TOP STORIES
An Emerging Deal Could Cement Iran’s Control of Strait of Hormuz | New York Times
“Iran and Oman are closing in on an agreement to reopen shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian and American officials, but if the accord goes into effect it could come at a high price—ratifying Tehran’s control over what, before the war, was an open, international waterway. As described by officials familiar with the emerging accord, vessels heading into the Persian Gulf will transit a channel controlled by Iran, and close to its coast. Ships leaving the Gulf will travel on a channel near Oman. Iranian officials say that while there will be no tolls charged the agreement includes a ‘service fee’ to cover the environmental impact of the shipping, security for the cargo ships and tankers, and staffing. Revenues would be divided equally between Iran and Oman, two Iranian officials said. But a U.S. official familiar with the negotiations said on Monday that the Iranian account was ‘not accurate,’ and said that any ‘temporary’ routes established through the strait would not involve approvals or permissions by Iran, and would involve no tolls.”
Trump Says New Talks Are Iran’s ‘Last Chance’ to Make Deal Before ‘Decapitation’ | France 24
“US President Donald Trump said Monday that negotiations with Iran were ongoing despite Tehran’s denials and the Islamic Republic was facing a ‘last chance before decapitation.’”
“President Donald Trump branded the Iranian regime ‘unbelievably duplicitous,’ saying Iranian officials asked for talks on ending the war only to announce that no discussions would be held.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
How Iran Is Widening Its Pressure Campaign to Force US Concessions | Reuters
“[UANI Senior Advisor] Michael Singh, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said Tehran believes it still holds the initiative, partly because the Trump administration appears uncertain how far it is willing to go militarily. ‘The Iranians are trying to press their advantage,’ he added. ‘They’re interested in establishing sovereignty over the strait and exercising selective control over the waterway.’ . . . ‘If there are going to be negotiations, they will define the terms,’ said [UANI Senior Advisor] Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former advisor on Iran at the U.S. State Department. ‘Both sides are matching escalation with escalation.’”
DIPLOMACY
Iran Rejects US Proposal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz - Al Mayadeen | Iran International
“Iran rejected the latest US proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the war ends, the pro-Hezbollah Al Mayadeen network reported Monday, citing an Iranian source. The source said Washington had offered Tehran a concession related to the closure of the strait’s southern route.”
Iran Demands Inbound Control of Hormuz and Outbound Oversight, Source Says | Reuters
“Iran wants control over inbound shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and visibility over outbound traffic, with the ability to intervene if necessary, under a temporary plan being discussed with Oman to reopen the strategic waterway, a senior Iranian source told Reuters on Tuesday. The source, who is involved in the talks, said this is ‘the general idea currently being discussed,’ and specified that the outbound lane would follow a route between Iran and Oman, with exit clearance granted through Oman after notifying Iran.
Iran Talks to Proceed in Two Phases, Trump Says | Iran International
“US President Donald Trump said Monday that talks with Iran would proceed in two phases and described the negotiations as Tehran’s ‘last chance’ to sign an agreement. He said the first phase would focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with the goal of having it ‘completely open’ by Tuesday. ‘The second phase will be the denuclearization,’ Trump said, adding that Iran ‘cannot have a nuclear weapon.’”
MILITARY MATTERS & SHIPPING
“The U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar with the data, raising concerns about the military’s readiness for future conflicts.”
Iran Warns US Warships over Altering Routes in the Strait of Hormuz | Euronews
“Iran announced that it would target any US warship that may try to impose a different route than the one that Tehran has allowed for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, Mohsen Rezaei, a senior advisor to Iran's supreme leader, said Monday. . . . Rezaei also warned of targeting US ships and bases if the country continued the naval blockade on Iran.”
“A British maritime monitoring agency said a cargo ship reported being hit by a projectile overnight off the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States and Iran made opposing claims about whether they were holding talks.”
AI Data Centers Have Become Sitting Ducks in the Iran War | CNN
“Iran has aimed significant firepower at its neighbors’ refineries, oil exports and tourist attractions, inflicting economic havoc on the Gulf states and the countries that do business with them. Now data centers, which power the technology most crucial to the global economy’s future, are becoming targets. Iran has bombarded several of its neighbors’ data centers, and the United States responded by attacking one of Iran’s.”
Iran Hit Mq-9 Drone over Strait of Hormuz—IRGC Media | Iran International
“Iran’s Revolutionary Guards air force intercepted and struck an MQ-9 drone over the Strait of Hormuz using a new advanced air defense system, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News reported on Monday.”
Trump Touts ‘Denuclearization of Iran’ as Major Achievement | Iran International
“US President Donald Trump listed ‘the denuclearization of Iran’ among his administration’s major achievements Monday as he promoted his polling numbers and urged Americans to vote Republican.”
“American airpower can inflict devastating damage on Iran’s military establishment, but that does not constitute a strategy. To be productive, military effects must be connected to a defined political purpose. If Iran believes it only needs to survive until the American political environment changes, then retaliatory strikes alone can be waited out. To be effective, the U.S. must convince Tehran that waiting will make its position progressively worse—not better.”
The Iran and Ukraine Wars Were Never Separate | Amb. John Bolton in the Washington Post
“[F]undamental international realities, particularly the emerging Beijing-Moscow axis—the Xi-Putin ‘partnership without limits’— are critical. Iran, Belarus and North Korea are axis outriders. . . . With all this in mind, the administration’s main strategic focus should be prioritizing U.S. national security interests and capabilities. That does not mean waging all-out war on all fronts. The White House must prioritize in ways the U.S. has been unwilling to do since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Playing down the interconnections, a favorite Trump trope, doesn’t disappear them or lessen their materiality to U.S. strategy. America is more likely to succeed if it acknowledges that the ‘wider war’ has long been underway and will be for the foreseeable future.”
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Human Rights: Kurdish Protester Sentenced to Death | IranWire
“Iran Human Rights announced that Mehdi Roshani, a Kurdish protester arrested in connection with the January 6 protests in Malekshahi County, has been sentenced to death on security-related charges. . . . Citing an informed source, Iran Human Rights reported that an individual who saw Mehdi Roshani after his return from Tehran observed extensive signs of torture on his body.”
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Mojtaba Khamenei Plans to Replace Iran’s Top Security Official, In-Law Says | Iran International
“Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei plans to replace Supreme National Security Council chief Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr with his top military aide Mohsen Rezaei, senior cleric and Khamenei in-law Mohammad-Bagher Kharrazi said.”
CONGRESS & IRAN
Hegseth Struggles to Sell Senate on Iran War Funding | The Hill
“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has yet to win any notable converts in the Trump administration’s push for tens of billions of dollars to quickly inject into the Iran war, which has rapidly exhausted U.S. stockpiles and Pentagon coffers. The effort is further complicated by Republican senators losing confidence in Hegseth’s leadership of the U.S. military as the war with Iran drags into its sixth month with no end in sight. And some in the GOP say the administration didn’t fully prepare them for the cost of the conflict, which Hegseth said earlier in July had reached $37.5 billion. But independent analysts—such as Moody Analytics—project it has cost at least $132 billion.”
RUSSIA & IRAN
“Since the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormus and the US sea blockade against Iran, the Caspian Sea has played an increasingly important role—also with regard to weapons. Russia is supplying drone components to Iran by sea, American government officials reported. This was intended to rebuild the Iranian drone arsenal, which was decimated by around 60 percent in the war.”
MISCELLANEOUS
“Today, as Iranians inside Iran faces countless humanitarian crises, it seems that their oldest and closest friends, the Jews/Israelis who have such a warm shared history are in the best position to help the people of Iran on an emergency basis once the Islamic regime ceases to hold power in Iran. Israel’s close proximity to Iran, expertise in past help to Iranians and close past alliance with the Iranian people make it the ideal candidate to provide immediate help the suffering people of Iran once the current Islamic regime is gone. Today it would be wise for Israeli political and military officials to create some sort of contingency “Marshal Plan” to immediately help the people of Iran to the best of their ability for emergency humanitarian help for day after the Ayatollahs are stricken from power or fall from power inside Iran. Such a plan would undoubtedly help save millions of lives and avoid a [catastrophic] humanitarian disaster inside Iran.