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Iran’s new supreme leader has rejected de-escalation proposals conveyed to Tehran by intermediaries, demanding Israel and the United States first be “brought to their knees,” a senior Iranian official said on Tuesday. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had held his first foreign policy session since being named supreme leader, and had taken a stance for revenge against the U.S. and Israel that was “very tough and serious,” the official said, without clarifying whether the leader attended in person or remotely.
[Israeli] Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that Ismail Khatib, Iran’s intelligence minister, was eliminated. “During this day, significant surprises are expected across all fronts that will escalate the war we are waging against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon,” Katz said. “The intensity of the strikes in Iran is increasing—overnight, Iran’s intelligence minister Khatib was also eliminated. The prime minister and I authorized the Israel Defense Forces to target any senior Iranian official once actionable intelligence is obtained, without the need for additional approval.”
Russia Is Sharing Satellite Imagery and Drone Technology with Iran | Wall Street Journal
Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to aid Tehran’s targeting of U.S. forces in the region, people familiar with the matter said. Russia is trying to keep its closest Middle Eastern partner in the fight against U.S. and Israeli military might and prolong a war that is benefiting Russia militarily and economically. The technology provided includes components of modified Shahed drones, which are meant to improve communication, navigation and targeting, the people said. Russia has also been drawing on its experience using drones in Ukraine, offering tactical guidance on how many drones should be used in operations and what altitudes they should strike from, said the people, who included a senior European intelligence officer. Russia has been providing Iran with the locations of U.S. military forces in the Middle East as well as those of its regional allies, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Israel’s Killing of Ali Larijani Could Allow Military to Tighten Grip on Iran | New York Times
Mr. [Ali] Larijani’s killing elevates even further Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and a former Revolutionary Guards commander who serves as a link between Mojtaba Khamenei, the state bureaucracy and the Guards, said [UANI Senior Advisor] Saeid Golkar, a professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga who studies Iran’s security forces. “He’s going to continue the war,” Mr. Golkar said. “They believe they are going to create another Vietnam War for the United States.”
Spies, Lies and a New Wave of Repression from Iran’s Paranoid Regime | Times of London
Kasra Aarabi, the director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, said the repressive measures were most acute in Tehran, the capital, where martial law had been implemented.“The environment is now suffocating,” Aarabi said. “People I have spoken to say that they are now even minimising their grocery shopping to avoid being out on the street as much as possible.” . . . “Martial law in January only happened after the uprising began,” Aarabi said. “The regime was effectively caught off guard that time, enabling people to get out on the streets for a time. But these current security layers were pre-emptively activated to prevent that happening again. Now Tehran is effectively a garrison city.”
UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi Discusses Mojtaba Khamenei | NPR’s On Point
Aarabi: “Mojtaba's view from a very early age would've been shaped by an ideology that can only be described as violent, Islamist and extremist, and anti-Semitic to its core. . . . At the age of 17, Mojtaba joins the IRGC. Now he joins a particularly notorious ideological unit in the IRGC . . . .”
Under Khatib’s leadership, Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security initiated crackdowns against “activists, journalists, and members of religious minority communities,” according to the nonprofit and non-partisan policy group, United Against Nuclear Iran.
UANI Research Director Daniel Roth Discusses Iran War | LiveNow from Fox
LiveNOW's Andy Mac spoke about Larijani's death and the ongoing Iran war with Daniel Roth, from United Against Nuclear Iran.
Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, told The Sun [Ali Larijani’s] removal could fatally weaken Tehran from within. He said: “Ali Larijani’s demise is a loss for the Islamic Republic.” But he added the hit could actually speed up the regime’s downfall—stripping it of experienced leadership and leaving hardliners exposed. Brodsky warned: “Now the more hardline leadership will make mistakes and that will accelerate the decline of the Islamic Republic faster than would have otherwise been the case.”
Who becomes his replacement is set to mark one of the most crucial decisions in Iran’s history, says Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran. Brodsky believes that if the regime picks an anti-Trump and anti-Israel figure hellbent on revenge then it could very easily “accelerate the decline of the Islamic Republic.”
Reacting to Simpson’s post, leading Iran expert Kasra Aarabi of United Against Nuclear Iran said: “Ali Larijani—a former IRGC commander—was personally involved in, and responsible for, the massacre of 40,000 unarmed Iranian civilians in January. Yet @JohnSimpsonNews describes him as ‘clever and reasonable.’”
MILITARY MATTERS
Iran Still Seen Capable of Escalating Attacks on Gulf’s Energy | Financial Times
Iran is capable of sharply escalating its campaign against energy infrastructure in the Gulf, analysts have warned, after Tehran carried out its first successful strike on an operational oil and gasfield. “The gloves haven’t come off yet when it comes to striking energy infrastructure,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at consultancy Energy Aspects. “The Iranians are now hitting a growing list of targets across the Gulf states and that strategy may have further steps to come.”
Iran Confirms Israeli Strikes Killed Top Security Official Ali Larijani | Time
Ali Larijani, one of Iran’s most senior security officials and a close associate of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was killed in Israeli strikes, state media announced in the early hours of Wednesday local time, confirming previous reports from the IDF.
Larijani’s Son, Deputy, Senior Basij Commander Also Killed in Israeli Strike | Iran International
The Israeli airstrike that killed Iran's top security official Ali Larijani also killed his deputy at the Supreme National Security Council Ali Bateni as well as Larijani’s son, who served as his special assistant, informed sources told Iran International. Qassem Qoreishi, deputy head of the Basij paramilitary organization, was also killed in the Israeli strike on the Basij meeting, the sources said.
Death of Ali Larijani Deepens Crisis at Heart of Iran’s Leadership | BBC News
The Israeli air strike which killed Iran's security chief, Ali Larijani, has removed one of the Islamic Republic's most experienced and influential policymakers at a critical moment. Larijani was not a military commander, but he was a central figure in shaping Iran's strategic decisions.
Israeli Official Says Tip from Tehran Residents Helped Enable Larijani Strike | Iran International
“The assassination of [Ali] Larijani was made possible thanks to valuable intelligence that Israeli intelligence services received from residents of Tehran over the past 24 hours,” an Israeli official told Iran International. “In recent days, Larijani had behaved arrogantly, appearing frequently in public (including at Quds Day rallies), engaging with both local and international media, and thereby exposing himself to public view, which ultimately led to his identification,” the official said.
Iran Keeps Up Attacks on Neighbors After Israel Kills 2 of Its Top Officials | Associated Press
Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel on Wednesday as sirens sounded across central Israel and loud booms were heard in Tel Aviv. Israel’s medical service, Magen David Adom, said two people were killed in Ramat Gan, a district east of Tel Aviv. With concerns growing about a global energy crisis, an Iranian official said Tehran had no intention of relinquishing its tight grip on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil.
U.S. Tells All Its Embassies to ‘Immediately’ Review Security After Strikes | Washington Post
The State Department has ordered all U.S. diplomatic posts worldwide to “immediately” undertake security evaluations, citing “the ongoing and developing situation in the Middle East and the potential for spill-over effects,” according to a cable sent Tuesday that was reviewed by The Washington Post. . . . Multiple U.S. embassies have been targeted by Iran and its proxies since the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign started Feb. 28, with several missions temporarily closing and U.S. personnel ordered to leave many countries.
Zelensky Says ‘Regimes in Russia and Iran Are Brothers in Hatred’ and Urges Allies to Unite | Time
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced the Iranian regime and likened it to the leadership in Russia as he urged allies to band together and combine resources in a rousing address to the U.K. parliament. The “regimes in Russia and Iran are brothers in hatred and that is why they are brothers in weapons,” he said. Zelensky recalled how Russia began deploying Iranian-designed Shahed drones after it invaded Ukraine in 2022 and claimed the drones being used by Iran in the current war have Russian components.
Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One | Wall Street Journal
Israeli and American leaders said at the outset that the war with Iran would create the conditions for Iranians to topple their regime. The killings early Tuesday were milestones in that campaign made possible by the fast-accumulating damage from airstrikes and a growing harvest of intelligence about possible targets. With thousands of regime members killed—from top leaders to street-level grunts—Iranians are reporting that a sense of disorder is starting to take hold. Security forces are under stress and on the run as they threaten protesters to stay off the streets and direct strikes at the U.S., Israel and Arab neighbors across the Persian Gulf. . . . Israeli intelligence officials began placing calls to individual commanders, threatening them and their families by name if they didn’t stand aside in the event of an uprising, according to people familiar with the matter.
300 IRGC Basij Field Agents Killed in Overnight Strikes | Iran International
Around 300 Basij commanders and field officials were killed in a wave of overnight strikes on key command and operational centers of Iran’s Basij forces, Iran International has learned. . . . Facilities linked to the Mohammad Rasoulollah Corps, the IRGC unit responsible for the greater Tehran area, were struck. The Imam Hadi security unit, a strategic command center in Tehran, was also heavily damaged. The Imam Ali security battalions, which have played a central role in cracking down on protests, also suffered heavy personnel and equipment losses.
Trump Says U.S. Does Not ‘Need or Desire’ Help from Allies on Iran | New York Times
President Trump said on Tuesday that he was not afraid to put U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, and that the United States did not “need or desire” any help from U.S. allies to open the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump said he was unbothered by the reluctance of NATO countries to support the war that he launched with Israel. “This was a great test” of NATO countries, he said, speaking alongside Micheál Martin, the prime minister of Ireland. Mr. Trump added that the alliance “is making a very foolish mistake” by declining to join efforts to push oil shipments through the narrow waterway by force. “We helped them, but they didn’t help us,” he continued, complaining that the United States had sent hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, most of it under former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., but that Europe failed to offer even mine sweepers to help in Iran.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Tehran Warns of Crackdown Ahead of Annual Fire Festival | Iran International
Authorities in Tehran have issued sweeping warnings ahead of Iran’s annual fire festival, Chaharshanbeh Suri, framing the centuries-old celebration as a potential flashpoint for unrest during wartime. . . . Judicial and security bodies have sent text messages directly to citizens. One such message, reportedly from a provincial justice department, warned that any “noise, commotion or unconventional behaviour” that disrupts public order could result in punishments including imprisonment and flogging. On Tuesday, chief justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei warned dissenters and repeated orders to confiscate the assets of those deemed “collaborators with the enemy,” again raising the possibility of capital punishment. . . . The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) spokesman, Brigadier General Ali-Mohammad Naeini, used even sharper language, describing the day as a “Charshanbeh of burning enemies.”
Israel Urges Iranians to Revolt but Privately Assesses They’ll Be ‘Slaughtered’ | Washington Post
Senior Israeli officials have told U.S. diplomats that Iranian protesters will “get slaughtered” if they take to the streets against their government even as Israel publicly calls for a popular uprising, according to a State Department cable reviewed by The Washington Post. The cable, circulated by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem on Friday, relayed an Israeli assessment that Iran’s regime is “not cracking” and is willing to “fight to the end” despite the Feb. 28 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the ongoing U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign.
Iran Authorities Confiscate ‘Hundreds of Starlink Devices’ | BBC News
Iran's Ministry of Intelligence says in a statement that it has confiscated “hundreds of Starlink devices sent by the enemy”—referring to the US and Israel, Iranian news outlets are reporting. The statement says that according to law, acquiring and using Starlink is a “crime” and during the war anyone doing so will be dealt with at the “highest penalty.”
EU Sanctions 19 Individuals, Entities in Iran Over Human Rights Violations | IranWire
On March 16, the European Union added several security and judicial officials, along with multiple suppression-linked entities of the Islamic Republic, to its sanctions list. Among the most senior figures sanctioned is Ali Akbar Pourjamshidian, the Deputy Security Minister of the Interior and Secretary of the Country’s Security Council, over alleged human rights violations.
SHIPPING, SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran Conflict Turns Shipping Market into ‘Wild West’ | Financial Times
The Middle East war has turned container shipping into a “wild west,” with carriers adding thousands of dollars in charges and dumping containers at far-flung ports, according to removal companies and customers.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Senate Democrats Prepare to Stall Chamber to Force Probe of Iran War | Time
Senate Democrats are preparing to force a series of time-consuming repeat votes on the war in Iran in the coming days that could grind the Senate to a halt, a tactic aimed as much at disrupting the chamber’s work as at compelling the Trump Administration to publicly defend a conflict that has so far unfolded with little formal scrutiny from Congress.