TOP STORIES
Iran and Israel Halt Exchanges of Fire | Wall Street Journal
“Iran and Israel ended multiple exchanges of fire Monday but left open the possibility of resuming attacks that pressured President Trump’s fragile Middle East ceasefire. Trump had intervened in the violent, hourslong back-and-forth, saying Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting’ and declaring that both countries wanted an immediate ceasefire. Shortly afterward, Iran’s military headquarters said it was ending operations by its armed forces against Israel, having ‘delivered a painful response’ to that country. ‘Should aggression and hostile actions continue—including in southern Lebanon—far more severe and forceful measures than before will follow,’ it said, according to Iranian state media. ‘Right now, the fire is on hold, because after we struck the terror regime in Tehran, it ceased attacking us,’ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said . . . ‘Should the terror regime in Iran make the mistake of attacking us again—we will respond with force,” he added . . . In an early test of Iran’s pledge, Israel carried out an airstrike in southern Lebanon on Monday, according to an Israeli military official and Lebanese state media. Hezbollah fired three rockets at Israeli troops in southern Lebanon afterward, some of which were intercepted on their way toward Israeli territory, Israel’s military said.”
Why Iran Risked an Attack on Israel | New York Times
“At first glance, Tehran’s retaliation for Israeli attacks in Lebanon might seem like a reckless act that risks rekindling a devastating regional war. For Iran, those strikes were necessary—part of a more aggressive posturing that marks a strategic shift by its new rulers. For them, the lesson of the war has been that forceful retaliation has allowed them to survive, and even emerge with leverage against their more powerful enemies. . . . With its actions, Iran wants to show it is serious about defending its regional militia allies. That position had been undermined by its former leaders when they refrained from retaliating against Israeli attacks in 2024 that badly degraded Hezbollah and killed its charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah. . . . Iran’s new leaders have also found President Trump more responsive to their more aggressive strategy. Last week, he convinced Israel not to strike Beirut. On Monday, after Israel’s strikes on Beirut’s outskirts and Iran’s retaliation, he called for both sides to step back.”
Crew Rescued After U.S. Helicopter Goes Down near Iran | Axios
“A U.S. Army AH-64 Apache went down near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and officials are investigating whether Iranian fire brought it down, two American officials and a third source with knowledge tell Axios. . . . Both crew members were rescued around 7:30pm ET, about two hours after the helicopter went down off the coast of Oman, U.S. Central Command said in a post on X. They are in stable condition.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
“Iran's World Cup soccer team is plotting a 'soft war' in America and their visas to play on US soil should be revoked, a watchdog has told Secretary of State Marco Rubio. United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) cited a speech given by an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander at a send-off rally for the team where he called for the tournament to become a ‘war battlefield.’ In an exclusive letter obtained by The Daily Mail to Secretary of State Rubio, the group claims evidence the Iranian regime plans to exploit the tournament to menace the US.”
A Deal Could Leave Iran Fatally Weakened | UANI Senior Advisor Dennis Ross in the Washington Post
“No deal with Iran is ever simple to achieve. President Donald Trump keeps claiming that an agreement is close—even as the United States and Israel exchanged limited military blows with Iran—proving once again that current efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire are no exception. Only when the hostilities truly end will one be able to fully assess the scorecard. In the short term, Iran has proven surprisingly deft at using its leverage. But over the long haul, the internal incoherence and deep-rooted failures of the Islamic Republic may yet lead to historic changes for the better in Tehran.”
Interview with UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi | BBC News
“IRGC leadership perception is that actually, through this strike [on Israel], they have managed to cause a wedge between Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. . . . That’s a very dangerous perception to have, because that will affect their calculus. If they believe they can cause a wedge between Israel and the United States through direct strikes on Israel, that increases the chances of them miscalculating and becoming even more strategically reckless. So, in the long term, conflict is on the agenda.”
“The Iranian soccer team is planning to wage a ‘soft war’ on US soil, and should be denied visas to participate in the World Cup—this is what the monitoring organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) claims in a letter sent to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.”
Interview with UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky | i24 News
“Irans regime wanted to create a new equation where Israel undertakes self defense strikes after Hezbollah rockets were fired at Northern Israeli communities and if Israel were to act in self defense Iran would retaliate directly from Iranian soil against Israel. Now that new equation is untenable for Israel’s security and that’s why we saw Prime Minister Netanyahu, likely in private coordination with President Trump, launch a retaliatory operation overnight against Iranian soil. So I think Iranian policymakers are trumpeting this new strategic doctrine, we heard today from the Chairman of the Expediency Council Sadegh Amoli Lairjani who is arguing that this new strategic doctrine had taken shape. But Israel can’t allow that to stand and I think Israel sent a very important deterrent message to the Iranian leadership that it’s not going to be able to create this linkage with Lebanon as it relates to ceasefire discussions with the Trump Administration.”
Interview with UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi | LBC
“The barrier to peace and stability in the Middle East is the ideology of [the Iranian] regime, the ideology of the IRGC. The IRGC has an ideological mission—it’s enshrined in the constitution of the Iranian state. It’s civilizational. Whereas we approach the region in a very transactional way, where our rationality is driven by cost-benefit analysis based on material interests., for them it is far more ideological, so their cost-benefit analysis is driven by their ideology. And so long as this regime exists—this regime, by the way, is the most antisemitic regime since Nazi Germany. Even the code name they used for their strikes on Israel last night, Operation True Promise, alludes to the alleged true promise by the sixth Shia Imam who allegedly promised that the Jews would be annihilated by the people of Qom. Effectively, it has the same connotations as ‘Final Solution.’”
Interview with UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi | LBC
“Israel is a sovereign state and it will make its own national security decision making. . . . It is surrounded by hostile Islamist extremist terrorist groups. It has to protect and preserve its national security first and foremost. Now, th[e] relationship between Israel and the United States is long-standing, it’s a special relationship. The very terrorists who seek to inflict harm on Western society, including here, in Britain are the very terrorists who seek to destroy the State of Israel. That special relationship between Israel and the United States will exist regardless of whichever president is in charge.”
“United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) quoted a speech by the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at the [Iranian national soccer] team’s rally, where he called for the tournament to become a ‘battlefield of war.’ In an exclusive letter obtained by The Daily Mail for Secretary of State Rubio, the group claims that the Iranian regime plans to use the tournament to threaten the US.”
Iran Suffers Its Biggest Oil Blow in Six Years | The Officer (Translated from Spanish)
“United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is raising its assessment of the blockade, asserting that Iran failed to successfully move crude oil beyond the blockade during May. The organization interprets this lack of outlets as a sign that naval pressure has altered the risk calculations of buyers, shipping companies, insurers, and intermediaries.”
“If we look at the data put out from United Against Nuclear Iran, they are showing at least 71 tankers loaded with Iranian oil . . . that are either sitting inside the Persian Gulf in the Strait of Hormuz or out in the Gulf of Oman.”
MILITARY MATTERS
Senior Iranian Cleric: Attack on Israel Was the Beginning of a New Defense Policy | IranWire
“Sadeq Amoli Larijani, the chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, described Iran's recent attacks on Israel as a sign of the beginning of a ‘new chapter’ in the Islamic Republic's defense policy. According to a report by Tasnim News Agency, Amoli Larijani stated that Iran's attack, carried out in response to Israel's strikes and in support of Lebanon, was ‘not merely a military response,’ but rather the official declaration of a ‘strategic doctrine.’ The chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council claimed that the Islamic Republic's military action carried the message that ‘any aggression against one of the members’ of what the Islamic Republic calls the ‘Axis of Resistance’ will face a response extending beyond geographical borders and could alter regional equations.”
Iran Says ‘New Security Belt’ Emerging from Hormuz to Bab Al-Mandeb | Al Jazeera
“Iran’s Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani says a ‘new security belt’ is emerging from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandeb, warning the US and Israel that further aggression will trigger a coordinated regional response. According to Iran’s official IRNA news agency, Qaani said allied groups across the region had shown deeper coordination, particularly after recent actions from Yemen. ‘The timely and powerful action of heroic Yemen shows the wisdom of the resistance front. If necessary, others will also join,’ he said. Qaani said Israeli and US actions had pushed the region towards a broader confrontation.”
Iran’s Attack on Israel Reveals New and Aggressive Regional Ambitions | Wall Street Journal
“Iran’s series of ballistic-missile salvos aimed at Israel signal Tehran’s desire to project power across the region, put Washington on the defensive and demonstrate that it retains significant strike capabilities despite the intense air campaign waged against it by the U.S. and Israel. Tehran’s leaders appear to be gambling that missile attacks and President Trump’s desire to keep a possible peace deal on track will pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back his offensive against the Iranian allied-Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, after Israel launched an airstrike in Beirut on Sunday.”
Rubio’s Backing Helped Israel Secure Trump’s Green Light to Strike Iran | Israel Hayom
“Israel and the US are fully coordinated, both on the strikes in Dahiyeh in Beirut and on the Israeli response to the missile fire from Iran. That diplomatic coordination is what ultimately resolved the short two-day round of fighting, after President Donald Trump was persuaded that Iran must not be allowed to achieve gains as a result of its attack on Israel. . . . It appeared that Netanyahu had no choice but to show restraint, but in the early hours of Monday morning, Israel attacked. What happened in between changed the picture. After Trump’s remarks, the two leaders held a fairly lengthy conversation, followed by a security and diplomatic consultation by the prime minister in Jerusalem and the president at the White House, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio playing a significant role in that discussion. According to the sources Israel Hayom spoke with, Israel launched the strike after coordination and American consent, in effect consent from Trump himself. The lines that were drawn were for a powerful strike, but one limited to several hours. The targets were also agreed upon.”
Trump Struggled to Rein in Netanyahu’s Strikes on Iran | Wall Street Journal
“As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu weighed how to respond to waves of Iranian missile attacks Sunday night, President Trump called with a message: Stand down. But as it became clear the Israeli leader wouldn’t ignore a direct attack, Trump shifted his tone. Keep it limited, and don’t let it escalate, he said according to people familiar with the conversation. . . . On another call Monday morning, after several rounds of back-and-forth attacks in which Israel struck an Iranian petrochemical facility and Iran threatened to retaliate against energy facilities around the region, Trump asked Netanyahu to end the attacks, people familiar with the matter said. The Israeli leader later publicly agreed to refrain from further strikes—unless Tehran launched new assaults on his country.”
“President Trump asked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to pull back from escalating his country’s strikes against Iran during a call on Monday morning, telling the Israeli leader that the United States and Iran were within days of a breakthrough clearing the way for talks on a long-term nuclear deal, according to multiple officials briefed on the call. After speaking with Mr. Trump, Mr. Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to hold off on fresh strikes on Iran that were scheduled to be conducted a short time later, both U.S. and Israeli officials said.”
How Israel and Iran Nearly Pulled Trump Back to War | Axios
“Trump found himself in a dilemma. On the one hand, he understood it would be nearly impossible for his key ally Benjamin Netanyahu to let an Iranian missile attack go unanswered. On the other hand, he was concerned the tit-for-tat would lead to all-out war. Trump told Axios in a phone interview that he'd warned the Israeli prime minister if he went back to war with Iran, he might find himself fighting alone. . . . Trump called Netanyahu on Sunday evening and asked him not to retaliate, a U.S. official said. Trump argued that either he would get a deal with Iran in a few days that would make the strikes unnecessary, or he wouldn’t — in which case he might lead the strikes on Iran, an Israeli source briefed on the call said. . . . The Israeli source said Netanyahu argued that not responding to the Iranian attack would be bad for Israel, bad for the U.S. and bad for the deal Trump was trying to negotiate. His argument was that inaction would send the message that Iran has the upper hand and can deter the U.S. and Israel from taking military action.”
“No Israeli prime minister can refrain from retaliating against an attack from Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Donald Trump in a phone call this morning, an Israeli official told NBC News. ‘You can’t normalize 11 ballistic missiles shooting at Israel, you just can’t,’ the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said after confirming that Trump had asked his Israeli counterpart not to retaliate in a call yesterday. During their conversation this morning, Netanyahu told the president Israel will not continue firing at Iran because Iran has stopped firing missiles at Israel. However, if Iran resumes its attack, Netanyahu said Israel will retaliate, the official said.”
US Allies Seek Trump’s Approval of Hormuz Demining Mission | Bloomberg
“US allies will seek President Donald Trump’s approval for a Europe-led plan to demine the Strait of Hormuz at next week’s Group of Seven summit in France. The UK and France are leading the mine-clearing mission, which is operationally ready after work by military planners from more than 15 countries. The plan would have American allies deploy assets to the strait within days of a peace deal between the US and Iran.”
Trump on Netanyahu: ‘If I Tell Him to Do Something, He Does It’ | Times of Israel
“In a reported conversation with the BBC, Trump denies that Netanyahu had defied him by ordering military action against Iran in response to missile attacks on Israel, saying: ‘If I tell him to do something, he does it.’ ‘All I said [to Netanyahu] was we have to use common sense, we’re close to signing a very powerful deal, a very good deal,’ the BBC reports the US president as saying. The BBC says Trump was then asked if Netanyahu had defied him. ‘No, no. That’s not what happened,’ Trump says. ‘[The missiles] had already gone, they were already on their way.’”
DIPLOMACY
Trump Says Talks with Iran in “Final Throes,” with Deal Likely in “Two or Three Days” | CBS News
“President Trump said Tuesday that negotiators were in the ‘final throes’ of talks for a peace deal in the Middle East, after Iran and Israel said they were halting fresh hostilities that threatened to reignite the months-long war. . . . Asked whether it would be a matter of days or weeks, he said it would take ‘two or three days.’
Iran Official Says US Changes to Draft Memo Unacceptable—Al Jazeera | Iran International
“The Trump administration has made unacceptable changes to the draft memorandum with Iran, Al Jazeera reported, citing an Iranian official. ‘Without the release of frozen assets and the lifting of sanctions, no deal is possible,’ the official was quoted as saying.”
Ghalibaf Says Iran Not Afraid of US Talks Collapsing | Iran International
“Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a Monday audio message that Iran’s military action showed it was ‘not afraid of negotiations being cut off,’ arguing that battlefield pressure and diplomacy must work together to secure Tehran’s aims. ‘Neither diplomacy prevents military operations, nor do military operations prevent diplomacy,’ he said. ‘At one point, with the threat of an attack and cutting off negotiations, you prevent Israel’s attack on Beirut. At another point, with an attack, you show that you are not afraid of negotiations being cut off and that you are fully prepared.’”
UN Watchdog, Western Nations Call on Iran to Restart Nuclear Cooperation | Al Jazeera
“The head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog has called on Iran to ‘re-engage’ with inspections of its nuclear sites while the US and European partners have demanded information on the whereabouts of its enriched uranium.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
E.U. Sanctions IRGC Navy over Strait of Hormuz Blockade | NBC News
“The European Union has imposed sanctions on Iran’s navy for restricting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. . . . They sanctioned the IRGC Navy’s Hormozgan Provincial Command, as well as Mohammad Akbarzadeh, the navy’s deputy commander for political affairs, and Hamid Hosseini, a representative of Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals Exporters Union. They will have their assets frozen and be hit with travel bans, and providing them funds or economic resources is prohibited.”
EXTREMISM
State Dept. Accuses Top U.S. Foes of Weaponized Antisemitism | Axios
“A new State Department report accuses Iran, Russia and China of incorporating antisemitic narratives, threats and attacks into operations in both the physical and cyber domains. . . . The report alleges that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leveraged social media bots to amplify antisemitic narratives. It also details threats in the physical world, including an IRGC plot to assassinate a rabbi in Azerbaijan.”
HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Hezbollah Urges Lebanon Authorities to Mend Ties with Iran | Arab News Japan
“Hezbollah on Tuesday urged Lebanese authorities to mend their relationship with the group’s backer Iran and benefit from Tehran’s support, days after Iran struck Israel in response to bombardment on south Beirut.”
MISCELLANEOUS
Iran Says Entire Ticket Allocation for World Cup Withdrawn Days Before Tournament | Independent
“Iran’s football federation (FFIRI) have claimed that its ticket allocation for the World Cup has been pulled just days before football’s global showpiece kicks off. This leaves supporters who had already made travel plans unable to attend their team’s matches, with the FFIRI calling it a decision ‘to sabotage the presence of Iranian fans’ at the tournament.”