TOP STORIES
Trump Cancels Iran Attack, Citing Progress in Negotiations | Axios
“President Trump said Saturday night that he has called off a potential attack on Iran due to progress in negotiations between the two nations. . . ‘I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL,’ the president wrote on his Truth Social account. Trump added that Iran and ‘other Middle Eastern Countries’ had asked the U.S. to hold off on attacking ‘in that the perimeters of a deal had been agreed to.’ ‘This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat,’ he wrote.”
Trump Says Iran Talks Set for Monday as Tehran and Oman Discuss Strait of Hormuz Deal | Guardian
“Donald Trump said talks with Iran will happen on Monday but declined to set a deadline for an agreement after earlier saying he had called off an imminent attack in the hope of quickly reaching a deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz and resolve the impasse over Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. For its part, Iran said it was nearing a deal with Oman over a new route through the strait of Hormuz, where a tanker reported an explosion nearby on Sunday, underscoring the continued volatility of the strategic waterway.”
Iran Says No Current Talks with U.S. | Reuters
“Iran is not currently holding talks with the United States and is now in discussions with Oman over a temporary safe route through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday. Baghaei added that reaching an agreement with Oman is not sufficient to reopen the strait, as the situation will remain unchanged while U.S. aaggression’ continues.”
DIPLOMACY
Gulf States Pressed Trump to Hold off on Iran Strikes and Pursue Talks | Wall Street Journal
“Behind the scenes, Gulf countries are frustrated with what they see as a lack of a clear strategy from the U.S. as the war drags on, subjecting their territories to frequent Iranian attacks, people familiar with the matter said. Gulf allies have asked the U.S. in recent weeks for more air-defense interceptors and continued guarantees that the U.S. military will protect them if the tit-for-tat fighting drags on, officials have said. . . . Not all Gulf countries are pushing for de-escalation. Some, such as the United Arab Emirates, have lobbied Trump in recent days to take more decisive action against Iran, according to senior Gulf officials familiar with the discussion. The officials have suggested Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps won’t compromise until the U.S. escalates, takes control over the strait and perhaps considers ground operations.”
Trump on Making a Deal with Iran: ‘I’m Not Looking to Kill People’ | The Hill
“‘We’re ready to go any time we want,’ he said about the potential for the U.S. striking back at Iran. ‘Would I rather make a deal? I’m not looking to kill people. People die. A lot of people die and we don’t want that.’ He said leaders from the Gulf countries ‘much prefer a deal’ as opposed to a potential refugee crisis that could spill across the borders of the Gulf states. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was among the leaders requesting that Trump give diplomacy a chance, speaking on Saturday before Trump said the allies reached the ‘perimeters’ of a deal.”
Trump’s Latest Iran ‘DEAL’ | Wall Street Journal Editorial
“By now it’s clear that this up and down, back and forth, from war of annihilation to peace in our time is Mr. Trump’s chaotic way of war. He may think it keeps the enemy guessing, but it also keeps the American public unsure of what his war aims are or how he hopes to achieve them. No wonder the polls show voters have soured on the war.. . . Has Iran now finally agreed to terms that can plausibly be called a U.S. victory, as Mr. Trump’s Truth Social post suggested? Recall that when the MOU was signed, Mr. Trump’s negotiators hailed the result, and claimed the regime had turned a ‘new leaf,’ as Vice President JD Vance put it, and wanted to become a ‘normal country,’ despite 47 years of promoting terror and regional revolution. As ever, it pays to watch what Iran does, not what the regime and Mr. Trump say it will do.”
“The United States and Israel have yet to learn that the Iranian regime is not made of papier-mâché, and the Islamic republic’s confrontational ideology is unlikely to dissipate anytime soon. The men in uniform showed no hesitation in killing thousands of their compatriots in January—a national trauma that Iranian society has yet to fully process. They will continue to practice a politics of performance for domestic audiences even as they recognize that the regime’s social contract is both morally bankrupt and fiscally unsustainable. In 1978 members of Mansouroun gunned down my father on a road in Ahvaz. I could never have imagined that many of the men who helped oversee his killing—or their surviving comrades—would, nearly half a century later, become the principal adversaries and interlocutors of my adopted homeland. Like everyone else, I don’t know how this war is going to end. But after a lifetime of observing these men, I do know this: Expecting meekness or diplomatic finesse from them is a dangerous illusion.”
MILITARY MATTERS & SHIPPING
As Cease-Fire Teetered, Iran Plotted a Wider War With Aid of Its Proxies | New York Times
“The attacks [by Iran’s proxies] are part of what two senior Iranian officials depicted as a step-by-step plan, devised in secret during a fleeting cease-fire this spring, that would use Iran’s allies to escalate attacks if the United States intensified its assaults. The goal, the officials said, was to make the war as costly as possible for President Trump. . . . During the short-lived cease-fire, Iranian generals covertly strategized with proxy militia commanders on how to expand the war and raise its cost for Washington, according to the two officials, both familiar with the planning as members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Senior commanders from the Quds Force, the external arm of the Guards that fosters proxy militias, held virtual conference calls with commanders from Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shiite armed groups in Iraq, the officials said. Quds Force commanders and advisers have also been working closely with the militias on the ground, according to the two officials. The Guards have tried to fill the void in Hezbollah’s ranks, which have been decimated by war with Israel, while also serving in Iraq on bases operated by Shiite militias.”
“Israel was left in the dark for hours about an expected joint attack with the US against Iran yesterday, senior [Israeli] defense and diplomatic officials tell Channel 12. . . . ‘The feeling was, they left us behind,’ says [an] official, after Trump posted that he was cancelling the attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and other senior officials also discovered Trump was calling off the strike from his Truth Social post. . . . Israel believes Trump could change his mind in an instant, and Israeli forces remain on high alert, reports Channel 12.”
Up to 5 Million Barrels of Oil Flowing Through Hormuz Daily—CNN | Iran International
“Between three million and five million barrels of crude oil per day are flowing out of the Persian Gulf through the southern shipping lane near Oman despite sporadic Iranian drone attacks, CNN reported, citing shipping sources. . . . An empty tanker, the Velos Amber, appeared to face an Iranian warning action while entering the Persian Gulf through the Omani lane on Sunday, shipping sources said. The vessel continued its journey and was off the UAE coast early Monday.”
US Military Asks Troops for ‘Creative and Unconventional’ Ideas to Punish Iran | CNN
“The request from a senior officer at the US military command carrying out President Donald Trump’s war with Iran came in an email: We need ideas. ‘We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran,’ an officer in US Central Command’s intelligence branch wrote in a message sent Wednesday to a broad group of military analysts, according to a source familiar with the message. . . . Trump has been considering strikes akin to a “fireworks” display, another source said, which could hit either the same or similar sites as those targeted a year ago, in the hopes of a symbolic victory that would allow him to exit the war without actually accomplishing one of his initial aims: ridding Iran of its nuclear program.”
Kuwait Says It Downed Iranian Drones as Mideast Braces for Possible Escalation | New York Times
“Kuwait said that Iranian forces had launched a wave of drone attacks on its shores early Saturday . . . The Kuwaiti military said that it had detected and destroyed multiple drones in its airspace since dawn, and that Iran had targeted critical infrastructure in the country’s north. A military spokesman said that falling shrapnel had damaged vehicles on the Kuwaiti island of Bubiyan, near the Iraqi border, but no casualties were reported.”
Tanker Carrying Qatari LNG Struck While Transiting Hormuz | Bloomberg
“A liquefied natural gas tanker carrying a shipment from Qatar was struck by a projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to security intelligence firms and ship tracking data, threatening to further disrupt deliveries of the super-chilled fuel through the key waterway.”
CENTCOM Diverts 35 Ships in Iran Blockade | IranWire
“United States Central Command, or CENTCOM, announced that since the start of the recent naval blockade targeting Iranian coasts and ports, US forces have diverted 35 commercial vessels, rendered two ships inoperable, and boarded two others for inspection.”
IRGC Attacks Iranian Kurdish Party Offices in Iraqi Kurdistan | IranWire
“In a continuation of missile and drone strikes carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against Iranian Kurdish opposition parties based in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, drone strikes targeted the offices and encampments of the Organization of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle (Khabat) in the Bashiqa and Topzawa regions early on Friday morning, July 31. According to a member of the organisation’s central committee, the attacks caused no casualties but resulted in extensive structural damage to buildings and residential homes.’
China Helps Iran Chip Away at US Air Superiority Despite Xi’s No-Arms Pledge | Iran International
“Xi Jinping’s promise to Donald Trump that China would not arm Iran is being tested by Tehran’s alleged pursuit of Chinese MANPADS, relatively cheap weapons that could make future US and Israeli air campaigns more dangerous and expensive. In April, an American F-15 fighter jet was shot down over southwestern Iran, likely by a Chinese-made shoulder-fired missile. Both crew members ejected and were rescued, one of them after two days on the ground in the foothills of the Zagros Mountains. . . . Iran has reportedly been sourcing these weapons from China, through schemes Washington has been watching for months.”
Fatal Drone Attack on Iranian Army Base in Marivan | IranWire
“In an armed confrontation in the border village of Sianav, Marivan County, one Iranian Army, or Artesh, soldier was killed and another sustained severe injuries. The Islamic Republic of Iran Army reported that the assault was carried out by PJAK, the Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan, using two suicide micro-drones and RPG fire to target a base belonging to the 328th Infantry Brigade of Marivan.”
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Executes 20-Year-Old Protester as Fears Grow for Other Detainees | Iran International
“Iranian authorities executed 20-year-old protester Arvin Kheirkhah at Shahroud prison on Saturday morning, according to information obtained by Iran International, amid concerns that several other detainees could also face execution. Kheirkhah was arrested during the January protests and sentenced to death by a Revolutionary Court on charges including moharebeh, or ‘waging war against God.’ He was transferred to solitary confinement on Wednesday ahead of the execution.”
Iran Executes Two People Accused of Spying for Israel | Reuters
“Iran executed two of its citizens on Monday on charges of espionage and cooperation with Israel, Iranian state media reported, amid an increase in executions for offences relating to national security. Omid Behzad and Pouria Safvat were accused of sending Israel the coordinates of military and security sites as well as images and information during a brief war last summer and during the latest conflict, judiciary news outlet Mizan reported.”
“Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said authorities rushed to announce Ali Khamenei’s death and call supporters onto the streets after ‘overseas media’ broke the news, fearing the situation on the streets could otherwise ‘take a completely different turn.’ . . . Ghalibaf said officials instead decided to announce Khamenei’s death around dawn, while people were eating their pre-dawn Ramadan meal, and immediately call supporters onto the streets.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Fuel Shortages and Banking Paralysis Deepen Iran's Economic Crisis | Alhurra
“A severe fuel shortage, a crippled banking sector and rapidly accelerating inflation have pushed Iran’s economy deeper into crisis as the war drags on, exposing the country’s growing financial fragility. With fuel rationing tightening, banks unable to provide basic services, and many Iranians struggling to access wages or savings, the economic strain already caused by years of sanctions is now compounded and intensified by the conflict.”
CYBER WARFARE
Scope of Hacks on U.S. Water Supply Widens as Evidence Points to Iran | New York Times
“The scope of cyberattacks on U.S. water systems has grown to include at least seven states and may be far wider, officials and experts warned, as the authorities raced to safeguard the nation’s water supply against an assault that increasingly appeared to be the work of Iran. While there were no indications that any water supply had been altered or made unsafe to drink, state and local officials throughout the country were on high alert for potential problems in vulnerable computers that are commonly used to monitor and adjust water quality, including chemical-treatment levels and water pressure. Minnesota first publicly reported the attacks, and now Michigan says its systems have also been targeted.”
Trump Blames Governor, Not Iran, for Minnesota Cyberattack | USA Today
“President Donald Trump said he does not believe Iran is responsible for a recent cyberattack on water systems in Minnesota, putting him at odds with U.S. officials who reportedly suspect Iranian hackers probably orchestrated the attack.”
CONGRESS & IRAN
‘No Deal Is Just Fine,’ Sen. John N. Kennedy Says on Iran Peace Talks | Politico
“Sen. John N. Kennedy on Sunday indicated that he would prefer no peace agreement with Iran before approving ‘a bad deal.’ . . . ‘I would maintain the status quo as long as I could. Sanctions, blockade. I would bomb Pickaxe Mountain, try to reach any fissile material and centrifuges underneath,’ Kennedy said.”