TOP STORIES
Trump Announces Naval Blockade on Iran After Peace Talks Collapse | Axios
President Trump announced the U.S. is imposing a naval blockade on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, several hours after peace talks in Pakistan ended in failure. Iran has effectively held the strait hostage, imposing a toll and limiting oil exports. Trump's blockade aims to flip that dynamic by denying Iran the leverage it’s using as a bargaining chip and preventing it from exporting its oil. . . . Trump noted the blockade will begin “shortly” and added that during the blockade U.S. forces will destroy the mines the Iranians laid in the strait. It is unclear where these mines are located. He said other countries will also participate in the blockade.
Trump Weighs Limited Strikes Against Iran After Peace Talks Collapse | Wall Street Journal
President Trump and his advisers are looking at resuming limited military strikes in Iran in addition to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a way to break a stalemate in peace talks, according to officials and people familiar with the situation. . . . Trump could also resume a full-fledged bombing campaign, though officials said that was less likely given the prospect of further destabilizing the region and the president’s aversion to prolonged military conflicts. He could also seek a more temporary blockade while he pressures allies to take responsibility for a prolonged military escort mission through the strait in the future.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s Uranium Stockpiles Were Sticking Points | New York Times
“By early Sunday, three main sticking points [in the U.S.–Iran negotiations] remained, according to two Iranian officials familiar with the talks: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium; and Iran’s demand that about $27 billion in frozen revenues held abroad be released.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
UANI CEO Ambassador Mark D. Wallace Discusses the Islamabad Talks | Fox News
“For the first time in 47 years, President Trump is willing to back [up readiness to make a deal with the Iranian regime] with a military option if Iran does what it usually does—delay or obfuscate or not even attend the negotiations.”
New Report Details Essential Components for a Diplomatic Resolution with Tehran | Fox News
The key to achieving peace with Iran includes preventing it from acquiring a nuclear weapon, placing restrictions on its missile and drone programs, and creating an international framework for the Strait of Hormuz, a nonprofit group committed to combating Iranian threats said. A 10-page report compiled by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), titled “The Islamabad Framework: The Essential Components of a Diplomatic Resolution with Iran,” lists several key provisions Iran must agree to in an effort to end the war in the Middle East.
Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, told The Sun: “Trump has the ability and capability to go even harder. The US should never be underestimated. The reality is Iran is risking military action because it thinks it will survive rather than to submit to US terms. It is highly unlikely there will be a neat ending to this.” Trump has already vowed to cause a navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz but Jason says this could be just the first in a line of strong measures the US president could take. He added: “Trump may continue to hollow out the regime’s leadership. The regime is made up of individuals who are just different variations of their ayatollah, dedicated to continuing his legacy. They may now all be subject to further decapitation strikes.” “If Iran does not play ball he will strike,” Jason continued.
“Iran’s regime feels it’s winning,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit research organization. “This is emboldening Tehran to refuse once again US offer.” “But it risks overplaying its hand,” he told RFE/RL. “The US has to change the Iranian decision-making calculus to shatter that perception of victory. This sets the stage for a military escalation.”
Threat Status | Washington Times
The bipartisan policy group United Against Nuclear Iran assesses that Iran’s ghost fleet of oil tankers continues to load cargo and transit the strait toward its primary buyer: China.
US Warned of Long Road to Iran Deal After Talks Stumble over Oil and Nuclear | The National
Mr Trump abandoned [the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] in 2018 during his first term in office. Although the US is now seeking similar assurances, the “facts on the ground” have changed since American bombers hit Iran’s nuclear sites last year, said Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran, a campaign group. “UN sanctions have snapped back on Iran which endorse zero enrichment,” he said. Before last June’s strikes “Iran had advanced its nuclear programme to such an extent that it rendered some [2015 deal] limits obsolete.”
The United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, which monitors Iranian maritime activities, announced on April 6 that at least 15 Iranian-flagged oil tankers had been detected by satellite imagery near the port of Chabahar on Iran's southeastern coast, and that these tankers were carrying crude oil.
US to Blockade Iranian Ports from 13 April | Seatrade Maritime News
Despite the conflict Iran managed to continue exporting crude via the Strait of Hormuz. According to United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) Iran was exported 1.15 million barrels of oil during March, about half the amount in February prior to the conflict. Nearly all of this volume – 1.14 million barrels was exported to China. The estimated value of these exports was $3.63 billion. “CENTCOM’s announcement transforms what has already been a de facto Iranian strangulation of commercial navigation into a lawful and declared blockade focused on Iran’s own ports. For weeks, Tehran has effectively held the Strait hostage while continuing to move its own oil to China. This action finally imposes reciprocal maritime pressure on the regime’s illicit export lifeline,” Charlie Brown, Senior Advisor at UANI, told Seatrade Maritime News.
MILITARY MATTERS & STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS
U.S. Warships Cross Strait of Hormuz for First Time Since Iran War Began | Axios
Several U.S. Navy ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, a U.S. official told Axios. . . . The move, which was not coordinated with Iran, was the first time U.S. warships crossed the strait since the beginning of the war. . . . The U.S. military’s Central Command said in a statement that two guided-missile destroyers, the USS Frank E. Peterson and the USS Michael Murphy, “transited the Strait of Hormuz and operated in the Arabian Gulf.” The operation was part of a broader mission “to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps,” CENTCOM said. Additional U.S. forces, including underwater drones, will join the clearance effort in the coming days, CENTCOM said.
Iran’s Army Says US Plan to Blockade Hormuz ‘Amounts to Piracy’ | Al Jazeera
The Iranian military says an announced naval blockade on vessels by the United States in international waters would be illegal and amount to piracy, warning that no Gulf ports would be safe if its own were threatened.
Iran Unable to Find Mines It Planted in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says | New York Times
Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments. . . . Two of the sources told CNN there are indications that Beijing is working to route the shipments through third countries to mask their true origin. The systems Beijing is preparing to transfer are shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems known as MANPADs, the sources said, which posed an asymmetric threat to low-flying US military aircraft throughout the course of the five-week war and could again if the ceasefire falls apart.
UK Will Not Join Any Trump Blockade of Strait of Hormuz | Guardian
The UK will not be involved in any blockade of the strait of Hormuz, the Guardian understands, after claims by Donald Trump on Sunday that the US would be blockading the waterway with the assistance of Nato allies. . . . [T]here have been concerns in Whitehall that complying with Trump’s demand to send ships could escalate the crisis. The UK’s willingness to consider a role in mine-removal operations is seen as distinct from Trump’s blockade proposal.
[Israel Defense Forces] Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has ordered the military to move to heightened alert and prepare for the possibility of a renewed military confrontation with Iran in the near term. . . . At the same time, the Military Intelligence Directorate is increasing the pace of building its target bank in Iran, focusing primarily on military objectives, including missile systems, launchers and supporting infrastructure. Officials familiar with the details said the accelerated update of targets is designed to ensure operational flexibility and enable rapid strikes should a political decision be made.
Netanyahu Says War with Iran Is ‘Not Yet Over’ | New York Times
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel sought to mollify criticism at home that the war with Iran failed to achieve its goals in a televised address on Saturday, even as he pointedly avoided discussing the weekend negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. . . . In a 13-minute address on Saturday night, Mr. Netanyahu told the Israeli public that “the battle is not yet over,” without elaborating. He then argued that Israel had already achieved “historic accomplishments” in the fighting.
Tankers Exit Gulf via Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran Talks Begin | Reuters
Three supertankers fully laden with oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, shipping data showed, in what appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal. . . . The Liberia-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Serifos and China-flagged VLCCs Cospearl Lake and He Rong Hai, entered and exited the “Hormuz Passage trial anchorage” that bypasses Iran’s Larak Island on Saturday, LSEG data showed. Each vessel is capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil. Serifos, which LSEG and Kpler data showed is chartered by Thai state-owned energy firm PTT (PTT.BK), opens new tab, is among seven vessels that Malaysia sought clearance from Iran to transit the strait, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. The tanker, carrying crude loaded from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in early March, is expected to arrive at Malaysia’s Malacca port on April 21, data from LSEG and analytics firm Kpler showed.
“I could take out Iran in one day... in one hour. I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their power-generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it, because if you do it, it takes ten years to build . . . they’ll never be able to rebuild it,” Trump added. The president also said that he took out a bridge in Iran “just to show them because they came out with a statement.”
How to Succeed in Iran | Seth Cropsey and Shay Khatiri in the Wall Street Journal
The cease-fire the U.S. hastily agreed to with Iran became necessary because of President Trump’s unforced errors—making unsupportable threats—and the U.S. military’s lack of preparation to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations for an indefinite cease-fire will now occur over the next nearly two weeks. It is critical that the Trump administration not give up on its wartime objectives in the name of diplomatic deal making. . . . If Iran accepts these objectives during diplomatic talks, great. If not, the administration should resume the strikes until its objectives are met rather than compromise with an adversary that is militarily, economically and politically outmatched.
DIPLOMACY
No Deal: Vance and Iranians Fail to Reach Agreement after Marathon Session | Politico
“Marathon negotiations with Iran in Pakistan this weekend failed to produce a breakthrough that would definitively end the war, which is entering its seventh week.”
Iran’s Top Negotiator Says Talks Failed Because U.S. Failed to Win Trust | New York Times
Iranian officials on Sunday emphasized a lack of trust in American negotiators but appeared to leave the door open for further diplomacy after marathon peace talks in Pakistan ended without a deal.
“The Door is Not Closed”: Mediators Rush to Revive U.S.-Iran Talks | Axios
Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators will continue talks with the U.S. and Iran in the coming days in an effort to bridge the remaining gaps and reach a deal to end the war, according to a regional source and a U.S. official. . . . All parties still believe a deal is possible. The mediators hope that narrowing the gaps could enable another round of negotiations before the ceasefire expires on April 21.
US Denies Agreeing to Unfreeze Iran Assets After Conflicting Reports | Iran International
A US official denied on Saturday that Washington had agreed to release frozen assets belonging to Iran, contradicting earlier reports. Reuters had reported that the United States agreed to release Iranian funds held in Qatar and other foreign banks, citing a senior Iranian source, which described the move as a goodwill step ahead of talks.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
How Iran Is Using Executions to Crush Dissent | CBC News (Video)
Human rights groups say Iran is speeding up executions of political dissidents and anti-regime protesters who took to the streets in January. Families and activists say any negotiations to end the war must be conditioned on ending the killings.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
How Hong Kong Helps the Flow of Iran’s Hidden Billions | Wall Street Journal
For years, Hong Kong has flourished as China’s hub for helping Iran survive punishing sanctions, much to the frustration of U.S. officials who have engaged in a whack-a-mole campaign to shut down billions of dollars in trade. . . . China has helped Tehran endure years of U.S.-enforced isolation and has allowed it to sell oil and buy missile parts, drone components and other supplies to build up its military.
How Iran, Suffering Under Sanctions, Diversified Its Economy | New York Times
[D]espite persistent efforts by the United States, the European Union, Britain and the United Nations Security Council to choke off Iran’s international trade and freeze assets, the country has managed to keep doing business with much of the world, a New York Times analysis shows. The nation has exchanged goods with more than 170 nations since 2019, even as international restrictions have fueled inflation, soaring unemployment and civil unrest. Overall trade is down, but the country has imported much needed food, electronics and auto parts while it sells oil, gas, construction materials, specialty foods and thousands of other products. Sanctions hobbled Iran’s economy, but they have not broken its back. . . . [W]hat’s clear is that China has stepped up as Iran’s primary trading partner, accounting for a steadily growing share of Iran’s imports and exports over the past two decades.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran’s New Supreme Leader Has Severe and Disfiguring Wounds, Sources Say | Reuters
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still recovering from severe facial and leg injuries suffered in the airstrike that killed his father at the beginning of the war, three people close to his inner circle told Reuters. Khamenei’s face was disfigured in the attack on the supreme leader’s compound in central Tehran and he suffered a significant injury to one or both legs, all three sources said. The 56-year-old is nonetheless recovering from his wounds and remains mentally sharp, according to the people . . . He is taking part in meetings with senior officials via audio conferencing and is engaged in decision-making on major issues including the war and negotiations with Washington, two of them said.
MISCELLANEOUS
Meet the Man Behind Ghalibaf’s Tweets—Based in the U.S. | IranWire
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf led a delegation of over 80 companions to Islamabad, Pakistan, arriving early Saturday, April 11, to negotiate with representatives of U.S. President Donald Trump. Since the onset of the U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran, Ghalibaf’s name has trended as a key decision-maker within the regime. . . . Yet, throughout the 39-day war, written messages on Telegram and specific tweets with a distinct tone appeared daily on his “X” account. These tweets, sometimes in English and sometimes peppered with emojis or Gen Z “memes,” addressed the American public directly, warning of economic fallout and risks to American soldiers. Observers noted that the sophisticated English, the grasp of American societal anxieties, and the use of internet subculture suggested the work of an advisor who is fluent in English, understands the American psyche, and belongs to Iran’s “Third Generation.” This report introduces one of Ghalibaf’s closest former (and perhaps current) advisors residing in the United States.