TOP STORIES
New Assessment Finds Site at Focus of U.S. Strikes in Iran Badly Damaged | New York Times
Iran’s deeply buried nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo was badly damaged, and potentially destroyed, by the 12 massive bombs that U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers dropped on it last month, according to a new American intelligence assessment. Two other nuclear sites targeted in the U.S. attacks were not as badly damaged, but facilities at the sites that would be key to fabricating a nuclear weapon were destroyed and could take years to rebuild, U.S. officials said.
Europeans Warn Iran of UN Sanctions If No Concrete Progress on Nuclear Issue | Reuters
France, Britain and Germany told Iran on Thursday that they would restore U.N. sanctions unless it reopened talks on its nuclear programme immediately and produced concrete results by the end of August.
Iran Is Moving to Rearm Its Militia Allies | Wall Street Journal
Iran suffered a significant setback when Israel killed top military leaders and the U.S. struck its nuclear facilities, but a pattern of high-value weapons seizures shows Tehran is making new efforts to arm its militia allies across the Middle East. Forces allied with Yemen’s internationally recognized government this week intercepted a major shipment of missiles, drone parts and other military gear sent to Houthi rebels on the Red Sea coast. Syria’s new government says it has seized a number of weapons cargoes, including Grad rockets—for use in multiple-launch systems mounted on trucks—along its borders with Iraq and Lebanon. The Lebanese army, meanwhile, has seized shipments brought in across its border with Syria that include Russian antitank missiles favored by Hezbollah.
NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has called on European powers to halt threats against Tehran, including warnings about reinstating UN sanctions. Tehran's top diplomat wrote on X on July 18 that he told his British, French, and German counterparts, as well as the EU foreign policy chief, during a joint call that Europe “should act responsibly” and abandon “worn-out policies of threat and pressure.”
Iran Bomb Damage Intel Suggests Two Nuclear Sites Not ‘Obliterated’ | Washington Post
The United States has assessed that only one of Iran’s three principal nuclear facilities was destroyed in U.S. strikes last month, officials and people familiar with ongoing assessments said, prompting renewed questions about President Donald Trump’s claim that Tehran’s nuclear program had been “totally obliterated.” Of the three facilities targeted in a massive nighttime bombing run, the results of the damage at the Fordow site have been the clearest to assess, according to U.S. officials and a congressional aide familiar with briefings provided to lawmakers.
HOSTAGES
Family of French Teen Detained in Iran Says He's Innocent, Demands Proof of Life | Times of Israel
The family of a 19-year-old Franco-German cyclist arrested in Iran while on a Europe-to-Asia bike trip said on Thursday he was innocent and demanded proof he was alive from Iranian authorities. Family and friends of Lennart Monterlos said in a statement sent to AFP that they had not received any explanation for his arrest since he disappeared in Iran on June 16, several days into unprecedented Israeli airstrikes on Iran that targeted its nuclear and ballistic missile program.
PROTESTS AND HUMAN RIGHTS
Double Murder in Tehran Exposes Growing Anger Over Iran’s Brutal Judiciary | Politico
Many of the closest allies of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have met violent deaths in the past months. While international observers have focused on Israel’s assassinations of Tehran’s top commanders and nuclear scientists in airstrikes in June, the killing of two — or possibly three — prominent judges early this year has attracted much less attention. Those murders are significant, however, as they starkly revealed a major cause of swelling popular discontent in the Islamic Republic.
Basketball Body Deletes Iranian Women’s Dance Video After Tehran Complaint | Iran International
The International Basketball Federation (FIBA) is facing mounting criticism for removing a video showing the women's team from Iran dancing in celebration after Iranian authorities deemed it “un-Islamic” and formally demanded its removal. . . . “Red lines exist only for women. Men can express their happiness however they wish," sports journalist Saeedeh Fathi told Iran International TV, adding that the incident shows how “even a simple expression of joy by women is intolerable” to the Islamic Republic.
‘Our Silence Didn’t Protect Him’: Daughter Pleads for Father on Death Row in Iran | Guardian
In late October 2022, as protests over 22-year-old Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody swept across Iran, Rezgar Beigzadeh Babamiri, a father of three, was racing through alleyways in the city of Bukan, in western Iran, carrying medical supplies to secret clinics where doctors treated injured demonstrators in defiance of the state. Many of the wounded were too afraid to seek hospital care after reports of secret police patrolling wards, interrogating patients and detaining injured protesters. By helping, Babamiri, a 47-year-old fruit and vegetable farmer, did not see himself as a revolutionary but simply as someone doing what was right, says his daughter, Zhino. . . Last week, the family heard from a lawyer that Babamiri had been sentenced to death, along with four other Kurdish men, after being charged with “armed insurrection”, “leading and forming an armed group” and “espionage for Israel”.
Iran Has a Mass-Deportation Policy Too | Arash Azizi in the Atlantic
Last month’s war with Israel and the United States lasted only 12 days, but Iran is likely to feel its consequences for years. The country’s intelligence services failed to prevent Israel from assassinating many top military officials, and now the Iranian regime is lashing out in all directions. It has handed down harsher sentences to political prisoners, harassed members of religious and ethnic minorities, and executed dozens of people. But one community has suffered perhaps more than any other: Afghan migrants in Iran, who number as many as 6 million by some estimates.
Iranian Jews—Safe Through Silence | Yedioth Ahronoth
Silence is a strategy for Iranian Jews. They must ensure they are never suspected of being Zionists. Simply uttering the word “Israel” can be grounds for arrest. They can live openly as Jews, but their safety is conditional; they are always under a watchful eye. This reality poses a great challenge for Iranian Jews in the diaspora who still have ties to family members or Jewish acquaintances back home. Following Iran’s recent humiliation by Israeli intelligence in the latest conflict, the regime is seeking spies among the Iranian Jewish community.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Iran Says Intelligence Shows US Girding for War—State TV | Iran International
Iran has intelligence indicating that the United States is using diplomatic overtures as cover for military preparations, state TV reported citing an unnamed Iranian official who said Tehran should prepare for conflict instead of engaging in talks. “Our intelligence indicates Washington seeks talks to prepare for war, not peace,” Press TV reported on Thursday citing the senior political official. "If so, we see no reason to waste time and would rather focus on preparing for conflict."
Pentagon Dismisses Report That US Strike on Iran Only Destroyed 1 Nuclear Site | The Hill
The Trump administration is pressing back on a new intelligence assessment, first reported by NBC News, that contradicts President Trump’s repeated assertions that U.S. airstrikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities last month. . . . “The credibility of the Fake News Media is similar to that of the current state of the Iranian nuclear facilities: destroyed, in the dirt, and will take years to recover,” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said . . . “President Trump was clear and the American people understand: Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz were completely and totally obliterated.”
The Israeli Air Force’s Defining Moment That Brought Iran to Its Knees | Israel Hayom
The IAF battle order known as "Iron Man," which enabled the spectacular operation that opened the Israel-Iran war, is revealed.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was forced to complete part of a recent trip to Tabriz by taxi after the fuel in three official vehicles was found to be contaminated with water, leading to a mechanical failure, a senior government official said on Tuesday. . . . Fuel adulteration is a recurring issue in Iran, where motorists frequently complain of watered-down gasoline or manipulation of pump meters. Videos circulated in recent years appear to show mismatches between fuel dispensed and prices charged, fueling widespread public distrust.
Some Iranian Hardliners Demand Khamenei Declare Jihad | IranWire
Some hardline groups in Iran are urging Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to declare jihad against Israel and the United States. In several Iranian cities, Basij militiamen on motorcycles cruise through the streets chanting, “Woe if Khamenei gives me the order for jihad.” Despite mounting pressure, Khamenei has called for patience. In a speech on July 16, he said, “Impatience is harmful. When people keep stamping their feet, saying, ‘Sir, why didn't it happen? Why didn't you act?’—this is harmful.”
CHINA & IRAN
China Was on the Sidelines of the Iran-Israel War. That’s Just Where It Wanted to Be | CNN
Weeks after his country was battered by waves of Israeli strikes and the US bombed three of its prized nuclear facilities, Iran’s foreign minister came to a gathering of regional diplomats in China this week with a simple ask. Their group, the Beijing and Moscow-backed Shanghai Cooperation Organization, should have a way to coordinate response to military aggression and play a “central role” in addressing such threats, Abbas Araghchi said, according to Iranian state media.
EUROPE & IRAN
On Friday, the Belgian parliament almost unanimously backed a resolution calling for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be added to the European Union’s list of terrorist organisations. They also agreed on tougher migration rules. . . . Belgian MPs want to see the implementation of stricter economic retaliatory measures against the Iranian regime, and called for an expanded list of sanctioned individuals to include members of the judiciary and senior officials overseeing the Iranian prison system.
ISRAEL & IRAN
Bedouin Teacher, IDF Soldier Latest to Be Charged with Spying for Iran | Times of Israel
Prosecutors charged two Israeli citizens, a Bedouin teacher and an IDF soldier, with spying for Iran, the police and Shin Bet said in joint statements on Thursday in the latest of a string of cases of Tehran tempting Israelis into performing tasks for payment.
Iran Military Chiefs Warn of Renewed Conflict with Israel | Iran International
Iran’s top military commanders warned on Thursday that the armed forces are ready to resume fighting in the wake of the 12-day war with Israel amid a ceasefire brokered by the US. . . . Earlier in the day, a senior Iranian lawmaker also warned that Iran would respond to any future Israeli attack with a blow more severe than last month’s conflict.
CANADA & IRAN
The war-torn theocratic nation of Iran has become the second highest source country of refugee claims to Canada (after India). Last year, more than 6,600 people from the Persian Gulf country submitted asylum requests. Metro Vancouver immigration lawyer Ram Joubin, an Iranian-Canadian who specializes in refugee and human-rights law, said he frequently rejects potential clients from Iran because they have a suspicious past, a sign of links to Iran’s autocratic rulers. “The concern is that some people from Iran are using the refugee system to come here to actually spy on Canadians,” Joubin said this week. The volume of applicants from the Islamic Republic of Iran, also known as Persia, is a red flag to human-rights activists who worry Canada might inadvertently take in some applicants with close ties to the country’s brutally repressive regime.
MISCELLANEOUS
A Slight Majority of Americans Support Strikes Against Iran, Poll Says | Jewish News Syndicate
A slight majority of Americans approve of the Trump administration’s military actions in mid-June that bombed three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to a recent poll. Among partisan lines, 87% of Republicans supported the strikes, compared to 33% of Democrats and 52% of Independents. Additionally, 54% of Americans said the airstrikes “restored American deterrence,” while 46% did not. A total of 51% said that the strike did “severe damage” to Iran’s nuclear facilities, while 49% said it did not. . . . A whopping 86% overall said Iran should not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
Are Arab States Replacing Iran and Russia as Regional Power Brokers? | Iran International
A recent flurry of high-level meetings across Central Asia and the Middle East signals a quiet but marked shift: Iran and Russia are increasingly sidelined in the region’s political and economic realignments in favor of Arab states. Once dominant mediators in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, both were notably absent as the United Arab Emirates hosted direct talks between Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders late last week.