TOP STORIES
“The US military escorted 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, marking a wartime high as Iran and the US exchanged a new round of strikes on Tuesday, two US officials familiar with the operations told CNN. Prior to the launch of the war just over six months ago, roughly 20 million barrels a day were passing through the strait. . . . The US military expects to continue conducting offensive strikes near the strait, in part, because Iran has demonstrated it has the capacity to reconstitute its capabilities in a way that requires persistent maintenance, the second official said. Conducting those strikes amounts to ‘mowing the grass’ or a game of ‘whack-a-mole,’ in service of degrading Iran’s ability to threaten commercial ships.”
Saudi Arabia Says Iran Attacked Vessel in Hormuz, Killing Two Sailors | Reuters
“Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, said on Wednesday that an Iranian attack on an oil tanker owned by its national shipping company had killed two Filipino seafarers.”
Hegseth Extends Mideast Deployments Into 2027, Escalating Strain on Troops | Wall Street Journal
“When the U.S. launched its campaign against Iran six months ago, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised a quick, decisive blow that would avoid a long entanglement. Now, he is quietly extending troop deployments in a sign that the conflict could drag well into next year, according to people familiar with the matter. It is part of an open-ended military strategy designed to give President Trump options in the war, the people said. But the deployment of 19 warships, air-defense units, fighter squadrons and paratroopers across the region is straining servicemembers and their families and creating a maintenance backlog that could take years to unwind, the people said. . . . Privately, Trump is having discussions with senior aides about whether to declare the Iran war over, U.S. officials said, noting Trump has said he favors the idea. Trump also tells aides that he believes sticking with economic pressure will eventually force the regime either to dismantle its nuclear program or collapse, they said.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
“Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital that ‘Iran and Russia have had a long-time partnership that is strategically important for both countries.’ ‘Russia views Iran as a cudgel to use against America, and Iran has in recent years especially viewed Russia as a lifeline with respect to advancing its military, providing economic support, providing political support, most importantly at the U.N. Security Council as Russia is a permanent member. So that’s how the partnership serves both countries’ interests,’ he said.”
Iranian Tankers Wait at Sea Off Sri Lanka and Malaysia Due to U.S. Blockade | Maritime Executive
“The Financial Times, quoting the NGO UANI (United Against Nuclear Iran), has also identified a further 48 tankers linked to trading in Iranian crude, which are anchored in the long-established ship-to-ship transfer box east of Johore and just outside the Malaysian Exclusive Economic Zone. There appear to be significantly more tankers at anchor in this area currently, and in a bigger box than when The Maritime Executive last looked in June last year.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
US Eyes Airlines, Digital Assets as Iran-Related Targets, Bessent Says | Reuters
“U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday said airlines, the maritime industry and digital assets could be possible targets as the Trump administration continues its planned efforts to squeeze Iran’s economy. Bessent, asked about Russian support for Iran in an interview on Fox News following a G20 gathering in North Carolina this week, also warned ‘everyone’ against backing Tehran.
“Allies of the US will support the country’s efforts to ‘economically asphyxiate’ Iran, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Tuesday morning. Iran is in ‘economic death throes,’ and will soon be ready to make a deal with the US, he added.”
MILITARY MATTERS & SHIPPING
Trump Says Iran Strikes to Be Short, Asserts Hormuz Control | Bloomberg
“US President Donald Trump said renewed attacks on Iran would likely be short-lived, reiterating his claim Washington controls the Strait of Hormuz after fresh fighting spiked energy prices and rekindled fears of an open-ended war. Asked on Wednesday how long the bombing campaign could last, Trump told reporters on Wednesday, ‘I don’t think too long.’”
Rubio Downplays Russian Aid to Iran amid War: ‘Nothing’ Impeding US Objectives | The Hill
“Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday downplayed a New York Times report about Russian aid going to Iran, saying that “nothing” has impeded U.S. objectives against Iran. ‘Obviously, Russia has their own hands full with Ukraine and that effort there,’ Rubio [said] . . . ‘But I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: nothing that anyone is providing Iran is in any way impeding our ability to act as necessary to protect the United States.’”
US Military ‘Never Targets Civilians, Unlike the IRGC,’ Centcom Says | Iran International
“US Central Command said Wednesday it was looking into Iranian state media reports that a US strike hit a wedding in southern Iran, while rejecting allegations that American forces target civilians. ‘We’re aware of the reports, which originated from Iranian state media, and we are looking into them. The U.S. military never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC,’ US Navy Captain Tim Hawkins, a CENTCOM spokesperson, told Iran International.”
Netanyahu Warns That an Attack from Tehran Would Be ‘One of Their Last Decisions' | Jerusalem Post
“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that a potential attack from Tehran would be ‘one of their last decisions,’ as he addressed the ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip and threats from Iran during a visit to the Afiki Daat Hesder Yeshiva in Sderot on Wednesday.”
“Defense Minister Israel Katz warns that if Iran attacks Israel, the military will target all of the regime’s infrastructure, ‘including energy infrastructure.’”
REGIME CHANGE
Trump Revives Iran Regime Change Speculation with Cryptic Call for People to ‘Rise Up’ | Fox News
“President Donald Trump revived speculation over regime change in Iran Tuesday night, openly asking when Iranians would ‘rise up and fight’ as his administration intensified military and economic pressure on a government US officials say is increasingly vulnerable.”
DIPLOMACY
Witkoff Meets Powerful UAE Official amid Crackdown on Iran | Axios
“White House Envoy Steve Witkoff met last weekend with the national security adviser of the United Arab Emirates to discuss next steps on Iran, according to two sources with knowledge of the meeting. . . . The talks, which weren't announced by the White House and haven't been reported until now, took place amid the Trump administration’s push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while choking Iran economically.”
PROXY WARS & LEBANON
Iran Warns US Against Israeli Attack on South Lebanon Ridge Held by Hezbollah, Sources Say | Reuters
“Iran has warned the United States that it would respond forcefully to an Israeli offensive on a mountainous ridge in southern Lebanon where Iranian military personnel are holed up alongside Hezbollah fighters, three officials briefed on the message told Reuters.”
“Members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have allegedly been using the identities of deceased Lebanese citizens to enter Lebanon secretly, according to a US source cited by Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya. Washington has been monitoring the movement of IRGC personnel between Iran and Lebanon for several months, the report said. The alleged operatives are believed to have obtained entry documents bearing the names of deceased people, primarily individuals associated with Hezbollah’s support base.”
“The head of the powerful Badr militia, Hadi al-Amiri, appears to have admitted that his group was behind the killing of thousands of protesters in Iraq in October 2019.”
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
“UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres came under fire from watchdogs after he failed to publicly address the killing of protesters in January and executions carried out by the Iranian regime during a meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier this week. . . . The UN’s official readout of the meeting said Guterres and Pezeshkian discussed the humanitarian and economic consequences of the conflict between Iran and the US. However, the issue of Iran’s treatment of protesters and detainees did not appear in the readout. A UN spokesperson confirmed to investigative journalist Efrat Lachter that the issue had not been raised during the meeting, while asserting that Guterres had raised it with Iranian officials on other occasions.”