TOP STORIES
U.S. Officials Say Iran Is Laying Mines in the Strait of Hormuz | New York Times
Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf channel that carries 20 percent of the world’s oil, according to U.S. officials, an effort that could further complicate American efforts to restart shipping there. While the U.S. military said it had destroyed larger Iranian naval vessels that could be used to quickly lay mines in the strait, Iran began using smaller boats for the operation on Thursday, according to a U.S. official briefed on the intelligence.
Trump Claimed in G7 Call That Iran is “About to Surrender” | Axios
President Trump told G7 leaders in a virtual meeting Wednesday that Iran is “about to surrender,” according to three officials from G7 countries briefed on the contents of the call. . . . Trump was “ambiguous and noncommittal” on his objectives and timeline for ending the war, sources said. Some participants left the call believing he wants to wind it down—others felt the complete opposite.
Iran’s New Supreme Leader Vows Revenge on U.S., Israel | Axios
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in his first public message that his country will take revenge for the ongoing U.S. and Israeli attacks. . . . Khamenei warned that attacks on U.S. military bases in the region would continue if they aren’t shut down and stressed Iran will maintain its leverage by continuing to close the Strait of Hormuz.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The Illicit Iranian Oil Hiding in Plain Sight | Financial Times
Using mainly satellite imagery, the United Against Nuclear Iran lobby group observed 679 transfers taking place in these waters last year, up from 280 in 2023. “Malaysia claims it is not empowered to take action, so it is like free parking with no parking inspectors,” said Charlie Brown, a Singapore-based senior adviser at UANI, a US-based group that campaigns for tough enforcement of sanctions.
Aarabi: “The Islamic regime’s slogan is ‘Death to England.’ It has plotted 20 terror attacks on UK soil—and is targeting our MPs. Yet, British civil servants attended the regime’s embassy to celebrate its Islamic Revolution—days after it massacred 40,000 Iranian protestors. A total disgrace.”
UANI Senior Analyst Jemima Shelley Discusses Iran | i24 News Francais
Shelley: “The Iranian people aspire to a liberal and democratic Iran, while the regime continues to impose a radical ideology that directly targets its own population, particularly women.”
Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran (Uani), echoed the call, urging ministers to “duplicate the Russian model” by setting up a task force to “identify and sanction regime oligarchs who are living lavish lifestyles in the UK on blood money. “These are the sons and daughters of the IRGC commanders – in many cases, they are IRGC commanders.”
Kasra Aarabi, of United Against Nuclear Iran, said: "It is deeply concerning that someone who has shared these platforms can then be allowed to organise a march on British streets, at the same time the IRGC is proactively plotting terror in the UK against British citizens."
The advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran said it recorded 679 instances of oil transfer between ships in the region last year, a sharp increase from 280 the previous year.
MILITARY MATTERS
Checkpoint Attacks Open New Front in Iran War | Iran International
The Iran war appears to be entering a new phase as attacks increasingly target checkpoints and street-level security units, while witness reports sent to Iran International suggest many of those positions are being moved or dismantled after their locations are exposed. . . . The development suggests the conflict is increasingly intersecting with the structures the state relies on to control neighborhoods rather than only its larger military infrastructure.
Desertions, Shortages and Army-IRGC Rift Strain Iran’s Military | Iran International
Iran’s armed forces are facing acute supply shortages, rising desertions and deepening friction between the regular army (Artesh) and the Revolutionary Guards, according to informed sources who described a military system under growing strain as the war intensifies. Among the most serious allegations are reports that wounded army personnel have been denied assistance by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), that some frontline units are operating with minimal ammunition, food and drinking water, and that attempts to mobilize reserve forces have faltered.
Iran Escalates Attacks on Infrastructure and Transport Networks Across the Gulf | Guardian
Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes.
Israel Relying on Ordinary Iranians for Drone Strike Targets | Wall Street Journal
Israel is relying on targets sent by ordinary Iranians for its strikes in Iran during the current war, according to a senior Israeli security official. This was the case on Wednesday night when an Israeli Hermes UAV struck Basij checkpoints in Tehran.
Pentagon: First Week of Iran War Cost About $11B | Politico
The U.S. spent about $11 billion last week on the Iran war, a Pentagon official said Thursday, offering the first public estimate of the conflict’s cost—and one Democratic lawmakers insist is much higher. Jules Hurst III, the Defense Department’s acting comptroller, said the figure was a “ballpark number” during a defense summit in Washington. His office is working on a more comprehensive figure for a supplemental budget request, he said, which the Pentagon plans to submit to the White House and Congress in the coming days.
DIPLOMACY
Iran Says Truce Depends on US, Israel Pledging Not to Strike | Bloomberg
Iran has told regional intermediaries that for a ceasefire, the US must guarantee that neither it nor Israel will strike the country in the future, according to several officials familiar with the matter. Iran is particularly concerned Israel will attack again after the current war ends, said the people.
PROXY WARS
This Military Rebel Group Could Join the Iran War Next Against the U.S. | Axios
The U.S. and Israel could soon find themselves a new enemy in the Iran war—the Houthis. . . . Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Thursday vowed retaliation against Israel and the U.S. for its campaign against Iran . . . He also thanked Hezbollah in Lebanon, the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen for their support, suggesting the Houthis could be next to join the war. The Houthis warned earlier this week that their “fingers are on the trigger.”
HOMELAND SECURITY
California Officials Say No Imminent Iran Threat Found After FBI Alert | Guardian
California leaders said on Wednesday there was no imminent threat to the state from Iran after the FBI sent a warning to local police about a potential plan to strike the west coast, which was based on “unverified information.”
SHIPPING, SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran Keeps Oil Flowing to China as Hormuz Pressure Forces Reserve Release | Iran International
Iran is still loading about 1.5 million barrels of crude a day in March while China is receiving about 1.25 million barrels daily, Kpler data show, even as days of Iranian pressure around the Strait of Hormuz and rising prices force consuming nations to tap emergency reserves. The figures suggest Tehran’s oil lifeline has not been cut despite a widening maritime crisis that has already disrupted shipping and shaken energy markets since the war began on February 28.
Iran War Tests Xi Jinping’s Plan to Build China’s Stockpiles | Financial Times
When Xi Jinping secured his third five-year term as China’s leader in late 2022, he started warning senior cadres to prepare for the “stormy seas” and “worst-case scenarios” that lay ahead for the nation of 1.4bn people. . . . About one-third of China’s oil and 25 per cent of its gas imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has all but halted since US and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the region into crisis.
‘Sitting Ducks’: Oil Tankers Trapped in Gulf as Iran Widens Attacks on Shipping | Financial Times
Oil tanker owners fear their vessels have become “sitting ducks” trapped in the Gulf as Iran extends its attacks on shipping, with little prospect of naval escorts commencing in the coming weeks.
'There's No Hiding Place on a Ship': The Sailors Stranded near Iran | BBC News
Drones, cruise missiles and fighter jets have become a common sight for many sailors stranded on oil tankers and freight ships in the Gulf, after Iran threatened to open fire on any vessels trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, in response to US-Israeli attacks.
CYBERSECURITY MATTERS
Iran-Linked Group Says It Hacked US Company in Retaliation for Minab School Bombing | Guardian
An Iran-linked group said it hacked a US medical company, causing “global disruption” to its systems, in retaliation for the bombing of the Minab school in Iran . . . Handala, a hacker group, claimed responsibility for the attack on Wednesday on the Stryker Corporation, which makes medical devices and is based in Michigan. It affected thousands of employees using the company’s Microsoft systems.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
IRGC Threatens Harsher Crackdown If Protests Return | Iran International
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps warned on Thursday that opponents could face a blow “even stronger than January 8,” signaling the possibility of a renewed and harsher crackdown if street protests resume.
Allies Rally, Rivals Brace After Mojtaba Khamenei’s Rise | Iran International
Regional reactions to the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new Supreme Leader have revealed growing anxiety about stability, with Tehran’s allies condemning the killing of his father and adversaries hardening their military posture. Khamenei Jr’s continued absence from public view has fueled speculation among analysts and diplomats about how power is being exercised during the transition.
Khamenei’s Wife is Alive, IRGC Outlet Says Denying Official Reports | Iran International
Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, the wife of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is alive and earlier reports claiming she had been killed were incorrect, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News reported Thursday.
REGIME DEFECTIONS
Two Iranian Diplomats Apply for Asylum in Denmark, Australia | Iran International
Alireza Sohbati, a diplomat at the Iranian embassy in Copenhagen, and Mohammad Pournajaf, a diplomat at the Iranian embassy in Canberra, have submitted asylum requests. Pournajaf had previously served as the chargé d'affaires of the Islamic Republic’s embassy in Australia.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Democrats Ask Pentagon About Iran School Strike and Role of AI | NBC News
More than 120 Democratic members of Congress are asking the Pentagon for detailed information about how the U.S. military is limiting civilian casualties in Iran and what role artificial intelligence is playing in choosing targets.
RUSSIA, UKRAINE & IRAN
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ Lies Behind Iran’s Drone Tactics, UK Defence Secretary Says | Guardian
Vladimir Putin’s “hidden hand” lies behind Iran’s military methods, the UK defence secretary has said, after a night in which drones struck a base used by western forces in Erbil, northern Iraq. . . . Iranian drone pilots were “flying them much lower, and therefore they were more effective” in hitting targets, [Lt. Gen. Nick] Perry said. That had “proven problematic,” he said, because Shahed drones were becoming one of Tehran’s more effective weapons as the conflict heads towards a third week.
EUROPE & IRAN
Foreign Office Staff Celebrated Islamic Revolution at Iranian Embassy | Telegraph
[British] Foreign Office staff attended a party at the Iranian embassy to celebrate the Islamic revolution just weeks after the regime massacred thousands of its own people. As smartly dressed guests, including UK civil servants, gathered at the London event, embassy officials hailed Iran’s “remarkable accomplishments” in spite of “unjust” Western sanctions. Video footage shows attendees standing in silence for a rendition of Iran’s national anthem.
HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Iran Pays Lebanon Parliament Speaker $500,000 a Month to Maintain Influence | Iran International
Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri receives more than $500,000 per month from the Islamic Republic in order to support Tehran's interests and those of its allied group Hezbollah in Lebanon, informed sources told Iran International. Officials in Tehran say the sums are meant to “buy” unity among Lebanon’s Shiite leadership to ensure that they “act in accordance with Iran’s interests, not Lebanon’s interests.”
MISCELLANEOUS
Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Has Verified Account on X, Elon Musk’s Platform | CNBC
Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has a new “verified” account on X, the influential social media platform owned by Elon Musk. . . . Katie Paul, director of the Tech Transparency Project, blasted the fact that Mojtaba Khamenei had been allowed an X account. TTP in February released a report that found there were X accounts in the names of Iranian officials, agencies and government-run media outlets that had a blue check mark, which indicates they were customers of X’s premium service.
Trump Says It Is Not ‘Appropriate’ for Iran Soccer Team to Be at World Cup | Politico
President Donald Trump said Thursday that Iran should not compete in the upcoming World Cup hosted in North America, despite assuring the FIFA president days earlier that they would be welcome amid the war in the Middle East. “The Iran National Soccer Team is welcome to The World Cup, but I really don’t believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.