U.S. Pressure on Iran Oil Exports is Working—UANI Findings Challenge Misleading Narratives on Gulf Blockade

(New York, NY)—UANI Chairman Jeb Bush and UANI CEO Ambassador Mark D. Wallace issued the following joint statement:

“A dominant narrative has quickly emerged in parts of the media and policy community claiming that renewed U.S. pressure on Iranian oil exports is not working. Commentators have pointed to broadly similar April export figures and concluded that the administration’s blockade and enforcement measures are failing to meaningfully disrupt Iranian crude flows. That interpretation is premature and, especially if prevailing conditions continue, flatly incorrect.”

Commentators are relying on simplistic topline monthly data without examining what has happened since the blockade commenced on April 13. April export totals largely reflect cargoes that had already been set in motion prior to April 13. Tankers already at sea continue voyages, inventories keep moving, and reporting lags obscure rapid changes unfolding. Since the announcement of the blockade, fewer tankers have been observed loading at Kharg Island: 32 in the period until the blockade, and only 15 since. Fewer loaded tankers have made the voyage from Iran outside of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman: 41 vessels were detected making voyages before the blockade, and only six voyages have been observed since the blockade announcement. Additionally, 23 Iranian-flagged cargo ships have laid up at anchorages across the Indo-Pacific, stopping their shipments, instead of returning to Iran.

Governor Bush and Ambassador Wallace continued:

“The more relevant question is not whether April averages appeared broadly stable. The relevant question is what has happened to Iranian export activity since the blockade started in the middle of April. By that measure, the picture looks very different.”

UANI Senior Advisor Charlie Brown noted:

“UANI’s tanker tracking increasingly suggests that Iranian exports have slowed dramatically in recent weeks. Since April 13, flows appear to have fallen significantly. If current conditions persist, particularly if pressure remains sustained following President Trump’s meetings with Chinese President Xi this week, May export numbers could be shockingly low compared to prior months.”

UANI Research Director Daniel Roth added:

“The rush to declare the blockade ineffective says more about the impatience of observers and the politicized nature of commentary than the recent reality of Iran’s oil trade. If current trends continue, the next round of export figures is highly likely to look radically different from the simplistic April toplines now being cited as evidence of U.S. failure.”

Click here to see UANI’s extensive tanker tracking resources.