TOP STORIES
Trump Mulls Risky Kharg Island Takeover to Force Iran to Open Strait | Axios
The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, four sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.
U.S. Weighs Lifting Iranian Oil Sanctions to Keep Price in Check | Axios
The White House is considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil that's at sea to keep oil prices down, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday. . . . “In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water,” Bessent told Fox Business . . . He said that would make up about 140 million barrels—about 10 days to two weeks of supply. “In essence, we’d be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers.”
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s judiciary on Thursday ignored a U.S. State Department warning along with pleas from elite Iranian-American wrestlers to not execute 19-year-old champion wrestler Saleh Mohammadi for protesting against the Khamenei regime. Reports say Mohammadi was killed in a public hanging seen as a barbaric move by the Iranian regime to snuff out the ongoing movement seeking to topple it, according to Iranian American human rights activists and dissidents.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Class, Faith or Fear: What Drives the Iran Regime’s Supporters? | Times of London
Internal documents from 2023 that were obtained by Kasra Aarabi and Saeid Golkar, of United Against Nuclear Iran, detail the department’s five-year plan to “organise at least four million people into 800,000 small groups across all cultural and societal fields”, and to have 5 per cent of each neighbourhood ready to enter the “domestic battlefront” during times of popular unrest. . . . Aarabi described the hard base as a “society within a society”, with members of the IRGC typically living within their own compounds and villages and their children often attending elite schools. . . . Adherents of Mahdism believe that the Mahdi’s return will be presaged by apocalyptic destruction. The bombing campaign by Israel and the US “will only energise the hard base because they view destruction as a sign of the nearing of their messianic hidden imam,” Aarabi said. . . . “I think that the West has underestimated the ideological commitment of this hard base,” Aarabi said. “That’s not to say that the military operation can’t succeed in toppling the regime. But in order to do so, it will require a comprehensive operation. And it will require weakening the willingness and the capabilities of not just the IRGC and the Basij, but ultimately the hard base more widely.”
This American Woman Defected to Iran. She Could Be the Regime’s Secret Weapon | Times of London
“The New Horizons Organisation was one such outfit that provided a recruitment pool for the IRGC,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). . . . “New variations of such initiatives have appeared since,” Brodsky added. “One such outfit I’ve been concerned about … has been inviting American and European influencers to visit Tehran, where they prepare propaganda content that assists the Iranian regime. There are other, more subtle, ways Iran’s regime seeks to recruit Westerners—some wittingly, others unwittingly.” Some experts were unconvinced that Witt would prove useful during Operation Epic Fury. Brodsky suspects the US government “long ago mitigated the damage” of her counterintelligence knowledge.
The military campaign against Iran is probably weeks from achieving what was initially envisioned. The Pentagon’s proposed calendar might match neither Mr. Trump’s temperament—which at times seems guided by volatile financial markets—nor Iranian ingenuity in hiding and husbanding the country’s remaining assets. Nonetheless, the degradation of the Islamic Republic as a military and nuclear power has been enormous and is likely irreversible. It will take years, perhaps decades, for the clerical regime—if it survives—to rebuild. . . . What seems accepted wisdom in Washington—that Iran wins in a longer war—is surely militarily untrue. A war of attrition could destroy the Islamic Republic. But does Mr. Trump have the will to carry on and deploy the means needed? It would require U.S.-protected convoys to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. . . . [O]nce the U.S. Navy opens the strait, assuming the White House can absorb the economic and political fallout—meaning market turmoil and the possibility of U.S. ships’ getting hit—the Islamic Republic will be militarily and economically bankrupt.
UANI Spots 25 Iranian Oil Tankers in Persian Gulf | Iran International
United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) on Thursday published information showing at least 25 tankers carrying Iranian oil west of the Strait of Hormuz.
UANI Senior Research Analyst Jemima Shelley Comments on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis | i24
Shelley: “We’ve had reports that several governments are in direct talks with Tehran coordinating vessel transit [through the strait].”
A Container Ship is Aflame More Than Two Weeks After It Was Attacked | TradeWinds
Satellite imagery showed smoke billowing from the ship on Wednesday, according to US-based United Against Nuclear Iran.
Prior to his selection, Khamenei had occupied a similar role to that of Ahmad Khomeini, a son of Iran’s first Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini—“a combination of aide-de-camp, confidant, gatekeeper and power broker,” according to United Against Nuclear Iran, a U.S.-based pressure group.
But Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, said the strategy could ultimately backfire. “Iran has aimed for years to encircle Israel in a ring of fire,” Brodsky said. “But with its missile and drone strikes against Gulf countries and other neighbors, it’s actually risking encircling itself in a ring of fire.” Brodsky added that the attacks could do long-term damage to Tehran’s relationships across the region and create new opportunities for Israel and the United States to deepen cooperation with regional partners. “To externalize the costs economically, politically, and militarily, Iran sought to expand the geography of the conflict to deter the U.S.,” Brodsky said, and instead made its missile program “the center of international attention.”
MILITARY MATTERS & REGIME CHANGE
US F-35 Hit, Forced to Make Emergency Landing, IRGC Takes Credit | Jerusalem Post
A US F-35 fighter jet was forced to make an emergency landing at a US air base in the Middle East after being struck by what is believed to be Iranian fire, CNN reported on Thursday, citing two sources familiar with the matter. Iranian media claimed the IRGC was behind the hit shortly after.
Trump Says He Won’t Send Troops to Iran But Leaves Wiggle Room | New York Times
“I’m not putting troops anywhere,’ Mr. Trump told a reporter who asked about using ground troops. “If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you.” . . . He said on Thursday that while he hated to attack Iran, he felt it was necessary, even though oil prices would rise and the economy might “go down a little bit.” “I thought there was a chance it could be much worse,” he said. “It’s not bad, and it will be over with pretty soon.”
No Timeframe for Ending US War Against Iran, Says Pete Hegseth | Guardian
The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, said on Thursday there is no “timeframe” for ending the US war against Iran and did not deny reports that the Pentagon could seek an extra $200bn in taxpayer funding. . . . Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon, Hegseth suggested that Thursday would bring the biggest US onslaught so far. “To date, we’ve struck over 7,000 targets across Iran and its military infrastructure,” the defense secretary said. “Today will be the largest strike package yet . . . death and destruction from above.”
Netanyahu Says Israel ‘Acted Alone’ in Attack on Iranian Gas Field | BBC News
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel “acted alone” in attacking an Iranian gas field, as tensions mount over strikes on energy infrastructure across the region. . . . Speaking at a news conference on Thursday, the Israeli leader said Trump had requested that there be no further such attacks on energy targets.
Israeli Officials Said U.S. Was Told About South Pars Attack | New York Times
An Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field was coordinated with the Trump administration in advance, according to three Israeli officials, despite President Trump’s initial assertion in a social media post that the United States “knew nothing about” it.
Strike on Key Iranian Gas Field Is a New Phase of the War. Trump Blames Israel | Politico
The widening attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East have created a rift between the White House and its Gulf allies while increasing fears of a global recession. . . . President Donald Trump quickly distanced his administration from the attack, and a person familiar with the White House’s thinking, granted anonymity to discuss private discussion, said the strike unsettled the administration. “Israelis have been very reckless,” the person said, adding that Qatar reached out to U.S. officials to say Israel’s targeting of energy infrastructure needs to be stopped. “Lots of frustration with them.” . . . On Thursday, Trump told reporters at the White House that he called Netanyahu to tell him that Israel should not target energy infrastructure.
“I told him don’t do that,” Trump said. “We’re independent but we get along great. It’s coordinated. But on occasion he’ll do something and I don’t like it. And so we’re not doing that anymore.”
Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy’s CEO and state minister for energy affairs told Reuters on Thursday. Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in the unprecedented strikes. The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five years, he said in an interview.
Iran Retaliation Is Forcing Gulf Nations into a Stark Decision: Whether to Join the Fight | NBC News
As Gulf state leaders gathered in a Riyadh hotel this week to discuss the growing Middle East war, strikes from Tehran blasted outside. Iran was sending a clear message, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said. . . . As the war drags into a third week, Persian Gulf states are being increasingly bombarded with retaliatory strikes from a defiant Iran, caught in the middle of the war initiated by the U.S. and Israel for which President Donald Trump has offered shifting rationales and a changing timeline. It’s forcing Gulf nations into a stark decision: whether or not to join the fight.
Saudi Official Warns Patience Is Limited as Iranian Attacks Barrage Kingdom | New York Times
Hours after eight ballistic missiles exploded over the Saudi capital, the kingdom’s foreign minister warned that his government had limited patience with Iran and reserved the right “to take military actions if deemed necessary.” . . . When asked what would prompt a military response, the prince declined to elaborate. “Do they have a day, two, a week?” the prince asked. “I’m not going to telegraph that.” He added that “what little trust” there was between the kingdom and Iran had “completely been shattered.”
Netanyahu Says Iran Is Being ‘Decimated’ But Revolution Requires ‘Ground Component’ | CNBC
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said “Iran is being decimated” as the U.S. and Israel target its ballistic missile and nuclear programs from the air — but he added that meaningful regime change will require a “ground component.” “You don’t want to replace one ayatollah with another,” Netanyahu said at a press conference. “You don’t want to replace Hitler with Hitler.” He said that the Iranian people must ultimately “rise to the moment.” “We can create the conditions, but they have to, you know, they have to exploit those conditions at a certain point,” he said.
Canada, Allies Say They’re Ready to Help Secure Strait of Hormuz, But Don’t Say How | CBC News
Canada has signed on to a joint statement by the leaders of seven countries calling on Iran to immediately cease all attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping and expressing a readiness to contribute to efforts to reopen the Strait. The statement does not say how the countries might help, although Defence Minister David McGuinty said Canada is "considering" aiding Iran's neighbours if they seek assistance from the NATO alliance. . . . Canada signed on to the statement shortly after it was published by the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan. In addition, the leaders say they are ready to “contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait.”
Iran Considers Levying Transit Fees on Ships in Hormuz Strait, Lawmaker Says | Reuters
Iran is considering a proposal to levy transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a lawmaker said on Thursday, a potential bid to monetise Tehran’s newfound grip over the critical waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied gas passes. . . . An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader said “a new regime for the Strait of Hormuz” will follow the war's eventual end, allowing Tehran to apply maritime restrictions on states that have sanctioned it.
“By using the strategic position of the Strait of Hormuz, we can sanction (the West) and prevent their ships from passing through this waterway,” Mohammad Mokhber said on Thursday, according to Mehr news agency.
Basij Deputy Commander Confirmed Dead | Iran International
Esmail Ahmadi, a senior intelligence official in Iran’s Basij and deputy to its commander, has been confirmed dead. Guards-linked Tasnim website described Ahmadi as “one of the most important pillars of the Basij organization” who held key security responsibilities.
IRGC Aerospace Commander Killed in Strikes, Media Say | Iran International
Mehdi Qureishi, a commander in the Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace force, was killed in recent Israeli and US strikes in Isfahan, Iranian media reported on Friday.
Trump Lauds Japan’s Promise, However Vague, to Help with Iran | Politico
Japan’s prime minister came to the White House on Thursday and delivered exactly what President Donald Trump has been looking for: a promise to join a U.S.-led coalition to stabilize shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where a blockade by Iran is disrupting global oil supplies. “Only you . . . can achieve peace across the world,” Takaichi Sanae told Trump. Aligning herself behind the president’s position that Iran “must never” develop nuclear weapons, she also affirmed that Japan will join a small group of allies in committing to a dialogue about how to secure the Strait.
NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Netanyahu Says Iran No Longer Has Uranium Enrichment Capacity | CNBC
Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles after 20 days of U.S.-Israeli air attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a news conference on Thursday. “We are winning, and Iran is being decimated,” Netanyahu said, noting that Iran’s missile and drone arsenal is being massively degraded and will be destroyed. “What we’re destroying now are the factories that produce the components to make these missiles and to make the nuclear weapons that they’re trying to produce,” Netanyahu said.
Tehran Meeting Struck by Israel Likely Tied to Iran’s Atomic Bomb Plans | Iran International
A meeting of senior Iranian officials that was hit by an Israeli airstrike on February 28 may have been linked to the Islamic Republic’s final deliberations over building a nuclear weapon. On the last day of February, as reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed in an Israeli bombardment, it was also announced that a meeting of the Defense Council had been struck. . . . Among those killed were Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Khamenei and secretary of the Defense Council; Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces; and Aziz Nasirzadeh, the defense minister. Also killed were two figures associated with Iran’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its Persian acronym SPND, the direct successor organization to Iran’s pre-2004 nuclear weapons program.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
The Enemy in Iran in One Lesson | Wall Street Journal Editorial
We know it’s fashionable on the left and even in some parts of the right these days to think that President Trump is the enemy in the Iran war. So forgive us for pointing out the character of the actual enemy our troops are fighting. To wit, Iran’s regime has resumed executing its citizens for protesting against the government.
HOSTAGES
Detained Britons Used as 'Human Shields' in Iran War Zone, Family Says | Reuters
The family of a British couple detained in Iran said on Friday the pair were being used as “human shields” during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and they accused Britain's government of failing to make progress on their release. Lindsay and Craig Foreman were sentenced to 10 years in prison last year after Iran charged them with espionage, which they deny.
CYBERSECURITY MATTERS
Iran Combines Real-World Missile Attacks with Online Threats | New York Times
As Iranian missiles flew over Israel on Thursday, and people scrambled into bunkers, cellphones in the country lit up with a stream of messages. One from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps threatened strikes against Israeli citizens and falsely claimed to have killed the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Seconds later, another message went out claiming to be from the Israeli authorities that contained a link to a malicious app. None of the techniques were new, but the combination of a real-world strike, a disinformation push and a cyberattack was different.
Justice Department Seizes Domains Linked to Iran Hacker Group | NBC News
The Justice Department has seized four internet domains linked to Iran, including one used by a hacker group that claimed responsibility for a cyberattack on a U.S. medical tech company. The seized domains “Justicehomeland.org,” “Handala-Hack.to,” “Karmabelow80.org,” and “Handala-Redwanted.to,” were also used by Iranian Intelligence and Security Ministry to claim credit for hacking and to post sensitive data, the Justice Department said Thursday.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranians Prepares for Persian New Year Under Shadow of War | BBC News
Meanwhile, there are some inside the country who support the war continuing. “What's the point of Nowruz? If the Islamic Republic stays in power, we have to live with endless hardships. Nowruz is always there, comes and goes. This time, the Islamic Republic must go,” says Ramtin, a man in his 30s in Tehran. Kian, also from Tehran, says his mum “says she'd even be willing for the house to collapse on her head if it meant the clerics would be gone. I feel the same. Even if everything falls apart, I still think the Islamic Republic needs to go. We don't care about Nowruz, we don't even have Haft Sin on our table.”
CONGRESS & IRAN
Republicans Balk at Going It Alone on Iran War Funding | Politico
Congressional Republicans are confronting serious doubts they can pass Iran war funding on their own, especially as the potential price tag balloons into the hundreds of billions of dollars.
The alternative—relying on a handful of Democrats to push it through the Senate—doesn’t look any more likely as Middle East hostilities expand, energy prices rise and more Democratic lawmakers dig in against an unpopular war.
GULF STATES & IRAN
Oman Claims Israel Pushed US into Iran War When Deal Was Possible | Guardian
Oman’s foreign minister has claimed the US has “lost control of its own foreign policy” and accused Israel of persuading Donald Trump’s administration to go to war with Iran—a conflict he described as a “catastrophe” and a “grave miscalculation”.
MISCELLANEOUS
Slain Iranian Official’s Sons Hold $29M in Dubai Property Using Assumed Names | OCCRP
A sanctioned Iranian oil magnate and his brother have used aliases and Caribbean “golden passports” to amass a $29 million luxury real estate portfolio in Dubai, property records show.