TOP STORIES
Iran’s Attempts to Get Around the Hormuz Blockade Are Hitting a Wall | Wall Street Journal
“Iran vowed to respond to a U.S. blockade by pushing more trade overland. On the ground, it isn’t going according to plan. Hundreds of Iranian truck drivers are currently stuck at Iran’s border with Pakistan, unable to send their goods into Tehran’s neighbor. They say they are facing worsening bureaucratic hurdles and costs, many caused by their own government. The same thing is happening at Iran’s land borders with Turkey, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, dealing Tehran a self-inflicted blow and throttling trade through its few remaining economic release valves.”
US Officials Met Iran-Backed Houthis in Oman over the Weekend, Sources Say | Reuters
“US officials met representatives of Yemen’s Houthis in Oman over the weekend, five sources familiar with the matter said, days after the Iran-backed militia seized a strategic stretch of the Red Sea coast in a sweeping offensive that routed Saudi-backed forces. . . . In the meeting, which one source said took place on Sunday, the Houthis told US officials they had no intention of attacking American vessels and that they were committed to the 2025 ceasefire with the US, two sources said. One of the sources, a Yemeni, said the militia group also said they would not attack Israeli ships or any commercial vessels, except those belonging to Saudi Arabia.”
Trump to Hold Iran Talks with Gulf Leaders Next Week | Axios
“President Trump is expected to hold a meeting with Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York next Tuesday to discuss the next steps in the war with Iran, three sources with direct knowledge tell Axios. . . . The meeting is expected to focus on U.S. ideas for a postwar strategy as Trump and his senior team work on a day-after plan expected to be finalized after the midterms.
UANI IN THE NEWS
“The Iranian regime is confronting an unprecedented American pressure campaign. For the first time since 1979, an economic campaign in the form of a US naval blockade and punishing sanctions coupled with military losses after Operation Epic Fury are squeezing Tehran. There are additional avenues that the US government and its allies can use to further punish the Islamic Republic: by launching a diplomatic isolation campaign called Operation Diplomatic Outcast and countering the Iranian regime’s information warfare.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
US Treasury Gathers Global Financial Institutions to Advance Iran Sanctions | Reuters
“The U.S. Treasury said on Wednesday its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network had convened a meeting of global financial institutions to advance Operation Economic Outcast, its recent push to isolate Tehran and limit its ability to fund the war in the Middle East. ‘The event armed financial institutions with the information they need to shut down revenue streams and procurement networks tied to the Iranian regime,’ Treasury said in a statement.”
From Halkbank to Golden Global: Iran Sanctions and Turkey’s Banking Ties | Iran International
“Turkey has stepped in to take control of shareholder rights at a bank accused by Washington of helping Tehran turn oil revenues into cash and gold: the latest chapter in a decades-long story linking Turkish banking, US sanctions and Iranian money.”
MILITARY MATTERS & SHIPPING
Trump Says ‘Hopefully We Are Towards End’ of Iran War | Reuters
“‘Well, hopefully we are towards the end of the war,’ Trump told reporters . . . ‘They want to make a deal. We'll see how that works out,’ he said on Iran, reiterating past comments. Trump also said he had heard from Iran ‘directly,’ without elaborating.”
“The Islamic Republic—and its menace—will end only when the regime collapses. Until then, terrorism abroad and mass killings at home will persist. The nuclear-weapons program will likely rise from the rubble since nukes surely would have prevented American and Israeli attacks. Control of the strait gives Tehran leverage over many enemies but doesn’t provide a perfect defense (or offense), especially against Israel. But if the clerical oligarchs and the Revolutionary Guards lose the strait, they will stand before their angry people bereft of accomplishment and legitimacy. Power once demystified is harder to sustain. If the White House doesn’t deny the regime this victory by fighting and winning the Battle of Hormuz, then Mr. Trump has surely lost this war. At that point, only divine intervention or an economic implosion could destroy the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Islamic Republic.”
Iran’s Hormuz Leverage Is Dwindling | Stephanie Campbell in the Washington Post
“Even as Iran steps up its attacks on U.S. naval vessels, firing ballistic missiles at an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer early this month, a larger reality is coming into focus: Tehran’s moment of maximum leverage in the Strait of Hormuz has passed. . . . Iran’s leverage depends not simply on how much damage it can impose, but on how effectively it can convert that damage into concessions as it absorbs costs and its adversaries develop alternatives.”
PROXY WARS
Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Claim Shooting Down Saudi F-15 Jet Fighter | Wall Street Journal
“Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said Wednesday that they shot down a Saudi F-15 jet fighter and released video footage that appeared to show charred aircraft debris, as the deepening conflict on the Arabian peninsula worsens energy-supply disruptions.”
Who Will Stop the Houthis? | Wall Street Journal Editorial
“There are now risks all around, but the biggest is if the world concludes that Iran and the Houthis are defeating Mr. Trump, the U.S. and its Middle Eastern allies. Someone needs to stop the Houthis.”
DIPLOMACY
China Presses Iran to Help Rein in Houthis After Saudi Appeal, Sources Say | Reuters
“China has privately asked Tehran to help rein in Yemen’s Houthis after an appeal to Beijing by Saudi Arabia following the Iran-backed group’s military blitz in the past week, according to three Iranian sources familiar with the matter. . . . The sources said Tehran’s response was that stability and peace in the region depend on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. Chinese officials did not issue any explicit threats or indicate that Beijing would seek to pressure Tehran economically if it failed to use its influence over the Houthis, the three Iranian sources said.”
NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Calls to Quit NPT Grow in Iran as Critics Warn of Strategic Trap | Iran International
“Calls for Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty are gaining ground among hardliners after the IAEA referred the country to the UN Security Council and its nuclear chief was barred from attending the agency’s annual conference in Vienna. The growing debate has exposed a divide within Iran’s political establishment between those who see NPT membership as offering little protection and others who warn that withdrawal would surrender one of Tehran’s remaining diplomatic and legal advantages.”
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
‘One of the Kindest People’: Taraneh, 21, Facing Execution in Iran | Al-Monitor
“On the nights of January 8 and 9, twin sisters Taraneh and Romina Rahimi joined thousands of others in protests against the Iranian authorities in the central city of Isfahan. The 20-year-olds chanted anti-government slogans in the city'’ Shohada Square during two nights of rallies that took place across the country and were suppressed in a crackdown that rights groups say left thousands dead. A week later, both young women were suddenly arrested and their home raided, according to relatives based outside the country, who accuse the authorities of torturing the twins and putting them in danger by failing to take care of medical conditions. In July, along with 14 other people, they were hauled before a court set up inside an Isfahan prison and accused of involvement in the deaths of a member of the Revolutionary Guards and a homeless person during the protests. Having marked their 21st birthdays behind bars, Taraneh was a month later sentenced to death on charges of ‘waging war against God’ and Romina to 36 years in prison, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists (HRANA) NGO.”
“Hard-liners in Iran’s ruling establishment increasingly demand a clampdown on women’s dressing habits. But top leaders caution against triggering a public backlash at a time of war, when U.S. attacks, sanctions and a naval blockade are pushing the crippled economy toward collapse.”
CYBER WARFARE
U.S. Probes Iran Link to Cyberattacks on Texas-Bound Energy Tankers | Wall Street Journal
“The U.S. is investigating whether Iran is behind the cyberattacks of two energy tankers bound for American ports, said U.S. officials familiar with the probe, which has sparked concerns that Tehran is looking for novel ways to widen the war in the Middle East.”
CONGRESS & IRAN
House Passes Russia and Iran Sanctions Bill Championed by Sen. Lindsey Graham | ABC News
“The House passed a Russia and Iran sanctions bill championed by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham Wednesday night—sending the measure to President Donald Trump’ The package would impose primary and secondary sanctions on Russia and other countries that support Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions target Russian political officials and oligarchs, banks and financial institutions, and the Russian shadow fleet, according to the bill. . . . It also includes a provision to prevent a lapse in sanction authority that restricts funding for Iran’s energy and weapons sectors.”
“‘Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. That was an important objective of American foreign policy for the last half-century,’ [House Speaker Mike Johnson] said during a press conference . . . ‘That’s taken care of, and now we got to get gas prices down.’”
GOP Lawmakers Unhappy with Lack of Progress on Iran War | The Hill
“Senate Republicans aren’t happy with the lack of progress in the Iran war and what they say is the administration’s failure to identify clear objectives to end the conflict.”
EUROPE & IRAN
Sweden Expels Iran Embassy Employee over Anti-Jewish Threats | Agence France-Presse
“Sweden said Wednesday it had expelled an Iranian embassy employee and summoned the country’s ambassador, accusing Tehran of making threats against Jewish and Israeli interests in Sweden. ‘We know that Iran, over a long period of time, has conducted activities that threaten security in and against Sweden, targeting both individuals who oppose the Iranian regime and various Jewish and Israeli interests in our country,’ Justice Minister Gunnar Strommer said . . . ‘This has, among other things, been done by making use of criminal networks.’”
AFGHANISTAN & IRAN
Impoverished by War in Iran, Afghan Migrants Return to Taliban Rule | Reuters
“For decades, Iran’s industrialized and much larger economy offered Afghans an escape from poverty and, in the 1990s and again since 2021, from the harsh rule of the Taliban. Now, Iran’s economy has collapsed so severely that many Afghans said they saw returning as their only option.”