After Khamenei: A Who’s Who of those now in charge of Iran.

UANI Senior Advisor Saeid Golkar: If the regime survives this transition, it is unlikely to move toward liberalization. On the contrary, the logic of succession under pressure tends to favor securitization. In the absence of a leader of Khamenei’s stature, the system will rely more heavily on collective elite management and on the security apparatus to deter both internal dissent and external pressure. The IRGC and its allied institutions will not allow instability to open space for popular mobilization. Repression, surveillance, and centralized coordination are likely to intensify rather than diminish. . . . Khamenei’s death so far signals a moment of reconfiguration. But the formal institutions continue to function and the security elite remains cohesive. The key question is whether this coalition can maintain unity under mounting U.S. and Israeli attacks and domestic and international pressure. If it does, Iran will likely emerge from this crisis, not weaker in coercive capacity, but more openly defined by it.