TOP STORIES
Diplomacy or Defiance: Iran’s Rulers Face Existential Choice After US-Israeli Strikes | Reuters
Three Iranian insiders told Reuters the [Iranian] political establishment now views negotiations with the U.S.—aimed at resolving a decades-long dispute over its nuclear ambitions—as the only way to avoid further escalation and existential peril. . . . [O]ne political insider . . . said the leadership now leaned towards talks as they’ve seen the cost of military confrontation.
China, Russia Help Iran Challenge West | Newsweek
Iran is rallying support from Russia and China to mitigate potential new sanctions amid growing Western pressure to curb its enrichment program and reach a nuclear deal soon. China and Russia are helping Iran challenge the E3 in the United Nations Security Council over the group's claimed right to enforce the snapback mechanism, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iran's state TV IRIB. "If snapback occurs, it is certainly harmful, and we have no doubt we will try until the last moment to prevent it," Araghchi said, adding that Iran had been consulting with its two allies for years over the JCPOA's legal complexities.
Iran Looks to China to Rebuild Its Missile Capabilities, Israelis Concerned | Yedioth Ahronoth
Iran is rebuilding its defensive capabilities after the 12-day war with Israel and is likely focusing on new aerial defense systems. Iran may be eyeing advanced Russian defensive systems, but thus far, it has been encountering a less-than-enthusiastic response from Moscow after the embarrassing defeat of the Iranian regime. . . . Western intelligence agencies, mostly those in Europe, have observed Iranian and Chinese cooperation in that regard. China supplied Iran with some equipment after the October 2024 altercation with Israel, but is now actually rebuilding the Iranian capabilities.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The Death of an Empire? A Conversation with Tom Kaplan | World According to Masih Podcast
[Tom Kaplan:] When he was creating United Against Nuclear Iran, Mark Wallace sent a letter to Caterpillar and said, "Your cranes are being used to hang Iranians. Stop it." They ignored him. So he took over the wall space of the building across from Caterpillar and put up a mural of an Iranian hanging from a crane. Caterpillar stopped doing business with Iran immediately.
A senior Iranian intelligence official and a network of operatives have been identified as key figures in a cyber group that targeted London-based broadcaster Iran International and its staff, according to information obtained by the channel. . . . US-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) called on Washington and its European allies to confront Iran’s transnational repression, which it says has escalated since the start of a 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June.
Nearly 70% of Iran Oil Tankers Faked Travel Routes | Nikkei Asia
Nearly 70% of Iranian oil tankers have made attempts to fake their travel routes, an analysis by Nikkei shows, with many of them likely transporting crude to China to bring in precious foreign currency to the sanctioned Middle Eastern country. . . . Iran's exports of crude oil grew roughly 70% between 2019 and 2024, according to U.S. nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran, with around 90% bound for China. UANI's view is that Iran has grown increasingly reliant on China buying crude oil since the U.S. imposed sanctions in 2018. But United Nations data shows China's imports of Iranian crude plunging after the sanctions, with none at all appearing since 2023. Its imports of Malaysian oil have risen instead, accounting for 13% of the total in the first half of this year, according to Chinese customs data -- not far behind Russia at 17% and Saudi Arabia at 15%. The gap between the UANI and U.N. numbers signals attempts to conceal the oil's Iranian origin.
UANI Policy Director Jason M. Brodsky Discusses Iran | Visegrad 24
Jason M. Brodsky joins an X space held by Visegrad 24 to discuss the weakening regional position of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran Sends New Signal to Trump About Nuclear Talks | Newsweek
Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani, said Tehran would "respond positively" to talks with the United States if Washington rules out further military intervention. Speaking to Lebanon's Al-Mayadeen network late on Thursday, Larijani outlined conditions for engagement as European powers pressed Tehran to resume nuclear talks before the end of August or face sanctions.
SANCTIONS, SHIPPING, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran Invites ‘Snap-Back’ Sanctions | Wall Street Journal
The 12-day Iran war has changed the Middle East, and even Europe is now willing to raise the pressure on the ruling mullahs in Tehran. In dragging its feet on nuclear inspections and material, Iran is inviting “snap-back” sanctions. France, the U.K. and Germany wrote Wednesday to inform the United Nations of their readiness to snap back the international sanctions on Iran that were lifted by Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal. They’ll do it by the end of the month, they say, unless Iran shows the bare minimum of interest in diplomacy. Since July the Europeans have offered an extension if Tehran resumes negotiations with the U.S. and cooperation with U.N. inspectors. Iran hasn’t bothered to reply. It has also snubbed U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s requests for negotiations and says repeatedly that it won’t give up its “right” to enrich uranium domestically—which is unnecessary for civilian energy but essential for retaining a path to a bomb. “Our enrichment is so dear to us,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Fox News.
TRANSNATIONAL REPRESSION
US Urges Iran to Immediately Stop Targeting Dissident Journalists | Iran International
The US State Department on Thursday called on Iran to stop its ongoing assaults on journalists and independent media, including threats targeting reporters and their families across the world. "We call on Iran to immediately cease these threatening actions and to respect the fundamental right to freedom of expression," the State Department said in a post in Persian on X. “The United States condemns the Iranian regime’s relentless attacks on journalists and the free press, including threats against reporters and their families in the United States and Europe,” the department added.
PROTESTS AND HUMAN RIGHTS
Nobel Laureate Says She’s Receiving Death Threats from Iran’s Intel Agents | Iran International
Iranian human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi says she is receiving death threats that are openly coming from Iran’s intelligence agents. . . . Mohammadi, who is currently on medical furlough from Tehran’s Evin Prison, has refused two official orders to return and said she would not go back voluntarily. . . . describing her stance as civil disobedience. Mohammadi is serving a combined 13-year and 9-month sentence on charges including “spreading propaganda” against the Islamic Republic. While temporarily released, she has continued to speak out in interviews and online events with human rights groups.
More than 20 members of Iran’s Baha’i minority in the central city of Isfahan have had their homes, assets and vehicles confiscated in recent weeks, in some cases being informed only by text message, the Baha’i International Community (BIC) said on Wednesday. The Geneva-based group said the seizures were carried out under Article 49 of Iran’s constitution, which allows authorities to confiscate wealth obtained through illegal means. The BIC accused authorities of misusing the law “without any evidence, legal process, or transparency” to target citizens solely for their religious beliefs.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
The Yemeni National Resistance, the main military faction fighting against the Houthis, seized 750 tons of weapons smuggled to the terror group by Iran, including chemical weapons, Sky News Arabia reported on Monday. The operation revealed that both Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah were involved in the weapons smuggling, using shipping routes from Africa and Asia towards the Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen.
Iran hacked a phone belonging to former [Israeli] justice minister Ayelet Shaked during the Islamic Republic’s 12-day war in June, Hebrew media outlets report, as part of Tehran’s ongoing effort to spy on and hack current and former Israeli officials. Iran tried several times to hack the former Yamina party leader’s phone, and succeeded in getting her to click a link that allowed access to her phone, Channel 12 news reports, without citing a source. The Shin Bet informed her of the hack about two weeks later.
CYBERSECURITY MATTERS
Iran hacked a phone belonging to former justice minister Ayelet Shaked during the Islamic Republic’s 12-day war in June, Hebrew media outlets report, as part of Tehran’s ongoing effort to spy on and hack current and former Israeli officials. Iran tried several times to hack the former Yamina party leader’s phone, and succeeded in getting her to click a link that allowed access to her phone, Channel 12 news reports, without citing a source. The Shin Bet informed her of the hack about two weeks later.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran’s Ex-President Rouhani Criticizes Tehran’s Middle East Strategy | Deutsche Presse Agentur
Former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani criticized his government's Middle East strategy on Thursday in comments published by the news website Entekhab. “If sympathy for Muslims and the region ends in disaster for the Iranian people, then that is wrong and not right,” he was quoted as saying. The 76-year-old was referring to the Islamic Republic’s political and military course in the Middle East. . . . Rouhani explained that other Muslims in the region must be helped. However, he added that this also had limits. “We must think first and foremost of our own people,” the politician was further quoted as saying.
Former President Joins Growing Push for Overhaul of Iran’s Rule | Iran International
Pressure is building inside Iran’s political establishment for a fundamental change of course, with former president Hassan Rouhani joining a growing chorus warning that continued rigidity could lead to paralysis or trigger renewed unrest. . . . “There is no way to save the country except for all of us to become servants of the people—to recognize that sovereignty belongs to the people,” moderate outlet Entekhab quoted Rouhani as saying on Thursday. “The Iranian nation owns Iran.” Rouhani also urged an overhaul of media regulations to allow private broadcasters alongside the state’s. “We should have 10, 20, 30 channels that are private, owned by the people,” he said. “If we want the people to be with us, this is the way.” . . . “If we can improve relations with Europe, our neighbors, and both East and West—even reduce tensions with the United States—and it serves our interests, then why not?” he said. “Not only is there nothing wrong with it, it is our duty and obligation.”
RUSSIA, UKRAINE, & IRAN
Ukraine Strikes Russian Port Used for Iranian Arms Shipments, Military Says | Kyiv Independent
Ukraine's Special Operations Forces on Aug. 14 struck the Russian port of Olya in Astrakhan Oblast, a region in southern Russia at the Caspian Sea coast, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported. The attack targeted what Kyiv says is a key logistics hub for Iranian-made military supplies bound for Russia. Iran has been a key ally to Moscow and provided the country with ballistic missiles and thousands of Shahed kamikaze drones for its war against Ukraine.
To Handle Russia and Iran, the U.S. Must Embrace a New Guiding Principle | Forbes
In these confused times, we need a new X. We’re not talking about Elon Musk’s social networking service, formerly called Twitter, but rather the author of the profoundly consequential article published in 1947 in Foreign Affairs magazine, who laid out the strategy for dealing with the Soviet Union after WWII. The strategy came to be summed up in one word: “containment.”
ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN, & IRAN
A senior Armenian diplomat has sought to calm Iranian concerns over growing U.S. involvement in the South Caucasus, emphasizing that a new connectivity project involving the United States will not entail any American security presence near Iran’s borders. . . . [He] reaffirmed Armenia’s commitment to maintaining the free and uninterrupted operation of its border with Iran.
In exclusive Fox News Digital interviews, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev both praised President Donald Trump and his envoy for their role in brokering the framework agreement. They emphasized that the deal, which promised increased regional economic integration and political cooperation, is not directed at any third party—and may actually provide strategic advantages to Moscow and Tehran. “This is not a zero-sum game,” Pashinyan said. The agreement “contains quite tangible benefits for Iran and for Russia as well. "Iran would have access through railway from the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea and Russia and Iran will have opportunity to have a railway connection between the two countries.”
IRAQ & IRAN
Iraqi Police Arrest Iranian Pilgrims for Anti-Israeli Chants at Shia Shrine | IranWire
Iraqi police arrested dozens of Iranian pilgrims for chanting anti-Israeli slogans at the shrine of Imam Hussein, the third Shia imam, during religious ceremonies marking Arbaeen. . . . Officials from the Arbaeen headquarters, the organization responsible for coordinating services for Iranian pilgrims during the ceremonies, said Iraqi security forces released the detained individuals after obtaining pledges from them not to repeat such actions.
Defying expectations, Iran-backed Iraqi militia groups refrained from carrying out attacks on US military facilities inside Iraq after Israel’s 13 June strikes on Iran. Yet, in the weeks following the war, a series of militia drone and rocket attacks targeted vital infrastructure and oil facilities in central and northern Iraq. Why did Iraq’s Iran-aligned paramilitary groups abstain from joining Tehran’s counter-attack on US military bases, despite earlier pledges to retaliate if Washington intervened during the Israel–Iran war, and yet unleashed violence across the country only a month later? We argue that Iran-backed Iraqi militias chose to remain uninvolved in the Iran–Israel war because their aims are more strategic: to simultaneously redefine Iranian influence within the Iraqi state and maximise their own interests.
SYRIA & IRAN
Iran Does Not Rule Out Normalization of Ties with Syria, Larijani Says | Iran International
Iran’s top security official said on Thursday Tehran was open to normalizing its relations with Syria's new government, shortly after reports that Damascus had barred his plane from using the Syrian airspace when flying to Beirut. . . . Ali Larijani also said the Americans cannot cut off Iran’s relations with Arab countries. “Yes, perhaps these relations will not reach their peak, but we can benefit from them.”
HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON, & IRAN
Hezbollah Warns Lebanon 'Will Have No Life' If State Moves Against It | Reuters
Hezbollah raised the spectre of civil war on Friday with a warning there would be "no life" in Lebanon if the government sought to confront or eliminate the Iran-backed group. The government wants to control arms in line with a U.S.-backed plan following Israel's military campaign against Hezbollah which was founded four decades ago with the backing of Tehran's Revolutionary Guards.
Lebanon’s Wake-Up Call: Iranian Officials Meet a Harsh New Reality | Yedioth Ahronoth
Lebanon’s new leadership delivered an unusually blunt message to a senior Iranian official visiting Beirut on Wednesday: the era of foreign interference is over. The statements came as Lebanon pushes ahead with an unprecedented plan to dismantle Hezbollah’s arsenal, an effort backed by the United States and fiercely opposed by the Iran-aligned Shiite group and its ally, the Amal movement.
EGYPT & IRAN
Egypt Mediates Talks Between Iran, IAEA in Bid for ‘Regional Stability’ | Jerusalem Post
Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) held talks brokered by Egypt on Tuesday. . . . The Egyptian foreign minister and [IAEA Director General Rafael] Grossi discussed developments in the Iranian nuclear issue and brainstormed ways to generate collaboration between Tehran and the IAEA.
MISCELLANEOUS
Larijani’s Middle East Tour Reveals Iran’s Struggle to Maintain Regional Influence | IranWire
“The resistance front has roots among regional peoples, and each part of it is a national asset for its own country,” [Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali] Larijani told reporters in Baghdad, attempting to frame Iran’s proxies as homegrown movements rather than Tehran’s tools. But critics see something different in his tour. They view it as a desperate attempt by Iran to reassert control over wavering allies and demonstrate that Tehran remains a major power broker in the region’s shifting dynamics.