CENTCOM Regional Posture

CENTCOM Commander Discusses Iranian Regional Activities Before Congress 

U.S. Central Command’s Commander General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. testified before Congress this week, discussing CENTCOM’s regional posture. General McKenzie described Iran as the “greatest single day-to-day threat to regional security and stability.” This, he said, stemmed from Iran’s “pursui[t] of regional hegemony, breaching its…JCPOA commitments, and posing a conventional threat to partner nations while facilitating and conducting coercive and malign activities.”

General McKenzie then proceeded to detail Iran’s regional activities in specific countries, including Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. In Syria, he noted that Iran had been “less restrained in attacks against Combined Joint Task Force-Operation INHERENT RESOLVE (CJTF-OIR),” and that Tehran was using the country as a “critical hub and resupply route for maintaining its campaign against Israel,” and to continue supplying its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah. General McKenzie also noted Iran’s “decreasing tolerance for continued U.S. presence in Syria, especially as pro-Assad regime forces gain more control over the country.” As a result, he said, Iran and its proxies and affiliates were “increasing their capabilities and planning to target U.S. and partner interests, as evidenced by multiple indirect fire attacks against U.S.-associated bases.”

Turning to Yemen, General McKenzie described the Houthis as “the least restrained and most destabilizing of Iran’s affiliates in the region,” due to, among other things, their near-daily ballistic missile and drone attacks on neighboring Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

Lebanon and Hezbollah 

U.N. Secretary General Expresses Concern Over Arms Transfers to Hezbollah 

The U.N. Secretary General António Guterres wrote in advance of a U.N. Security Council closed door consultation this week on continued violations of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which set ceasefire terms for the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, that “allegations of arms transfers to non-state actors continue and remain of serious concern.” He added that “no progress was achieved with respect to the disarming of armed groups. Hezbollah continued to acknowledge that it maintains military capabilities.” This week, Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan also warned the U.N. secretary general that there are “troubling developments which threaten the peace and security of Israel and Lebanon, as well as the region as a whole.” These include “efforts by Hezbollah to obtain advanced weapon systems, including UAVs and Precision-Guided Missiles.” 

German Police Close Hezbollah-Linked Mosque 

The Jerusalem Post reported this week that police in Münster, Germany on Thursday stormed the Hezbollah-linked Imam Mahdi mosque and an affiliated center because intelligence determined that the mosque and its center are violating the German constitution. Bild also reported that German authorities raided apartments of two leaders of the “Fatime Versammlung” association, which is affiliated with the Imam Mahdi mosque. A separate search also took place in Delmenhorst. 

Israel and the Palestinian Territories 

Iran Launches Cyberattack Against Israel, Launches Missile Attack on U.S. Targets in Erbil 

Several Israeli governmental websites went down on Monday, in an apparent cyberattack that has been described by Israeli defense established sources as the largest ever carried out against Israel. The websites of the Interior, Health, Justice, and Welfare Ministries had been taken offline, as was that of the Office of the Prime Minister. A defense establishment source expressed his belief that a state actor or large organization carried out the attack, but could not yet determine the culprit – though Iran seemed the most likely actor to have carried out the attack, given the animosity between Jerusalem and Tehran and recent tensions between the two countries. 

The day prior, Iran fired 12 missiles near the U.S. consulate located in Iraq’s northern city of Erbil. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later released a statement saying their target on Sunday was an Israeli “strategic center” located in Erbil, though at least one local Iraqi Kurdish official denied the IRGC’s claims, alleging that the building “is the expensive private residence of KAR Group’s CEO Shekh Bazz.” 

There was speculation that the Iranian attacks were in response to prior Israeli moves. Iranian state television reported on Monday that the country’s security forces had thwarted a planned sabotage attack at the country’s Fordow nuclear site by a network recruited by Israel. An aerial attack was also allegedly carried out by Israel against Iran’s drone network last month, with six Israeli drones reportedly striking a drone base near the western Iranian city of Kermanshah in mid-February. Hundreds of Iranian drones were estimated to have been destroyed in the Israeli airstrike. Israel has not admitted responsibility. 

Israel, UAE Ask U.S. for Security Guarantee if New Iran Nuclear Deal Signed 

The UAE and Israel are lobbying the United States to formulate a new security strategy for the Middle East should a nuclear deal be agreed upon with Iran. Jerusalem and Abu Dhabi are requesting a coherent approach to regional defense from Washington, which includes boosting missile defense capabilities and intelligence sharing. Israel and the UAE have approached Biden administration officials separately but are coordinating amid concern that Iran would use an oil windfall to channel more funds to armed proxy groups around the Middle East. 

East Jerusalem Residents Charged With Hamas Ties 

Four residents of East Jerusalem were indicted on Friday over alleged ties to Hamas, with Israeli police prosecutors charging that some had planned attacks in the coming month after receiving weapons training and having met with Hamas officials in Turkey. One of the accused, Khaled Sabah, was reportedly appointed in 2019 by Hamas officials in Turkey as the Hamas treasurer in Jerusalem. Such an indictment comes at a sensitive moment in Israeli-Turkish relations as Israel’s president just returned from a visit to Turkey—the first such trip since 2008—to improve relations.

Iraq 

Iraqi Officials Condemn Iran’s Attack on Erbil 

After Iran launched at least 12 ballistic missiles at the Kurdistan Region of Iraq on March 13, Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi traveled to Erbil to meet with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) officials. Both Kadhimi and KRG President Nechirvan Barzani described the attack as a “serious development” while a statement by the Iraqi Ministerial Council for National Security stressed Baghdad’s refusal to allow “its lands to attack neighboring countries.” The KRG expressed pointed frustration at Tehran saying “Iran has been repeatedly targeting the Kurdistan region and the silence from the international community is of great concern. This silence from the international community is motivating for more future attacks.” Muqtada al-Sadr, whose political party won a majority of seats in the last Iraqi parliamentary election, called on the Iraqi government to “submit a protest note to the United Nations and the Iranian ambassador asking for guarantees that [such an attack] will not be repeated in the future.” Later, Iraq’s Foreign Ministry summoned Iran’s Ambassador to Iraq Iraj Masjedi, an IRGC officer himself who is sanctioned by the United States, for a “flagrant violation of [Iraqi] sovereignty” and to “convey the government’s protests over the missile strikes” which had caused “material losses” and “damage to civilian installations and houses.” 

Rocket Attack on Iraq’s Balad Airbase 

On Thursday, Iraq’s Security Media Cell reported that four rockets fell in open areas in Balad Air Base, leaving no damages or casualties. Balad Air Base hosts U.S. contractors and Iraqi fighter jets. Iran-backed militias have previously targeted Balad Air Base with similar attacks.

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