TOP STORIES
US to Conduct Military Exercises in Middle East as Tension with Iran Builds | CNN
US forces will conduct a multi-day air exercise in the Middle East as Washington bolsters its military presence in the region amid tensions with Iran. The exercise would allow airmen to prove “they can disperse, operate, and generate combat sorties under demanding conditions—safely, precisely and alongside our partners,” said a statement from Lt. Gen. Derek France, US Central Command’s AFCENT commander and Combined Forces Air Component commander.
Iran Delegates Emergency Powers as Threat of Conflict with US Looms | Financial Times
Iran’s president has begun implementing emergency measures to shore up supplies of essential goods and keep government running in case of new attacks on the country by the US or Israel.
In a meeting on Tuesday with governors of border provinces, Masoud Pezeshkian issued orders designed to “eliminate redundant bureaucracy and accelerate the import of basic commodities,” according to state media.
Iran Executes Man Accused of Spying for Israel | Reuters
Iran executed a man on Wednesday who was accused of spying for Israel, the Iranian judiciary's media outlet Mizan reported, naming him as Hamidreza Sabet Esmaeilipour. Entangled in a decades-long shadow war with Israel, Iran has executed many people it has accused of having links with the Israeli intelligence service and facilitating its operations in the country.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Inner Circle of Iran’s Supreme Leader Enriches Itself as Poverty Reaches Crisis Level | New York Sun
“Setad (EIKO) provides Khamenei with an independent financial base that operates entirely outside Iran’s elected institutions,” said Saeid Golkar, senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran . “Its revenues do not pass through the state budget, parliament, or the presidency, allowing the Supreme Leader to fund patronage networks, security organs, and loyal institutions without negotiating with elected officials.” What makes this model distinctive, Mr. Golkar explains, is “the fusion of clerical authority with a confiscatory holding structure.”
During Malaysia, the Shadow Fleet STS Emerged as a 'Holy Land' | KMTC Line (translated from Korean)
During the Malaysian Peninsula, the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) emerged as a 'holy land' for the transfer of Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan crude oil to STS (Ship-to-Ship). Charlie Brown, senior advisor to the shipping division of Singapore's United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), said on the 27th, "The shadow fleet is booming right now," and that "STS activity in these waters has more than doubled in the past year." According to Brown's analysis of satellite images and AIS data, there are currently about 60 oil tankers loaded with Iranian crude oil and about 30 cargo waiting ships from Russia and Venezuela (10 from Russia and 20 from Venezuela) docked in the EEZ in the East Sea of Malaysia. "In recent weeks, the number of STS working vessels has more than doubled from 5~7 pairs a year ago to 13~15 pairs," he said.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Worry Pervades Mideast over Possible US Strike on Iran | Associated Press
Iranian officials reached out to the wider Middle East on Wednesday over the threat of a possible U.S. military strike on the country, a month since the start of protests in Iran that soon spread nationwide and sparked a bloody crackdown. Two nations, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have signaled they won’t allow their airspace to be used for any attack. But America has moved the USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided missile destroyers into the region, which can be used to launch attacks from the sea. It remains unclear what U.S. President Donald Trump will decide about using force, though he laid down two red lines — the killing of peaceful demonstrators and the possible mass execution of detainees.
Former NSC Official Urges Trump to Take Military Action in Iran Crackdown | The Hill
Former senior director of the National Security Council Michael Allen said Monday that President Trump will “have to do something militarily” in Iran as the scope and scale of the regime’s bloody crackdown on protests has begun to emerge.
Iran’s Neighbors on Edge as US ‘Armada’ Arrives in Middle East | The Hill
Iran’s neighbors are on edge over the possibility that President Trump will pull the trigger on strikes against Iran, as Tehran and its allies have promised to forcefully retaliate against U.S. Positions, many of which are located inside the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. Regional powers, including the UAE, have reiterated that their airspace, territory and waters will not be permitted for use if military action against Iran takes place, but the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln and its accompanying destroyers in the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) area would allow Washington to go it alone, should Trump make good on his pledge to punish Tehran for its brutal crackdown against antiregime protesters.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the Iranian president on Tuesday that the Kingdom would not allow its airspace or territory to be used for any military attack on Iran. The US has threatened to attack Iran in recent weeks following the regime’s brutal crackdown on nationwide anti-government protests.
Israel Foreign Minister Calls for Dismantling Iran’s Regional Allies | Iran International
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Iran’s regional allies must be dismantled to achieve stability in the Middle East, outlining what he described as a vision for the region’s future during a visit to Kazakhstan. . . . “Iran’s proxy terror states in the Middle East, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen must be dismantled,” Saar said. “Without doing so, there will be no regional stability, and this is our objective.”
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
. . . Estimates of the number killed vary substantially, hampered by the ongoing internet shutdown. The Iranian government has acknowledged more than 3,000 dead, and the US-based organisation HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency), whose figures have been reliable during previous crackdowns, says it has verified more than 6,000 dead and has more than 17,000 more recorded deaths under investigation, giving a possible total of about 22,000. Other estimates from doctors based outside Iran range up to 33,000 or more.
'We All Know Someone Who Was Killed': Iran Protesters Describe Personal Toll of Crackdown | BBC News
“My friends are all like me. We all know someone who was killed in the protests.” For Parisa, a 29-year-old from Tehran, the crackdown by security forces in Iran earlier this month was unlike anything she had witnessed before. “In the most widespread previous protests, I didn't personally know a single person who had been killed,” she said.
How Iran Crushed a Citizen Uprising with Lethal Force | New York Times
In Tehran, the capital of Iran, security forces opened fire at protesters from the roof of a police station. In Karaj, they fired live rounds into a march, shooting one person in the head. In Isfahan, young men barricaded themselves in an alley as gunfire and explosions rang out. Scattered protests had percolated since late December, starting with a strike in Tehran’s bazaar and fueled by a plunging economy. But by early January, Iranians had revolted en masse, and the security forces began to crack down with deadly force.
Iran Killed Thousands of Protesters. Here Are Five of Their Stories. | New York Times
One was a 23-year-old budding fashion designer, another a prospective engineering student bound for Tehran. There was also a mother, father and son who had once considered emigrating as a family in hopes of a better life. All were killed in the protests that convulsed Iran for weeks starting in late December, according to their families and human rights groups. The demonstrations began over economic malaise but swelled into a nationwide antigovernment movement that posed the most serious threat to the regime in years.
Iran Executes Man Accused of Spying for Israel | Reuters
Iran executed a man on Wednesday who was accused of spying for Israel, the Iranian judiciary's media outlet Mizan reported, naming him as Hamidreza Sabet Esmaeilipour. Entangled in a decades-long shadow war with Israel, Iran has executed many people it has accused of having links with the Israeli intelligence service and facilitating its operations in the country.
The Islamic Republic’s Predatory Contract with Its People | Karim Sadjadpour in The Atlantic
Since the rise of the modern state in the 17th century, political legitimacy has come to rest on a social contract, in which the government provides security and sustenance in exchange for the consent of the governed. The Islamic Republic’s relationship with Iranians does not resemble a social contract, but a predatory lease signed in 1979 that has long since expired.
‘Rat-Ali’: Iran’s Protest Nickname Targets Ali Khamenei’s Time Underground | Iran International
Many Iranians on social media have been referring to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as ‘Moush-Ali’ (Rat-Ali), a nickname rooted in reports that he has repeatedly gone into underground seclusion and now echoed at rallies inside Iran and in diaspora protests.
SANCTIONS, SHIPPING, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
EU Expected to Approve New Iran Sanctions in Response to Crackdown | Reuters
The EU is expected to sanction some 20 Iranian individuals and entities under its human rights rules this week but is not expected to add Iran's Revolutionary Guards to its terrorist list due to opposition from France, officials said on Tuesday. European Union foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Iran when they gather in Brussels on Thursday, and are expected to sign off on the new sanctions.
HOSTAGES
UK Couple Craig and Lindsay Foreman Detained in Iran ‘Scared for Their Lives’ | BBC News
The son of a British couple imprisoned in Iran has said his parents are “terrified.” Lindsay and Craig Foreman were detained by Iranian authorities last January on espionage charges, which have been widely condemned as politically motivated.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Iran Says It Did Not Request Negotiations with US | Reuters
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he had not been in contact with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in recent days or requesting negotiations, state media reported on Wednesday. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday another “armada” is floating toward Iran and that he hopes Tehran would make a deal with Washington.
EUROPE & IRAN
France Emerges as Key Holdout in EU Talks on Blacklisting Iran’s Revolutionary Guard | Euronews
Despite reports of mass casualties in Iran’s crackdown on recent protests, France remains wary of adding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to the bloc’s terror list, saying the step would achieve little given existing sanctions. Momentum is building within the EU to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation, after Italy shifted its stance on Monday and announced it would push for the move.
SOUTH AFRICA & IRAN
After Naval Drills with Iran, South Africa Faces New U.S. Attacks | New York Times
Naval exercises held off the coast of South Africa have led to a new round of hostility between the country and the United States. The exercises, held this month, were led by China and joined by members of the BRICS group of emerging economies, including South Africa, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. Two of the group’s original members, Brazil and India, did not participate. As the weeklong exercises approached on Jan. 9, President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa ordered his defense officials to ensure that Iran, which was scheduled to participate, was downgraded to observer status, according to his office. But Tehran participated in the drills anyway, including in live-fire exercises that took place at the height of the mass demonstrations in Iran this month, during which thousands of protesters were killed.