As Tehran Waffles on Trump’s Offer of Nuclear Diplomacy, Europeans Weigh Canceling 2015 Deal and Replacing It With Sanctions

Adding to the complications, an Iranian ally, Russia, will assume the Security Council’s rotating presidency in October. America and the Europeans will therefore “want to start the snapback process well in advance, to avoid having Russia be in the chair” at the crucial moment, the United Against Nuclear Iran policy director, Jason Brodsky, tells the Sun. The new dynamic at the UN reminds Mr. Brodsky of how sanctions were initially imposed on Iran there in 2011, before Mr. Obama opted to replace them with the JCPOA that gradually eased all pressure on Iran. Like now, the Europeans in 2011 asked for a “comprehensive report from the IAEA, and there was referral to the UN Security Council, and sanctions were imposed thereafter,” he says. 

Perhaps fearing a restoration of global sanctions, Tehran is now hinting it is ready to negotiate. Yet, it is “speaking in the language of the JCPOA,” Mr. Brodsky says, while the Trump administration “has a more expansive and sweeping deal in mind, and that is the dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program, disarmament akin to the Libya 2003 model.” Therefore, he adds, “I think that we are heading towards a collision, not a successful diplomacy.”