Why Don’t the Iranian People Rise Up?

The war between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran last month did not produce any sign of regime change in Iran. Israel, of course, made it explicitly clear from the outset that its objective was not regime change in Iran, but that its actions could inadvertently create the conditions for the Iranian people to achieve this. And as Israel gained control of Iran’s skies and successfully started to eliminate much of the Islamic Republic’s senior military leadership and infrastructure, the belief that this could catalyze anti-regime protests gained momentum—not least among the Iranian opposition abroad. Now, however, as the dust from the conflict settles, policymakers, military officials, and many Iranian dissidents and opposition groups are questioning why the Iranian people did not seize this supposedly unique moment to stage an uprising.