TOP STORIES
Trump Moves Closer to a Major War with Iran | Axios
The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon. A U.S. military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month's pinpoint operation in Venezuela, sources say.
Vance Says Iran Is Ignoring Core U.S. Demands in Talks | Wall Street Journal
Vice President JD Vance said Iran had failed to acknowledge core U.S. demands in talks here Tuesday, after which Washington said it had agreed to give Tehran two weeks to close the gaps between the sides. Ahead of the negotiations, Tehran had indicated it was willing to compromise around the edges of its nuclear program, including moving its near weapons-grade uranium offshore, people familiar with the matter said. But speaking Tuesday evening, Vance said it was clear from his briefing from the talks that they hadn’t yielded any breakthrough, adding that military action remained an option. The U.S. has demanded Iran end its enrichment of uranium, a central aspect of its nuclear work, which the White House fears gives Iran the capacity to build a nuclear weapon.
Iran and Russia will conduct navy drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean tomorrow, the Iranian semi-official Fars news agency reports, a few days after Revolutionary Guards conducted military drills in the Strait of Hormuz. “Creating convergence and coordination in joint measures to counter activities threatening maritime security and safety… as well as combating maritime terrorism, are among the main goals of this joint exercise,” an Iranian navy commander, Hassan Maghsoodloo said, according to Fars news.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Decision makers in Israel see the current point in time as a strategic opportunity to dismantle the threat posed by the Islamic regime in Tehran. The regime’s crumbling domestic legitimacy, the collapse of the local currency, and the massive blows to its regional proxies put Tehran in its most vulnerable position in decades. . . . This set of ambitious demands is seen in Tehran as an Israeli attempt to achieve a complete Iranian surrender or face the risk of a military move that might cause the fall of the regime. Ahead of the second round of talks with the US, Iranian officials have already categorically rejected the idea of any negotiations on its ballistic missiles or its proxy network. . . . The gap between Israel’s demands and the Iranian position leaves very little leeway for compromise and seems to lead the way to an inevitable military conflict. The question that remains to be seen is what President Trump’s intentions are.
UANI Policy Director Jason M. Brodsky Discusses Nuclear Talks | BBC Persian
“The maximum that the Iranian side intends to offer in the negotiations is less than the minimum that the United States wants,” Jason Brodsky, Policy Director of the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, told BBC Persian.
NUCLEAR PROGRAM & DIPLOMACY
Amid Threat of U.S. Attack, Iran Nuclear Talks Proceed Without Breakthrough | Washington Post
A second round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States concluded in Geneva on Tuesday without any breakthrough, according to statements from Iran and Oman, which is mediating the talks. But both said some progress had been made. . . . in an interview with the BBC on Sunday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi suggested the U.S. was no longer insisting on zero enrichment. The “issue of zero enrichment is not an issue anymore, and as far as Iran is concerned,” Ravanchi said, “it is not on the table anymore.”
Nuclear Talks Make Progress Even as Iran Threatens to ‘Slap’ US | Times of London
Iran has indicated that it could pause its nuclear enrichment programme for up to three years as it seeks to head off war with the United States. Tehran sent mixed signals after talks with US envoys mediated by Oman: Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, hailed progress on “guiding principles”, while Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, derided the diplomatic process. US officials said many details remained outstanding, as both sides agreed to draw up versions of a draft settlement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme amid a massive American military build-up in the region.
Iran Says 'Guiding Principles' Agreed with US at Nuclear Talks | BBC News
Iran has said it has reached an understanding with the US on the main "guiding principles" to resolve their dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme. Speaking after indirect talks in Geneva, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added that work still needed to be done. The US said "progress was made". Badr Albusaidi, foreign minister of mediator Oman, said the negotiations "concluded with good progress towards identifying common goals and relevant technical issues".
Starmer and Trump Agree Iran 'Must Never' Develop Nuclear Weapons | LBC
The two leaders spoke on Tuesday night, with the Prime Minister reiterating his condemnation of "Putin's barbaric attacks on innocent civilians in Ukraine", as they discussed ongoing negotiations. Their conversation comes after the US and Iran engaged in the latest round of negotiations in Geneva that focused on the latter's nuclear capabilities. Mr Trump, who scrapped an earlier nuclear agreement with Iran during his first term, has repeatedly threatened to use force to compel Iran to agree to constrain its nuclear programme.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Former IDF Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin suggests that a military confrontation between the US and Iran could begin in the coming days. “Last week I allowed myself to fly to the Munich Security Conference. I would think twice about flying [abroad from Israel] this weekend,” Yadlin tells Channel 12. “We are much closer than we were before, but I remind you — a superpower does not go to war in a matter of days. There is a diplomatic path that must be exhausted,” says Yadlin, who now heads a national security consultancy.
Why Regional Powers Are Pushing to Prevent a US-Iran War | Iran International
The latest round of Iran-US talks in Geneva on Tuesday would likely not have taken place without sustained pressure from regional powers that leveraged their close relations with Washington to help avert a wider war. From Riyadh to Ankara and Doha, governments across the Middle East have moved with unusual urgency to contain the confrontation.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iranians Mourn Slain Protesters with ‘Revolutionary Rage’| New York Times
With patriotic anthems and chants against the country’s clerical rulers, Iranians on Tuesday began commemorating the end of a traditional 40-day mourning period for loved ones killed at the peak of the government’s bloody crackdown on nationwide protests. The authorities have moved quickly to tamp down protests or other demonstrations of anti-government sentiment to mark the occasion, with videos verified by The New York Times showing security patrols in at least two cities. Tuesday is the first of what are expected to be several days of memorial ceremonies across the country to honor the 40th day since thousands of protesters were killed from Jan. 8 to Jan. 10. The commemorations will test both of the success of the crackdown and the ability of government opponents to find new ways to defy the state.
IRGC Quds Force Chief Threatens Protesters and ‘Their Supporters’ | Iran International
Esmaeil Qaani, commander of the IRGC Quds Force, threatened protesters and those he described as supporting them, saying they would face consequences. He said people who backed what he called “rioters and terrorists” were criminals and would see the outcome of their actions, according to state media.
Iran’s President Urges Police to Manage Unrest with ‘Minimum Cost’ | Iran International
Speaking at a graduation ceremony for police cadets, [Iranian President Masoud] Pezeshkian said authorities must maintain order while minimizing harm to security forces and civilians, as Iran continues to grapple with the aftermath of nationwide unrest. . . . Pezeshkian said preventing unrest from escalating into crisis should be a priority. “If there is dissatisfaction or a problem in society, we must not allow it to turn into a crisis. It must be prevented and treated,” he said. “In the third step, when an incident occurs, it must be managed with the minimum cost to the parties involved.” At the same time, he stressed that those deemed responsible for disturbances should be detained firmly. “You must manage the scene in such a way that the person who has created disorder is arrested with strength, authority and safety and handed over to the judiciary to be dealt with according to the law,” he said.
Popular Anger Burns in Iran After Crackdown, as Trump Turns Up Pressure | Washington Post
Under pressure to reach a deal in nuclear talks with the United States, and facing the threat of U.S. forces building up in the region, Tehran is attempting to project strength and unity. But seething popular anger has not abated in the weeks following a government crackdown that killed thousands of protesters, according to accounts from inside the country. . . . A woman from Bandar Abbas, on the Persian Gulf, who says she participated in the protests, said she saw security forces open fire into the crowds. . . . “Seeing the mass killing all over the country felt like waking up from a deep sleep with a slap on my face. I am so ashamed to be alive,” she said. “I am also full of rage.” Before January she would not have understood why someone would want their own country to be attacked, she said, as the threat of U.S. strikes loomed. “But this time it is different,” she said, espousing a view long unpopular in Iran: “The real enemy is the Islamic Republic and any country or army that can weaken or attack them is going to liberate us.”
Forty Days On, Even Insiders Question Tehran’s Protest Narrative | Iran International
On February 17, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Massoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf repeated the government’s longstanding assertion that foreign forces played a decisive role in fueling the protests. At the same time, officials acknowledged that some of those killed were “innocent,” drawing a distinction that appeared intended to preserve the official narrative while recognizing the scale of the bloodshed. Yet beneath that public consensus, alternative interpretations are emerging—even from figures long associated with the system. Hassan Beyadi, a hardliner and secretary-general of the Abadgaran (Developers) Party, which helped propel Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the presidency in 2005, offered a starkly different assessment in an interview with Khabar Online. “People came to the streets because their dignity was trampled by politicians,” Beyadi said, describing the unrest as a reaction to corruption, discrimination and violations of basic citizenship rights.