must pay the price,” adding that “the resistance, with all of its military factions, is united in this battle.”

PIJ Chief Visits Iran

As Israel arrested the PIJ commander in the West Bank, Secretary-General of PIJ Ziyad al-Nakhalah visited Iran. While there, Nakhalah met with senior Iranian officials, including Iran’s president, foreign minister, and the foreign policy advisor to Iran’s supreme leader. The Iranian president told Nakhalah that “it is not the so-called peace agreements, but the light path of resistance that has made the enemy desperate and paralyzed and the supporters of the resistance approach in the world hopeful.” Nakhalah added, “today, the Palestinian resistance has a strong presence in Gaza and a highlighted presence in the West Bank, which in the future will lead to increased pressure on the Zionist regime and changes in the equations in Palestine, and these achievements have been achieved thanks to the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” He noted the “personal approach of the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran in strengthening relations with the countries of the region and standing against the dominators has played a significant role in this field.” This visit could prove significant amid the IDF’s Operation Breaking Dawn, as al-Nakhalah threatened after its launch that PIJ would target Tel Aviv with its rockets.

Iraq

Supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr Continue Protest

Supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr, whose political bloc won the largest share of parliamentary seats in parliament in October only to later resign amid paralysis in government formation, stormed Iraq’s parliament in recent weeks. They were protesting the attempted nomination by the Coordination Framework—which represents pro-Iran elements—of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. He formerly served in several ministerial roles, including as minister of human rights and minister of labor. Sadrists objected, calling al-Sudani a façade for former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whom Sadr opposed joining the government, as well as Iran. They also accuse him of corruption.

This week, Mohamed Saleh al-Iraqi, a Sadr associate, called on protesters to “leave parliamentary headquarters” and join other protesters at an “encampment in front of and around the building.” This puts protesters still in the Green Zone amid political paralysis and unrest. In the uncertainty, the Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Esmail Ghaani visited Baghdad in recent days. But an Iraqi official associated with the Coordination Framework told Reuters that he did not appear to have succeeded in his visit to advance Iran’s political agenda. This shows Ghaani’s struggles to manage and manipulate Iran’s interests and proxies after the demise of his predecessor Qassem Soleimani.