TOP STORIES
White House: No Talks with Iran Until Military Action ‘Runs Its Course’ | The Hill
Diplomatic talks with Iran are off until the U.S. and Israel military action runs its course, a senior Trump administration official told reporters in a briefing on Monday. . . . Nearly a dozen countries have offered to serve as mediators, the official said. “We’re not using anyone as an interlocutor. This is a military action, and it’s got to run its course.”
U.S. Sending More Forces to Middle East as Iran War Widens | New York Times
Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the U.S. military was bolstering its forces in the Middle East, sending more troops and fighter jets to the region. “This work is just beginning and will continue,” he said, adding that when additional fighter jets arrive in the coming days the United States will be “just about where we want to be in terms of total combat capacity and total combat power.” He declined to say exactly how big that overall force would be.
Iran’s Strategy: Expand the War, Increase the Cost, Outlast Trump | New York Times
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s first priority is to survive. To do that, its leaders will want to drive up the cost of the war for President Trump—in terms of American casualties, energy costs and inflation—to try to persuade him to declare victory and go home. Faced with the overwhelming firepower of the United States and Israel, diplomats and analysts say, Iran is working to enlarge the battlefield from its own territory to the broader region. The goals are to damage oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries, shut the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and curtail air traffic—all to disrupt the economies of the Persian Gulf and drive up global energy prices and inflation. Iran will also be trying to exhaust the number of expensive missile interceptors held by its enemies.
UANI IN THE NEWS
If the regime survives, two members of Tehran’s interim leadership council could emerge as credible contenders for the position of Supreme Leader. Both have considerable weaknesses.
UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi Discusses Leadership Change in Iran | Times Radio
“This is an extensive apparatus that Khamanei created in order to ensure that if he is eliminated, the regime can ensure continuity.” Though there is an interim leadership in charge of Iran, an invisible state is “operating behind the scenes” says director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran Kasra Aarabi.
Vigils at British Mosques for ‘Martyr’ Ayatollah Khamenei | Times of London
Kasra Aarabi, of United Against Nuclear Iran, who has been monitoring the activity, said: “These are vigils for a man who had British blood on his hands, who ordered terror plots on British soil. That is deeply concerning.”
Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told The Sun Mojtaba Khamenei will be in the running—providing he’s hasn’t been wiped out. “We haven’t had the reports yet as to whether he is alive,” Kasra said. “But there is an invisible power structure there, an invisible state, that is really calling the shots. His sons are part of that. It has been designed alongside the IRGC to fill any vacuum and make sure continuity prevails rather than anything that could have a devastating blow to the regime. Keep an eye on Ayatollah Alireza Arafi. Keep an eye on his sons.”
[UANI Senior Advisor] Saeid Golkar on the Fear and Hope Shaking Iran | Moment Magazine
“The only chance Iran has for regime change is through the foreign intervention that we are seeing. The modern security state is not going to collapse by internal revolution. People are not able to do that in Venezuela, in Russia, Belarus, China. Because the state is much, much more powerful than the people. In the 20th century, the gap between the power of the state and the power of the people was not as great. So if you had enough people go to the street, it was possible to change the regime. Today, the modern security state is too technologically advanced. . . . In America, people see domestic or foreign politics through the party line. If you’re a Democrat, you criticize anything Republicans do and vice versa. Viewing this through a humanitarian lens, we have to think about protecting those under this repressive regime. In terms of national security, undermining this regime will actually remove one of the biggest threats to that security. A third factor is blowing up the relationship between Iran, China and Russia. . . . And so I would say, think about what is good for the United States, what is good for the region and what is good for the whole world.”
Iran Reportedly Selects Khamenei’s Son as New Supreme Leader | Jewish Chronicle
Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, has described [Mojtaba Khamenei] as “like his father—only on steroids". . . . And, according to a leaked IRGC report seen by Aarabi, Mojtaba played a “crucial role in commanding the violent suppression of Iranian civilians in the recent anti-regime protests.”
Jason Brodsky, policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran, told JNS that the Iranian regime “has tried for many years to establish capabilities and networks in the United States that can carry out these types of operations when the Iranian leadership decides to do so.” “I think that, fortunately, U.S. law enforcement has been quite effective in thwarting these plots in coordination with our allies and partners around the world, but this is a threat,” he said. “There is a capability that the Iranian regime possesses. It maintains relationships with transnational criminal syndicates, and those syndicates have the ability to conduct operations within the United States,” Brodsky told JNS. “It needs to be taken seriously.”
Post-Khamenei Iran: Succession Race Widens as Decentralized System Sustains War | Iran International
Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran said power has become “diffuse,” now resting formally with a three-person interim leadership council while multiple political and clerical figures compete for influence. “There used to be a centralized address for the final decision-making. Now there’s a wider array of people. So it’s flatter,” said Brodsky. Potential candidates, he said, include members of the interim leadership structure such as Alireza Arafi and Chief Justice Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, as well as other clerical figures outside the council. Brodsky pointed to Hassan Khomeini—grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder—alongside conservative clerics including Mohammad Mahdi Mirbagheri, Mohsen Araki and Mohsen Qomi as individuals to watch. At the same time, senior political figures such as Ali Larijani and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf remain influential actors shaping decision-making during the transition. “With Khamenei and his family gone, that really leaves the succession race wide open,” Brodsky said.
Student Society Gives Advice on ‘Collective Grief’ After Khamenei Killed | Jewish Chronicle
A student society [in the UK] has given advice on how to deal with “collective grief” following the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Israeli strikes on Tehran on Saturday. . . . Kasra Aarabi, the director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has been exposing pro-Iranian regime networks in the UK as part of a campaign to “make Britain a Khamenei-free zone.” He said: “Khamenei has been eliminated and the US and Israel are dismantling his extremist infrastructure in Iran—and yet his infrastructure in the UK remains fully active and open. It is deeply disturbing that UK-registered charities and university student bodies are mourning the death of an individual who was plotting terror on British streets and had British blood on his hands. The government cannot ignore this—brushing it under the carpet is not a tactic . . . the government should be putting British national security first. This is urgent and cannot be ignored.”
UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi Discusses the UK’s Position on the Iran War | GB News
Aarabi: “We should be standing with our ally. We should be standing with the United States. This is a terrorist regime . . . This regime is no different to ISIS. And where is [British Prime Minister Sir] Keir Starmer? Nowhere to be seen.”
Roth: “The British security establishment has been somewhat paralyzed by its experience in Iraq in 2003, and that informed Prime Minister [Sir Keir] Starmer’s initial decision to not allow the U.S. to use its air bases . . . [however the UK] could and should play a bigger role in this action.”
[PHOTO CAPTION:] An Iranian Shahed Drone is displayed by the United Against Nuclear Iran at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) annual meeting in National Harbor, Maryland, US, February 22, 2025.
MILITARY/INTEL MATTERS & REGIME CHANGE
Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran's late Supreme Leader, has survived the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in which his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, two Iranian sources told Reuters on Wednesday. Mojtaba is seen by the establishment as a possible successor to his father, the sources said.
CIA Working to Provide Weapons to Kurdish Forces to Spark Uprising in Iran, Sources Say | CNN
The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran, multiple people familiar with the plan told CNN. The Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support, the sources said. Iranian Kurdish armed groups have thousands of forces operating along the Iraq-Iran border, primarily in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Several of the groups have released public statements since the beginning of the war hinting at imminent action and urging Iranian military forces to defect. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been striking Kurdish groups and said on Tuesday that it targeted Kurdish forces with dozens of drones. . . . Iranian Kurdish opposition forces are expected to take part in a ground operation in Western Iran, in the coming days, the senior Iranian Kurdish official told CNN. “We believe we have a big chance now,” the source said, explaining the timing of the operation. The source added the militias expects US and Israeli support.
Trump: Iranians Want to Talk, I Said It’s Too Late! | Times of Israel
“[Iran’s] air defense, Air Force, Navy, and Leadership is gone. They want to talk. I said ‘Too Late!’,” writes the president, in response to a Washington Post op-ed hailing his decision to attack Iran.
Trump Says ‘If Anything,’ He Forced Israel’s Hand on Iran Strikes | The Hill
President Trump on Tuesday said he “might” have forced Israel’s hand to strike Iran first, saying his opinion was that the Islamic Republic was going to launch a military strike first. . . . The president’s remarks contradicted an account by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Israel was the one that decided to attack Iran and that dictated Trump’s decision. Rubio said the U.S. made the decision to join the strikes alongside Israel rather than join the fight after likely Iranian retaliatory strikes.
Rubio Walks Back Suggestion That Israel Forced U.S. Hand in Iran Strikes | New York Times
On Monday, Mr. Rubio told reporters on Capitol Hill that the United States struck Iran “proactively in a defensive way” under the assumption that Iran would target U.S. forces after Israel began its own attack on the country. But on Tuesday, ahead of a pair of classified briefings on the war for members of the Senate and House, Mr. Rubio sought to play down Israel’s role in prompting the strikes. “The bottom line is this: The president determined we were not going to get hit first. It’s that simple, guys,” Mr. Rubio said. “We are not going put American troops in harm’s way. If you tell the president of the United States that if we don’t go first, we’re going to have more people killed and more people injured, the president’s going to go first. That’s what he did. That’s what the president will always do.” He argued that the long-planned campaign to strike Iran and an effort by Israel to lobby President Trump to join the effort was not what ultimately influenced Mr. Trump to decide to take military action. Instead, Mr. Rubio said, it was the threat of Iran’s increasing military capability and growing arsenal of weapons.
Trump to Politico: Iran Is ’Running Out of Launchers’ | Politico
President Donald Trump said in an interview Tuesday that Iran was running out of crucial armaments and that he’d be open to working with some surviving members of the country’s ruling regime. . . . “They’re running out [of missiles] and they’re running out of areas to shoot them, because they’re being decimated,” Trump said. “They’re running out of launchers.” . . . Asked whether it is too late for him to consider working with someone in a new government, Trump replied, “Nope, not too late. 49 [senior Iranian leaders] were killed, don’t forget, so that goes pretty deep, right? New ones are emerging. A lot of people want the job. Some of them would be very good.”
Trump Letter to Congress Justifying Iran Strikes Outlines No Imminent Threat | New York Times
President Trump has told Congress he ordered the United States military to carry out sweeping airstrikes on Iran, killing its top leaders and triggering counterattacks across the region, to advance American national interests and eliminate Iran as a global threat, contradicting his administration’s claim that the attack was necessary to respond to an imminent threat. In a legally mandated, unclassified letter submitted on Monday, Mr. Trump declared that the military operation was designed to “neutralize Iran’s malign activities.”
Trump Says He Fears Iran’s Next Leader Could Be ‘As Bad as the Previous Person’ | Guardian
“I guess the worst case would be we do this and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person, right? That could happen. We don’t want that to happen. It would probably be the worst,” he said. “You go through this and then in five years, you realise you put somebody in who was no better. So we’d like to see somebody in there that’s going to bring it back for the people.”
“I hear people are telling you [Americans] that you’re going to have an endless war here—You’re not going to have an endless war because . . . this terror regime in Iran is at its weakest point [since its founding] . . . This is going to be a quick and decisive action,” [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] asserts.
U.S. Closes Embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait | New York Times
The United States government closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait on Tuesday and ordered nonessential staff in several other countries to evacuate as Iran expanded its retaliatory attacks on U.S. targets in the Gulf region.
Israel Bombs Council Choosing Iran’s Next Supreme Leader, Official Says | Axios
The Israeli air force on Tuesday struck the building housing Iran’s Council of Experts in the holy city of Qom in an attempt to disrupt the process of appointing a new supreme leader, an Israeli defense official said. . . . The Israeli defense official said the strike took place while votes were being counted. It isn’t clear how many of the council’s 88 members were in the building at the time, or the extent of the damage.
Iran Has Largely Halted Oil and Gas Exports Through Strait of Hormuz | Guardian
Iran has in effect closed the strait of Hormuz to oil and gas exports for the past four days with a mixture of drone strikes and fear that has halted commercial maritime traffic despite intense US attacks on Iran’s navy. At least four tankers have been struck and Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported that seaborne traffic had dropped by 80% on Sunday, with little sign of a return as key maritime insurers cancelled cover the next day.
IRGC Says Iran in ‘Complete Control’ of Strait of Hormuz amid Trump Threats | Al Jazeera
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said it maintains full control of the Strait of Hormuz, where United States President Donald Trump has said he is prepared to deploy the navy to escort tankers. “Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is under the complete control of the Islamic Republic’s Navy,” IRGC Navy official Mohammad Akbarzadeh said on Wednesday in a statement carried by Iran’s Fars news agency.
How Iran Could Wage a New ‘Tanker War’ | Financial Times
Tankers ablaze in the Gulf. Tehran warning ships to avoid a key waterway. Western nations struggling to protect commercial vessels. As Iran’s retaliatory attacks target energy shipments in the region, the conflict has recalled memories of the 1980s “tanker war.”
Israeli security officials reportedly believe that the rate of Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Israel will decrease in the coming days.
Senior Iranian military officer Ahmad Vahidi has been appointed the new chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, after the previous commander, Mohammad Pakpour, was killed by Israel and the US on Saturday. Vahidi, who formerly served as the head of the IRGC’s extraterritorial Quds Force, is suspected of being behind the bombings of the Israeli embassy and AMIA Jewish community center in Argentina in the 1990s. In 1992, a bomb attack on the Israeli embassy left 29 dead. Two years later, a truck loaded with explosives drove into the AMIA Jewish center and detonated, leaving 85 dead and 300 injured.
U.S. and Allies Encounter Iran’s Arsenal of Drones | New York Times
President Trump has made destroying Iran’s stockpiles of ballistic missiles and launchers a top priority in the war, but Tehran has unleashed waves of another deadly weapon. Since Saturday, Iran has launched as many as 2,000 drones across the Persian Gulf region. Two hit the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh on Tuesday. And military officials say it was probably an Iranian one-way drone that killed at least six U.S. service members in Kuwait on Sunday.
UAE Considers Striking Iranian Missile Sites as Regional War Spreads | Axios
The United Arab Emirates is considering taking military action to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on the country, two sources with knowledge of the matter tell Axios. . . . The UAE has been the country most attacked by Iran since the start of the war — even more so than Israel.
Authorities have put out a limited fire in the vicinity of the US consulate in Dubai due to a drone strike, with no injuries reported, Dubai’s media office says.
Qatar denies carrying out strikes in Iran after Israeli media reported that it had, citing only Western sources familiar with the matter. “Qatar has not been part of the campaign targeting Iran. We are exercising our right in self-defense and deterring Iranian attacks against our country,” Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari.
Qatar Announces Arrest of Iran’s IRGC Sleeper Cells | Al Jazeera
Qatar has announced the arrest of what it called two cells operating for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Ten suspects were arrested in the cells, the Qatar News Agency (QNA) announced on Tuesday. Seven had been assigned to spy on “vital and military facilities” in Qatar, while three were tasked with carrying out sabotage operations.
US Mulls Military Support for Vulnerable Oil Supplies in Strait of Hormuz | Politico
The White House will offer naval escorts and political risk insurance for oil and gas tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said Tuesday, in a bid to cool energy prices that have surged since Iran warned it would attack ships at the choke point.
France Sends Aircraft Carrier to Mediterranean over Iran War | Le Monde
French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, March 3, said France was sending an aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean in response to the widening conflict in the Middle East following US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran. . . . Macron said he was also sending air defense capabilities to Cyprus a day after Iranian-made drones hit the Mediterranean island's British air base at Akrotiri.
Iran’s foreign ministry warns European countries not to take any part in the US-Israeli campaign against the Islamic Republic, saying it “would be an act of war.” “It would be an act of war,” ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei tells reporters. “Any such act against Iran would be regarded as complicity with the aggressors. It would be regarded as an act of war against Iran.” Germany, France, and the UK said on Sunday that they could take “proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source.”
Trump Critiques European Allies amid the Iran War Escalation | Politico
President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric against European allies Tuesday, criticizing Spain and the United Kingdom in particular for their reluctance to enter the war as he urged a stronger coalition against Iran. . . . [German Chancellor Friedrich] Merz on Monday appeared to back Trump as he urged his fellow Europeans to support America’s efforts. “We are supporting the United States and Israel to get rid of this terrible terrorist regime,” Merz said. “This is important not just for the Americans. This is extremely important for Europe.”
Inside Trump, Netanyahu Call on Iran That Changed Middle East | Axios
Last Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called President Trump with a stunning tip: Iran's supreme leader and his top advisers were all set to meet at one location in Tehran on Saturday morning. They could all be killed in a single devastating airstrike, Netanyahu told Trump and his team, according to three sources briefed on the discussion. . . . The Feb. 23 call—held from the White House Situation Room and unreported until now—was a pivotal moment that set the Iran war in motion. It answers the question that lawmakers, MAGA skeptics and world leaders have all been asking since Saturday: why now?
Inside the Operation That Killed Khamenei | Wall Street Journal
Iran’s leadership didn’t see the morning strike coming. On Saturday morning, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—who typically went down into his bunkers at night when the regime believed Israeli attacks were likely to take place—was above ground at his residence. The unexpected daylight attack, Operation Genesis, killed Khamenei and was the opening blow in Israel and the U.S.’s war with Iran. The Wall Street Journal reconstructed the operation through interviews with current and former Israeli and U.S. officials, as well as satellite imagery, videos and photos.
DIPLOMACY
UAE and Qatar Urge Allies to Help Trump Find Iran Off-Ramp | Bloomberg
The United Arab Emirates and Qatar are privately lobbying allies to help them persuade President Donald Trump to reach for an off-ramp that would keep US military operations against Iran short, according to people familiar with the matter. The countries are seeking to build a wide coalition to advance a swift and diplomatic end to the conflict, the people said, in order to prevent regional escalation and a prolonged energy price shock.
TERRORISM & PROXY WARS
Iraq Security Forces Seize Rockets Aimed at Baghdad Airport: Official | Agence France-Presse
Iraqi security forces seized on Tuesday nine rockets and a launchpad that were set up to target Baghdad International Airport, a government spokesperson told AFP. . . . Baghdad International Airport includes a military base that hosts American advisors and previously housed US-led coalition troops. A shadowy group called Saraya Awliyaa al-Dam (Guardians of Blood), which claims to be part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, said Monday it was behind drone attacks on Baghdad airport.
Israel conducted a covert extraction of part of its embassy staff in the United Arab Emirates today after two Iranian terror plots targeting the diplomatic team were foiled in recent days, an Israeli official tells The Times of Israel, confirming Hebrew media reports.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps officers who are responsible for contact with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have reportedly failed to make contact with the terror groups since the US and Israel launched a bombing campaign on the Iranian regime on Saturday.
Most of the FBI agents fired by FBI Director Kash Patel last week worked on counterintelligence cases, including cases pertaining to Iran, multiple sources told CBS News. . . . A different source with knowledge of the matter called the firing of the members of the CI-12 squad “devastating to the FBI’s Iran program.” The source said that these agents have confidential informants in the Iranian community in the U.S. “You can’t replicate that with new agents. These sources will go away.”
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran to Hold Three-Day Funeral for Supreme Leader Khamenei | Bloomberg
The funeral of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike last weekend, will begin on Wednesday, in a gathering that’s likely to rally supporters of the Islamic Republic amid the war.