TOP STORIES
Trump Rejects Iran’s Offer, Says Blockade Stays Until Nuclear Deal | Axios
“President Trump told Axios he’s going to keep Iran under a naval blockade until the regime agrees to a deal that addresses U.S. concerns about its nuclear program. . . . Trump is rejecting an Iranian proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, while postponing nuclear talks to a later stage.”
Iran’s $800M Oil Smuggling Scheme Uses Tankers Posing as Iraqi Ships to Dodge Blockade | Fox News
“Sanctioned tankers disguised as Iraqi vessels are moving hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian crude as President Donald Trump doubled down on the port blockade to squeeze Tehran’s oil lifeline, according to maritime intelligence. Windward AI claimed Wednesday that a group of U.S.-sanctioned tankers are falsifying their location data to come off as anchored off Iraq while secretly loading Iranian oil at Iranian ports.”
“Iran’s national rial currency dropped to a record low Wednesday while a U.S. naval blockade has increased pressure on its already battered economy amid a fragile ceasefire. Experts warn that the rial’s slide is likely to further fuel inflation in a country where many imported goods, from food and medicine to electronics and raw materials, are affected by the dollar rate.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
“On Wednesday, a few hours after the horrific knife attack on two British Jewish men in Golders Green, north London, a video appeared on Telegram, apparently from the group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya, making an unsubstantiated claim of responsibility. . . . Jason Brodsky, policy director at the United Against Nuclear Iran, said: ‘Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiyya’s branding on videos includes logos that are adopted from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its broader terror network. The IRGC has different options to choose from in activating these groups: it can activate sleeper cells in the United Kingdom, or it can employ transnational criminal syndicates to target Israeli interests, Jewish organisations, and the Iranian diaspora.’”
Iran Brings Old Supertanker Back to Kharg—Bloomberg | Iran International
“A 29-year-old Iranian supertanker appeared at Kharg Island after years off the radar, suggesting Tehran may be using retired vessels to keep loading oil as storage space runs out, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. The Nasha, an Iran-flagged very large crude carrier built in 1997, was docked Sunday at Kharg Island, Iran’s largest oil export terminal, according to the report, which cited satellite images also reviewed by United Against Nuclear Iran.”
“The authorities in Tehran are frantically searching for makeshift solutions. The organization United Against Nuclear Iran has confirmed, among other things, the use of the thirty-year-old supertanker Nash for this purpose. After years of inactivity, the ship has been anchored at the Kharg terminal and is serving as a temporary floating storage facility. The government is also trying to redirect some of the volumes to rail to deliver the raw material to China, but the scale of these efforts is too small compared to current production.”
U.S. Blockade Chokes Iran Oil Exports, Pushes Restart of Retired Tankers | ChosunBiz
“Iran, whose crude exports have been blocked by a U.S. maritime blockade, has resorted to the desperate measure of relaunching even retired oil tankers. Analysts say the move is aimed at maintaining production as storage space quickly runs out. On the 29th, local time, Bloomberg reported this, citing satellite image analysis. It said the Iran-flagged very large crude carrier (VLCC) Nasha, built in 1997, was recently confirmed to be anchored at Kharg Island, Iran's largest crude export hub. The vessel is an aging ship that effectively ceased activity after its last voyage about two to three years ago, cutting off its position signal. Shipping analytics firm Vortexa and the nonprofit group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) believe the Nasha has recently been reactivated.”
Iran’s Rusty Tanker Fleet Signals Desperation Under US Pressure | Zambian Observer
“Iran is scrambling to reactivate retired supertankers like the 29-year-old VLCC Nasha to store excess crude at Kharg Island as onshore tanks fill up from choked exports. Satellite images from April 26 confirm the aging vessel now sits at the terminal, a clear sign that Tehran’s storage crisis is worsening fast. Analysts at Bloomberg, United Against Nuclear Iran, and Kpler warn floating storage could max out in just two to three weeks.”
MILITARY MATTERS
U.S. Aircraft Carrier to Leave Mideast, Reducing Military Might amid Iran War | Washington Post
“The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford will depart the Middle East and begin the sail for home in coming days, multiple U.S. officials said, an expected relief for roughly 4,500 sailors who have been deployed for 10 months—but a loss of significant firepower as peace talks between the United States and Iran stagnate.”
Commanders to Brief Trump on New Iran Military Options Thursday | Axios
“President Trump is slated to receive a briefing on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper, two sources with knowledge tell Axios. . . . The briefing signals that Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations either to try to break the logjam in negotiations or to deliver a final blow before ending the war. . . . CENTCOM has prepared a plan for a ‘short and powerful’ wave of strikes on Iran—likely including infrastructure targets—in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock, three sources with knowledge said. The hope would be that Iran would then return to the negotiating table showing more flexibility on the nuclear issue. Another plan expected to be shared with Trump is focused on taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it to commercial shipping. Such an operation could include ground forces, one source said.”
Surveillance Drone Downed near US Embassy in Baghdad, Iraqi Security Sources Say | Reuters
“A surveillance drone flying near the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was shot down, Iraqi security sources said early on Thursday.”
US War in Iran Has Cost $25 Billion So Far, Says Pentagon Official | Reuters
“The United States' war in Iran has cost $25 billion so far, a senior Pentagon official said on Wednesday, providing the first official estimate of the military's price tag for the conflict. . . . Jules Hurst, who is performing the duties of the comptroller, told lawmakers on the House Armed Services Committee that most of that money was for munitions. . . . Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers that the cost was justified given the U.S. goal of ensuring Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”
IRANIAN PROXIES
U.K. Investigates Attacks on Jewish Targets for Possible Links to Iran | Washington Post
“British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Wednesday that the country was facing a ‘deeply concerning’ wave of violence against Jewish residents after a stabbing in north London, which followed more than a dozen attacks that are being investigated over possible links to Iran. . . . No definitive links to Tehran have been established so far, British officials said. But ‘all good logic would point to Iran being behind this,’ one official said.”
NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran’s Highly Enriched Uranium Likely Is Still at the Isfahan Site, UN Nuclear Chief Tells AP
“The majority of Iran’s highly enriched uranium is likely still at its Isfahan nuclear complex, which was bombarded by airstrikes last year and faced less intense attacks in this year’s U.S.-Israeli war, the U.N. nuclear agency’s leader told The Associated Press. Rafael Grossi said in an interview Tuesday that the International Atomic Energy Agency has satellite images showing the effects of the latest U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran and that ‘we continue to get information.’”
PROTESTS AND HUMAN RIGHTS
Family of Ailing Iranian Nobel Laureate Say Keeping Her in Jail Is a Death Sentence | Guardian
“The family of the jailed Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi say they fear for her life after a sharp deterioration in her health, suspected heart attack and drop in body weight of almost 20kg (44lb).”
SHIPPING, SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
As Hormuz Traffic Stalls, U.S. Pitches New Coalition to Get Ships Moving Again | Wall Street Journal
“Just weeks after President Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz ‘COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS’ only to see ship traffic stall, the administration is now asking other countries to join a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate the waterway. The effort, called the ‘Maritime Freedom Construct,’ was spelled out in an internal State Department cable sent to U.S. embassies on Tuesday that called on U.S. diplomats to press foreign governments into signing up. The U.S.-led coalition would share information, coordinate diplomatically and enforce sanctions, according to the cable.”
Oil-Starved Japan Lobbied Iran to Get Tanker Through Strait of Hormuz | Newsweek
“A Japanese-owned oil tanker has exited the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the Iran war began, according to Tokyo and Tehran, potentially offering much-needed relief to a key U.S. ally hit hard by global energy disruptions.”
Iranians Feel the Pain as Their Economy Descends Into a Death Spiral | Wall Street Journal
“War has imposed a heavy cost on Iran’s economy: more than a million people out of work, soaring food prices and a prolonged internet shutdown that has slammed online businesses. The question is how much more pain Iran’s leaders are willing to tolerate as they try to negotiate a favorable end to the war.”
Iran’s Economy Has Been Battered. Its Leaders Still Think Trump Will Blink First | Associated Press
“Over more than five weeks of bombardment, U.S. and Israeli strikes hit thousands of factories. The damage is reverberating across Iran’s economy, threatening increasing waves of layoffs, even as Iranians face skyrocketing prices. The cost of chicken is up 75% the past month, and beef and lamb jumped 68%. Many dairy products have increased by half. It could get worse as the United States blockades Iranian ports, choking off many imports and oil exports that bring in billions of dollars. Economic woes sparked the mass protests that were crushed before the war and could again push Iranians into the streets. Still, Iran has its own weapon pointed at the global economy, with its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s leaders say they will only reopen the key waterway for global energy if the blockade is lifted and the war ends. They are betting that an economy built to be self-reliant under decades of international sanctions can endure the pain longer than U.S. President Donald Trump.”
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
US Blockade of Iranian Ports Aims at ‘Internal Division,’ Parliament Speaker Says | Euronews
“Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Wednesday that the United States’ naval blockade of the country’s ports aimed to create division and ‘make us collapse from within.’”
CANADA & IRAN
Iran Football Chief Not Allowed into Canada After Arrival | Iran International
“Mehdi Taj, the IRGC-linked president of Iran’s football federation, was not allowed into Canada after arriving for this week’s FIFA Congress and later left the country, Iran International has learned.”