In Case You Missed It: "Scaling the Pressure Back Now Could Prove a Serious Mistake"

In Case You Missed It: "Scaling the Pressure Back Now Could Prove a Serious Mistake"

The Times Publishes Op-Ed by UANI-ISD Board Member, General Lord Charles Guthrie

Keep up the Pressure and Iran will Buckle

New sanctions on banks, ports and shipping will push Tehran to curb its nuclear ambitions

By General Lord Charles Guthrie, Chief of the Defence Staff
The [UK] Times

May 22, 2012

The Islamic Republic of Iran is often described as an "irrational actor" on the world stage. That is why so many fear Tehran building a nuclear arsenal. But Iran does respond to pressure - and if we intensify that pressure we can make Iran follow its self-interest and give up its nuclear ambitions. ...

The latest packages of sanctions were passed only a few months ago. This summer further tough measures against the Iranian oil and gas industry are due to come into force. They are starting to bite. Recently there has been a dramatic devaluation of the Iranian rial as well as a surge in inflation coupled with a significant fall in Iranian state revenues.

Although domestic mismanagement has contributed to Iran's current economic malaise, international sanctions have finally influenced the decision-making of the leadership of the Islamic Republic. Statements from Iranian officials in the past few months reveal that Tehran is getting worried about the impact of sanctions. ...

Scaling the pressure back now could prove a serious mistake. Iran must conclusively demonstrate that it is limiting its nuclear programme to civilian applications. This is not a political demand but Iran's legal obligation as a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty. ...

Sanctions are a blunt tool and there is ultimately no guarantee that they will force Iran to change course. But they are our best chance of success. There's a precedent for the regime buckling under pressure. Despite its bellicose noises, Iran sued for peace with Iraq in 1988 and accepted a UN ceasefire once it had no prospect of securing a military victory. ...

Lord Guthrie of Craigiebank is the former Chief of the Defence Staff and a member of the advisory board of the Iran initiative of the Institute for Strategic Dialogue/United Against a Nuclear Iran.

Click here to read the entire piece.

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