Tensions Building On Syria Among Regional Powers As Iranian Activity Grows More Aggressive

Iranian Ground Support, Continued Financial Assistance Plays Critical Roles As Assad Regime Nears Control Of Region 

(New York, N.Y.) – Nearly nine years into the Syrian civil war, forces backed by Iran and loyal to Bashar al-Assad appear to be on the brink of retaking control of the Idlib province – the last major rebel stronghold in Syria.

Last month, Iranian military and proxy forces played a significant role in the Assad regime’s capture of Maarat al-Numan – a key town in the province. Shortly after Maarat al-Numan fell to Assad’s forces, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pointedly criticized Iran and its proxies for the attack which, according to press reports, included 400-800 Iran-backed Afghan fighters known as the Fatemiyoun Division. The U.S. sanctioned the Fatemiyoun Division in January 2019 for providing material support to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF). The government’s announcement noted that “children as young as 14 years old have died fighting Iran’s war in Syria.”

Iran has extended itself militarily and financially throughout the war to support the Assad regime. Tehran has provided Damascus with a line of credit reportedly worth between $4.5 and $7.6 billion as well as $10.3 billion in embargoed crude oil over five years. The semi-official Fars News Agency boasted last month of the IRGC-QF, then led by Qassem Soleimani, training and equipping Syrian police to suppress protests in 2011 and in the same year providing intelligence and security training for a number of Syrian forces. Iran has sent rifles, machine guns, ammunition, mortar shells and communications equipment to Syria. And it has supported the deployment of Hezbollah forces which have fought in the Qusayr, Qalamoun, Aleppo, Badiat al-Sham, and Eastern Ghouta campaigns.

All told, it’s possible that Iran has spent more than $100 billion supporting Damascus since the start of the war.

If Assad is successful in taking and holding Idlib, the last rebel held territory in the country, the payoff for Iran will be a secure base along the Mediterranean to project economic, military, and cultural influence. Tehran will have a grateful and reliable trading partner – IRGC companies are already helping with reconstruction projects – and an ally that will allow Iran to utilize the cover of military and economic projects to export the Islamic Revolution through institutions loyal to Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei.

To read UANI’s resource, Iranian Economic Support to the Assad Regime, please click here.

To read UANI’s resource on Hezbollah, please click here.

To read UANI’s resource, Iran’s Ideological Expansion: Syria, please click here.

###