TOP STORIES
EU Is Set To Impose Iran Sanctions For Missile Attacks On Israel | Bloomberg
EU foreign and defense ministers meet in Luxembourg on Monday, They’re seeking to reach a political accord on Iran measures. European Union foreign and defense ministers are poised to reach a political agreement on Monday to impose new sanctions on Iran over its attack on Israel. The restrictive measures further expand the sanctions that the EU already imposed on Tehran for supplying Russia with drones to also include missiles and drones that Iran has provided its proxies in the Middle East. The sanctions may not be formally adopted until later in the week to allow for the technical work to be completed.
Israel and Iran on Friday both played down an apparent Israeli airstrike near a major air base and nuclear site in central Iran, signaling the two bitter enemies are ready to prevent their latest eruption of violence from escalating into a full-blown regional war. But the indecisive outcome of weeks of tensions — which included an alleged Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals, an unprecedented Iranian missile barrage on Israel and the apparent Israeli strike early Friday in the heart of Iran — did little to resolve the deeper grievances between the foes and left the door open to further fighting. “It appears we’re closer than ever to a broad regional war, despite the fact that the international community will most likely make a great effort to de-escalate tensions,” wrote Amos Harel, the military-affairs commentator for the Israeli daily Haaretz. Israel has long considered Iran to be its greatest enemy — citing the Islamic Republic’s calls for Israel’s destruction, its controversial nuclear program and its support for hostile proxies across the Middle East.
Iranian Commander Announces New Morality Enforcement Body | Radio Free Europe
The commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) troops in the Iranian capital on April 21 announced the creation of a new enforcement body to uphold the country's strict dress code for women. IRGC Tehran chief Hassan Hassanzadeh said members of the squad's members have been trained to enforce the hijab "in a more serious manner" at public locations. The announcement follows reports that authorities have intensified morality sweeps in recent days, with shared images showing the uniformed officers descending on women as part of an operation officials said was codenamed Nour, or Light in Persian. In a related message imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi said women's narratives of oppression will be heard and will "disgrace" the "misogynist" government. "Today, the authoritarian theocracy has drawn a full-fledged war against all women on all streets of the country, not out of a position of power but out of desperation," Mohammadi said from Tehran's Evin prison, according to an audio message posted on April 21 on an Instagram page attributed to her.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Airstrike Against Iraqi Group Aims To Stop Iran's Proxies | Iran International
…In a post on X, Jason Brodsky, Policy Director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), attributed the overnight strikes in Iraq to Israel. “On April 17, Iraq’s national security advisor Qasim Al-Araji, a member of IRGC terrorists-backed Badr Organization, said Iran’s regime’s attack on Israel on April 13 created ‘a new deterrent policy’ in the region. And this is Israel’s response to him tonight in Iraq,” Brodsky pointed out. Since October 7, Iran-backed forces in Iraq have been threatening to target Israel. Their anti-Israel rhetoric intensified after the April 1 attack in Damascus. Following the incident, the Iranian proxies in Iraq claimed two drone attacks on Israeli territory, one in Haifa and another in Golan Heights.
…“The issue here is that a U.S. federal agency is apparently collaborating with a widely-sanctioned university which is one of the worst actors in Iran’s academic space,” Daniel Roth, the director of research for United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Regardless of whether this explicitly has been used to advance Iran’s nuclear centrifuges is beside the point … This shouldn’t have happened in the first place. And we’re not talking about a collaboration on James Joyce or English literature. It’s about science and technology, and obviously those often have dual uses.”
How Israel Launched A ‘Birthday Surprise’ Attack Against Iran’s Nuclear Defences | The Telegraph
…“Israel has a lot of experience operating in Iran,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director of the United Against Nuclear Iran, an advocacy group. “Israel has a long history of mounting covert operations inside the Islamic Republic. So that experience has informed what it did overnight in the Islamic Republic.” One of the targets appeared to have been the Shekari 8 Air Base in Isfahan, a base for Iran’s regular army, rather than one used by its feared Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). “I think that they may have viewed the Islamic Republic as less likely to retaliate if they attacked an army base versus an IRGC base,” said Mr Brodsky.
The United States and its allies can learn something from the way Israel has dealt with Iran. After Iran launched an unprecedented assault on the Jewish state from its own territory on April 13 following an Israeli strike on senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders in Syria, Israel hit back with an attack on an airbase on Iranian territory on April 19. Throughout the week, Western policymakers were handwringing and hyperventilating over Israel’s promised retaliation and how it could trigger an uncontrollable escalatory spiral that would draw in the US. Iranian officials joined in, promising immediate, punishing reprisals. But judging from the muted reaction so far in Iran, rather than doubling down, it is backing down. Israel sent a message to Tehran that it would not be willing to sit idly by and “take the win”, as President Joe Biden advised, after successfully thwarting the Iranian Operation True Promise on April 13.
…According to an Israeli official source, the strike had been intended to signal to Iran that Israel has the ability to reach Iran with its weapons. ‘’I see it as the bigger and longer campaign targeting military sites in Iran and also the start of a psychological warfare operation by Israel to reach the paranoia of the ayatollahs and the IRGC, making them guess when the next strike is going to come,’’ Iran expert Kasra Aarabi, told European Jewish Press. A director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) in London, Aarabi specializes in Iranian military and security affairs and Shi’a extremism. He is also a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington ‘’It is only the first step. From the Iranian calculus, they will be trying to flip the narrative for propaganda purposes. They know that this is just the beginning. Their line will be ‘We are showing restraint, we are a ‘rational’ actor’’ despite the fact that they launched an unprecedented, illogical, irrational, reckless strike last week; They will try to have media and policymakers in Europe pick that narrative. You also start seeing their lobby network pushing this narrative,’’ he added in a phone conversation.
Today, there have been reports of explosions in Isfahan, in central Iran, in what is presumed to be a strike by Israel. The world had been waiting for Israel’s promised retaliation after Iran launched an unprecedented attack at Israel directly from its own territory, using 300 missiles and drones. Despite the hysterical commentary that Israel is trying to drag the United States and its allies into war, its strikes in Iran appear to have been carefully calibrated to avoid escalation. After all, Israel has plenty of experience operating in Iran, and particularly Isfahan.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Israeli President Herzog Warns Of Iran Developing Nuclear Weapons | DPA International
Israeli President Isaac Herzog has warned against the development of nuclear weapons by Iran. In an interview with German mass-circulation Bild newspaper and other media of the Axel Springer publishing group in his official residence in Jerusalem, Herzog said: "Clearly the greatest threat to stability in the world is Iran's desire for the bomb." In view of this danger, he appealed to the free world to act together and "to fight if necessary." He warned against a policy of appeasement towards Iran. Without referring to the attack on military targets in Iran on Friday, which was attributed to Israel, Herzog assured that his country was acting "responsibly" and striving for peace and stability. In the "chess game of world politics," it is often a matter of "acting responsibly and with restraint." "This is what we have done throughout the crisis," Herzog said.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Claims Nuclear Weapons Have ‘No Place’ In Its Nuclear Doctrine | Reuters
Nuclear weapons have no place in Iran's nuclear doctrine, the country's foreign ministry said on Monday, days after a Revolutionary Guards commander warned that Tehran might change its nuclear policy if pressured by Israeli threats. "Iran has repeatedly said its nuclear programme only serves peaceful purposes. Nuclear weapons have no place in our nuclear doctrine," ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said during a press conference in Tehran. Following a spike in tensions with Israel, the Guards commander in charge of nuclear security Ahmad Haghtalab said last week that Israeli threats could push Tehran to "review its nuclear doctrine and deviate from its previous considerations."
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
US Unlikely To Enforce Iran Sanctions In Election Year: Analyst | Bloomberg
The US is unlikely to strongly enforce sanctions on Iran and risk sending oil prices higher in an election year, consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. said, even after the House set new restrictions in motion against the country’s energy sector. Legislation passed over the weekend seeks to broaden sanctions against Iran to include foreign ports, vessels and refineries that knowingly process or ship Iranian crude in violation of existing US rules.
Food Prices Soar In Iran Amid Rial Devaluation And Israel Tensions | Iran International
Iran is grappling with soaring food prices amidst economic turmoil and the devaluation of the rial compounded by Iran-Israel tensions. According to reports from Iran's state-run Khorasan newspaper, the cost of essential food items has skyrocketed since the beginning of the Iranian New Year in March 2024, coinciding with the month of Ramadan. Beans have seen a staggering 30% increase in price, while red meat prices have surged by 25%. Additionally, summer foods have seen a remarkable 50% hike, with rice and several other items following suit with increases ranging from 10% to 15%. Earlier in April, in an interview with so-called reformist news site Entekhab, Reza Kangari, the head of the Tehran Provincial Union of Food Banks, also highlighted the recent significant rise in food prices. Kangari stated that “some food items have seen a 30% rise" and attributed the rise to the depreciation of the rial, supply shortages, and subsequent price gouging.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
Europe Needs To ‘Wake Up’ And Face The Iran Threat, Says Israel’s President | POLITICO
European leaders "don't get" the danger posed by Iran in the Middle East and beyond, Israel's President Isaac Herzog said in an interview on Sunday. The Iranian government is providing thousands of drones for use by Russia in its war on Ukraine, and at the same time Tehran is pushing ahead with its nuclear weapons program, Herzog said, describing Iran as an "empire of evil." "I think Europe has to wake up and urgently, because they don't get it," Herzog said in an interview with Axel Springer media outlets. POLITICO is owned by Axel Springer. As Israel faces criticism from its allies over the scale of its assault on Gaza, which has left much of the enclave in ruins amid preparations for an Israeli assault on Rafah, Herzog was clear that Tehran is the real enemy. In response to Iranian drone and missile attacks on Israel last weekend, the Israeli government launched a strike on Iran on Friday. "If you don't wake up and be as strong as possible and fight this empire of evil with the coalition that you have in NATO, Europe may pay the price in the future," said Herzog.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Biden, US Officials Were Surprised By Scale Of Iranian Attack On Israel – Report | Times Of Israel
US President Joe Biden and security officials watched with “mounting alarm” as the scale of Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel became clear last weekend, according to a Sunday report. “This was on the high end, I think, of what we were anticipating,” a senior official was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying of the moments the scope of the Iranian barrage became clear. An unnamed official told the newspaper that it was “unclear until all was said and done” whether Israel’s missile defenses and the coalition of countries involved in shooting down projectiles had succeeded. The report said that as it became evident in the run-up to the attack by Iran that something was going to happen, a team of US military personnel was secretly sent to Tel Aviv to work at “a missile defense operations center.” US officials were confident they could help counter around 50 ballistic missiles, and became deeply concerned when it became clear that over 100 had been fired by Iran, according to the report.
Israeli Weapon Damaged Iranian Air Defenses Without Being Detected, Officials Say | New York Times
The strike, two Western officials said, was calculated to deliver a message to Iran that Israel could bypass Iran’s defense systems undetected and paralyze them… An Israeli weapon deployed in a retaliatory strike against Iran on Friday damaged a defense system responsible for detecting and destroying aerial threats near Nantaz, a central Iranian city critical to the country’s secret nuclear weapons program, according to two Western officials and two Iranian officials. The strike, the Western officials said, was calculated to deliver a message to Iran that Israel could bypass Iran’s defense systems undetected and paralyze them, using a fraction of the fire power Iran deployed last week when it launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel. That attack, intercepted by Israel and its allies, caused minimal damage.
Israel Hit Iran With A Half-Ton Supersonic 'Rampage' Missile, Report Says | Business Insider
Israel used a long-range, supersonic missile in its strike on Iran earlier this week, Israeli broadcaster Kan reported, per The Times of Israel. US officials said Israel carried out a missile strike on a military base near the city of Isfahan, Iran, on Friday. Israel has not confirmed the reports, while Iran has sought to downplay the incident, only referencing small drones used in the attack, which its foreign minister said were "like toys our children play with." While it remains unclear what weapons were used in the strike, Kan reported that Israel used a "Rampage" air-to-surface missile, claiming it was identified in photos and that damage caused by the attack was consistent with a Rampage strike, per The Times of Israel.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Flash Floods In Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan Leave Region In Despair | Iran International
Recent floods have devastated the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, causing massive infrastructural damage leaving hundreds of thousands of residents without critical supplies. According to Moeineddin Saeedi, the lawmaker representing Chabahar in the Iranian parliament, the floods have "broken the back of the people," with the death toll rising and critical damage to the region's infrastructure, including roads, electricity, and water systems. He said "transit and rural roads in some districts have been destroyed up to 70 percent, and water has entered many homes." On the ground, activists have reported a higher toll than the government is currently reporting, with at least 18 deaths due to the flash floods, the government announcing around 10. The situation is worsening as Hossein Zafari, spokesperson for the Crisis Management Organization, disclosed that approximately 300 villages in the south are now cut off, with significant disruptions to their water supply and risk of displacement on the rise.
Who Pulls The Strings Of Power In Iran? | Financial Times
Intricate, multi-layered and opaque, the power structure of Iran’s regime can be a challenge for insiders to understand, let alone the world outside. While the country of almost 90mn appears to be under the strict control of a single cleric, the Islamic Republic’s ruling elite has in fact entered a period of significant change. As factions prepare for the battle to succeed the ageing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the regime’s future is increasingly being shaped by its armed forces and hardliners. The political flux has become a crucial factor in Middle East security, as Iran’s decades-long enmity with Israel reached dangerous new heights in recent weeks. As the crisis unfolds, one crucial question for the region is: who decides for Iran? Khamenei is unequivocally the top decision maker for all big domestic and foreign policy. The 85-year-old belligerently rejects what he perceives as the tyrannical west, notably the US and Israel.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
Iran’s Supreme Leader Tacitly Acknowledges Tehran Hit Little In Its Attack On Israel | NBC News
Iran’s supreme leader on Sunday dismissed any discussion of whether Tehran’s unprecedented drone-and-missile attack on Israel hit anything there, a tacit acknowledgment that despite launching a major assault, few projectiles actually made it through to their targets. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s comments before senior military leaders didn’t touch on the apparent Israeli retaliatory strike on Friday on the central city of Isfahan, even though air defenses opened fire and Iran grounded commercial flights across much of the country. Analysts believe both Iran and Israel, regional archrivals locked in a shadow war for years, are trying to dial back tensions following a series of escalatory attacks between them as the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip rages on and inflames the wider region. Khamenei, 85, made the comments in a meeting attended by the top ranks of Iran’s regular military, police and paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, a powerful force within its Shiite theocracy.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Kata'ib Hezbollah Denies Saying Attacks On US Forces Have Resumed | Sky News
Iraqi armed faction Kata'ib Hezbollah has denied saying it had resumed attacks on US forces. The group's denial comes hours after another statement was circulated on Telegram channels thought to be affiliated with them. That statement declared attacks had resumed three months after they were suspended - but the group now says that is "fabricated news". Earlier, sources had told the Reuters news agency at least five rockets were launched from the Iraqi town of Zummar towards a US military base in northeastern Syria. A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, referred to it as a "failed rocket attack". Two security sources and a senior army officer in Iraq said a small truck with a rocket launcher fixed on the back had been parked in Zummar, which is on the border with Syria. Kata'ib Hezbollah, an Iraq-based militant group, is thought to have ties to Iran.
Iran's Air Defense Purchase From Russia Backfires | Newsweek
An Israeli attack on Iran damaged a Russian-made S-300 air defense system, according to a new report, marking a possible embarrassing performance for the Moscow-designed system provided to a crucial Kremlin ally. Friday's attack on Iran damaged or destroyed an S-300 radar designed to track targets, a "crucial" part of the air defense system, The New York Times reported, citing Western and Iranian officials and satellite imagery analysis. Israel launched an attack on Iran early on Friday, with explosions reported over the central Iranian city of Isfahan, south of Tehran. Air defenses fired at a "suspicious object" near the city at around 4 a.m. local time, Iranian state media reported. A spokesperson for Iran's space agency, Hossein Dalirian, said Iran intercepted three quadcopter drones. Several reports from anonymous Western and Iranian officials have suggested Israeli warplanes fired at least one missile at Iran.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iran President To Visit Pakistan From Monday To Wednesday, Pakistan Says | Reuters
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will make an official visit to Pakistan this week, Islamabad said on Sunday, as the two Muslim neighbours seek to mend ties after tit-for-tat missile strikes in January/ The visit, which Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said would take place from Monday to Wednesday, had been in doubt as Middle East tensions rose after Iran launched an unprecedented attack on Israel a week ago and central Iran received what sources said was an Israeli attack on Friday. Pakistan has signalled since January that Raisi would visit, and the prime minister said last week the visit would take place "very soon". Tehran has played down Friday's apparent Israeli attack and indicated it had no plans for retaliation, a response that appeared gauged towards keeping the Israel-Gaza war from expanding to a regionwide conflict.