Trump ‘has no military way out of war and Iran has better cards’: Experts warn 15-point peace plan is doomed to fail

Jason M Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told The Independent that Trump appeared to be eyeing a much more “expansive” deal, which Iran is defying while it believes it has the upper hand. “President Trump’s 15-point plan is completely different from the JCPOA,” he said. “The JCPOA was a narrowly tailored arms control agreement, which traded temporary constraints on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for permanent sanctions relief.” The new plan, he says, “is more expansive and restrictive on the Iranian regime. Right now, Iran’s regime is publicly defying President Trump’s plan because it thinks that it is winning – and its narrative of victory is being amplified by many in the West.

“Under these conditions, it seeks to create more deterrence to break the war, negotiations, ceasefire, and war again dynamic. But as the regime is prone to do, it will likely overplay its hand.”