The Danger of the Expiration of the U.N. Arms Embargo on Iran

(New York, N.Y.) – The international arms embargo on Iran under U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), expires in less than six months from today. As the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has warned, Iran “will be permitted to purchase conventional systems it is unable to produce domestically, such as advanced fighter aircraft and main battle tanks.” Additionally, U.N. member states will also no longer be obligated under the resolution to prevent such arms transfers from Iran to its partners and proxies in the region.

Recent reports that the Trump administration is preparing a legal argument that the U.S. remains a JCPOA participant under U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231 is welcome news. Such a move provides the United States with crucial leverage to bring the Islamic Republic back to the table for a better agreement. United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has advocated for such a step as the JCPOA remains too broken to succeed, particularly with Tehran’s significant non-performance to date.

UANI’s resource, JCPOA Sunset Alert, analyzes this destabilizing arms embargo expiration under Resolution 2231. Terrorist organizations like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Al-Ashtar Brigades are the likely beneficiaries. Additionally, it may provide Iran with plausible deniability given Tehran’s ability, effective in 2020, to just purchase foreign weapons and deliver them to Iranian-organized proxies. Iran can claim the weapons were not Iranian in origin and disclaim responsibility.

UANI has also highlighted the weaknesses of the existing JCPOA—for example, the premature closing of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s probe into the possible military dimensions of its nuclear program. Its resource, What’s Wrong with the Nuclear Deal, examines these shortcomings.

To explore UANI’s resource, JCPOA Sunset Alert, please click here.

To explore UANI’s resource, What’s Wrong with the Nuclear Deal, please click here.

###