Iran Eyes Military Targets in Europe If Donald Trump Escalates War, Insiders Say

TOP STORIES

Iran Eyes Military Targets in Europe If Donald Trump Escalates War, Insiders Say | Financial Times

“Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe should Donald Trump escalate the war, according to people close to the regime, as Tehran considers its options to increase the stakes of the conflict. Two regime insiders told the FT that Iranian forces have assessed striking US assets in south-eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refuelling aircraft. One of the insiders added that Cyprus, where a British air base was struck by a drone in March, was also among potential targets for retaliation in the event of any renewed US offensive. The insiders said Iranian forces have separately examined attacking subsea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an escalation.”

U.A.E. Halts Trade Ties with Iran and Says It Was Targeted with Missiles | New York Times

“The United Arab Emirates said it is halting all trade and financial transactions with Iran, increasing economic pressure on the Islamic Republic, soon after accusing Iran of launching ballistic missiles toward the Emirates. . . . Dubai, the Emirates’ largest city, has long been a major trade hub for Iran, and analysts say it has been key to Iranian efforts to evade sanctions, which has elicited complaints and pressure from American authorities.”

Trump Says No Talks Are Taking Place with Iran and None Are Scheduled | Reuters

“President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that talks between the U.S. and Iran were neither taking place nor scheduled but the Strait of Hormuz was open, while Iran ​said the shipping route would remain closed until the U.S. fulfilled the ‌terms of an interim deal.”

DIPLOMACY 

Kushner Touts Unprecedented Iran Contacts as Tehran Denies Trump Backchannel | Fox News

“Senior Trump advisor Jared Kushner confirmed that communications between the U.S. and Iran are ‘more robust’ than ever, despite Iran’s denial of a backchannel between President Donald Trump and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. . . . Kushner emphasized that Trump remains committed to making a deal, but there remain severe roadblocks. Kushner emphasized that Iran needs to get serious about making a deal, saying Iranian officials have so far been trying to ‘trick’ the U.S. with false concessions and trying to ‘hide certain cards.’”

Qatar Says Hormuz Agreement Crucial for US-Iran Talks to Resume | Agence France-Presse

“Qatar, a key US-Iran mediator, says an agreement between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz would make it easier to resume negotiations to end the war.”

MILITARY MATTERS & SHIPPING

Iran’s Attacks on Ships in Hormuz Mount, Testing U.S. Military Restraint | Wall Street Journal

“Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are piling up without an American military response, raising the risks of crossing the strategic waterway and frustrating some Arab allies who worry the U.S. doesn’t have a strategy to wind down the conflict. . . . U.S. Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, hasn’t announced any retaliatory strikes on targets in Iran since late July. . . . America’s Arab allies feel caught in the middle, Gulf officials said. While they don’t want to see a resumption of higher-intensity conflict, they believe the lack of U.S. response is encouraging Iran to increase its attacks. Gulf states think Iran ultimately will respond militarily to rising economic pressure, bringing the conflict back to a boil regardless, the officials said.”

Iran Has Lost Significant Control of the Strait of Hormuz | CNN

“The battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of the Iran war. Over the past several months, both Iran and the United States have claimed the upper hand – and the competing rhetoric has caused considerable confusion and doubt. At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground—and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway.”

Pentagon Weighing Smaller U.S. Military Presence in Gulf Once Iran War Ends | Washington Post

“The Pentagon is evaluating its military footprint in the Middle East in an early sign of the Iran war’s potential to transform the U.S. presence in the region, according to eight people, including officials and others familiar with the matter. One of the key areas the Defense Department is assessing is whether to pull back troops from the Persian Gulf, where America’s large overseas military bases have been battered by months of Iranian strikes, two people familiar with the ongoing analysis said.”

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS

Iran Forces Detain Relatives of Child Killed in 2022 Protests | Iran International

“Iranian security forces detained three relatives of the family of Kian Pirfalak, a nine-year-old killed during the 2022 protests, after raiding a village in the southern city of Izeh on Sunday evening, informed sources told Iran International. . . . The three men were taken away violently, according to information obtained by Iran International. Jamshid Molaei was transferred to hospital hours later with a broken arm and multiple injuries before security forces removed him again and took him to an unknown location.”

Activist Iman Asghari Facing Deportation to Iran from Tbilisi | IranWire

“According to information obtained by IranWire, Iranian political activist Iman Asghari has been held in a Georgian Immigration Department detention facility since May 6, 2026, and faces the risk of forced deportation to Iran. A source close to Asghari’s family told IranWire that he fled Iran and sought refuge in Georgia after receiving threats over his political activities. According to the source, Asghari continued his activism in Georgia, helping organise protest rallies against the Islamic Republic in Tbilisi.”

Iran’s Shahid Beheshti University Expels Master’s Student Alireza Jafarzadeh | IranWire

“The Appeals Council of Shahid Beheshti University has upheld the expulsion verdict for Alireza Jafarzadeh, a master’s student in International Political Economy. The United Students Telegram channel published an image of the disciplinary council’s letter, reporting that Jafarzadeh has been permanently banned from continuing his studies on charges of ‘creating unrest and turmoil in the university environment.’ . . . Jafarzadeh previously faced judicial prosecution during the ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ protest movement. In 2022, he was sentenced to one year of discretionary imprisonment and a two-year ban from online activity on charges of ‘insulting the Supreme Leader.’ Jafarzadeh’s expulsion comes amid a new wave of disciplinary actions targeting university students.”

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS

Iran’s Working-Class Living Basket Doubles in Four Months | IranWire

“The minimum cost of living for a working-class family reached more than 90 million tomans at the end of July 2026, nearly four times the monthly wage of a married worker with one child. Based on these calculations, a worker’s total salary, including all benefits, covers living costs for only about eight days of the month.”

Ghalibaf Insists US Pressure Will Not Force Concessions from Iran | IranWire

“Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, declared that the United States cannot extract concessions outside the scope of any deal by increasing pressure on the Islamic Republic. . . . Writing on X (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday, August 18, Ghalibaf stated that American officials mistakenly believe escalating pressure will force Iran to yield concessions that were never part of a mutually contemplated agreement. Directly referencing U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Ghalibaf added: ‘Bessent and Hegseth are not up to this task and lack the stature to pull it off.’ Addressing the U.S. administration, the Iranian Parliament Speaker continued: ‘Stop waiting for this clownish group to pull a rabbit out of their hat, and clean up the mess you yourselves have created.’”

CYBER WARFARE

DOJ Unseals New Charges Against 17 Hackers in Iran-Backed Campaign | Reuters

“The U.S. Department of Justice on Tuesday unsealed new and updated charges against 17 individuals working with an Iranian ​company that it alleges carried out hacks and data theft ‌against U.S. universities, companies and government agencies. The DOJ said in a statement, opens new tab that the individuals were working with the Mabna Institute, which carried out hacking campaigns on ​behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian ​government and university clients.”

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

Hardline Faction Reemerges in Iran and Calls for an ‘Islamic Government’ | Alhurra

“The Ansar Hezbollah organization, a hardline Iranian paramilitary group, has reemerged on the streets of Iran after years of limited public activity, underscoring deepening divisions in the country over how to handle the ongoing conflict with the United States. Iranian activists say members of Ansar Hezbollah, which first emerged prominently in the 1980s through attacks on universities, newspapers and demonstrations, are taking part in security operations and preparing for actions aimed at pressuring President Masoud Pezeshkian and his government. Within the group, which the U.S. has placed under sanctions for human rights abuses, calls are growing to oust the Islamic Republic and replace it with an ‘Islamic government’ with reduced elected institutions.”

Iran Basij Chief Calls for Coordination of Battlefield, Media and Diplomacy | Iran International

“Coordination among the media, the street, the battlefield and diplomacy is essential to keep wartime narratives and negotiations aligned with Iran’s objectives, Basij Organization Chief Hossein Taeb said on Wednesday.”

CONGRESS & IRAN

Democrats’ Gripes with Iran War Grow as Conflict Nears Six Months | Roll Call

“Democrats’ litany of grievances with the Iran war is growing as scandals have mounted in recent weeks and the war drags on toward the six-month mark. Reports of unbearable living conditions aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, President Donald Trump’s threat to bomb U.S. ally Oman if it interferes with U.S. plans in the Strait of Hormuz and the uneventful passage of a deadline originally envisioned to be the cutoff to end the war have Democrats amplifying their criticisms of the conflict in recent days, even amid the August recess doldrums.”

GULF STATES & IRAN

Trump Threatened to Bomb Oman Because He’s Unhappy with Country’s Deal with Iran, Officials Say | Associated Press

“U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman because he is unhappy the country is close to a deal with Iran to manage ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, two regional officials said on Tuesday, a day after Trump leveled the threat. The officials said the Trump administration has told Oman it is opposed to parts of the yet-to-be-announced deal, including the joint Iranian and Omani management of the exit route out of the passage that’s critical to global supplies of oil and natural gas. . . . The U.S. believes Oman has not been tough enough in its negotiations with Iran and is unhappy with Oman’s agreement to collect voluntary fees from vessels, even if the charges are related to security and maritime environmental protection, according to the officials . . .”

EUROPE & IRAN

France to Expel Two Iranian Diplomats in Coming Days, Foreign Minister Says | Reuters

“France will expel two Iranian diplomats in ‌the coming days in response to an incident in July involving two staff of the French embassy in Tehran. . . . Last month, the French ministry said the two French embassy staff had been detained and physically intimidated by Iranian security services ​in Tehran. . . . [The French foreign minister’s] comments came one ‌day ⁠after the Iranian ministry said two French embassy employees, who were involved in July in a diplomatic dispute in Tehran, would not be allowed to return ​to Iran.”

French Source Rejects Iran Espionage Allegations Against Diplomats | Iran International

“Allegations by Iran’s Intelligence Ministry that two French diplomats briefly detained in Tehran last month were involved in espionage are ‘completely false,’ a French diplomatic source told Iran International. The source said the Islamic Republic was seeking to justify its ‘violent and unacceptable methods’ by making baseless espionage accusations, adding that the Iranian people were the first victims of such methods.”

SOUTH KOREA & IRAN

South Korea Minister Says Trump Appears to Be Pressuring Seoul over Iran, Investment | Reuters

“South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said on Wednesday that ​U.S. President Donald Trump’s order to curb joint military ‌drills appeared aimed in part at pressuring Seoul to support U.S. efforts in the Iran war, alongside other unresolved issues such as investment.”