July 2020 Iran Tanker Tracking

 Observed flows of Iranian crude oil and condensates rose slightly to 264k barrels per day (Bloomberg) in July compared to the previous month. However, there remains a huge discrepancy between what we are able to track and what Iran is still managing to export under the radar. According to Tanker Trackers, there is an estimated additional 860k bpd unaccounted for: that is, “destination unknown.”

Notably, some proportion of the “unknown” column relates to the identification by Tanker Trackers of 13 foreign supertankers engaging in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in Iranian waters. Nearly all of these STS transfers took place north of Lavan Island, an area that trackers do not normally look at because it is neither an export terminal nor a designated STS area. These reported transfers – completely illicit if accurately reported – are currently being checked and verified.

Of the observed shipments, UANI closely tracked the Iranian crude oil tankers STREAM, SNOW and SAHRA (formerly known as SAFOORA). STREAM appeared in the Strait of Malacca on June 29, signaling its destination as the Far East with a draft indicating it was fully laden with oil. On July 8, after two weeks “dark” (with its satellite tracking system turned off, contravening maritime rules and endangering other vessels) STREAM arrived at Huizhou port, China, MaBianZhou CNOOC Crude Terminal. STREAM departed China on July 11 Indicating by its draft that it had delivered its contents successfully.

(Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Mapbox, OpenStreetMap)

SNOW left the Persian Gulf on June 26 full of crude. After a two week gap without turning on its satellite tracker, SNOW appeared on July 11 in the Strait of Malacca. On July 20, SNOW finally arrived at the same Huizhou port and departed on July 23. after delivery.

(Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Mapbox, OpenStreetMap)

Finally, SAHRA (f/k/a SAFOORA) appeared on satellite tracking systems anchored at Karatas Anchorage, Turkey on June 27 with a draft indicating the vessel was partially full. On July 19 SAHRA reappeared near Port Said in Egypt with a draft indicating the vessel was empty. It is likely that SAHRA delivered its cargo to Syria at some period in early July.

(Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Mapbox, OpenStreetMap)

Also in July, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted naval drills in the Persian Gulf.  An interesting potential corollary of the maneuvers was to note Iranian tankers coming out of “AIS retirement” after being offline and non-visible to tracking satellites for approximately 12 months. Given Iran’s poor record of distinguishing between military and commercial targets (such as the downing of the Ukrainian passenger jet earlier this year), it is possible that the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) wanted to guarantee its vessels were not caught in any more friendly fire incidents. These newly online vessels include:

• Suezmax SAMAH, which loaded at Lavan Island on July 12 and was last seen on July 29 off Jask, Iran signaling its destination as Suez. We expect this to be an export to Syria.
• Suezmax SEVIN, which left the Persian Gulf on July 15 with a draft indicating the vessel was fully laden. SEVIN was last seen east of Singapore on July 17 showing its destination as Ulsan, South Korea. However, it is doubtful that this is the true delivery point under current U.S. sanctions.
• Suezmax SABITI, which took on cargo at the Bahregan SPM north of Kharg Island on July 8 where it remains anchored.
• Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) DORENA, which appeared in the Strait of Hormuz on July 28 signaling its destination as East. DORENA had not been seen since 2019. 
• Suezmax SILVIA I, which appeared in the Strait of Malacca on July 28 with a draft indicating it was fully laden. SILVIA I was last seen east of Singapore on July 30 signaling it destination as FOR ORDER.
• VLCC HALTI left the Persian Gulf on July 29 with a draft indicating it was fully laden. HALTI was last seen on August 2anchored off Khor Fakkan.