Iran’s new age of revolutions

UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi & Senior Advisor Dr. Saeid Golkar write: Suppression has become the only answer the Islamic Republic has to the crises it faces. It is for this reason that the security forces—centred on the IRGC—constitutes the single most significant barrier to regime change. They have repeatedly demonstrated that the regime has not only the capabilities but also the willingness to repress a determined yet largely defenceless population through brutal force and unrestrained violence. As long as this coercive advantage remains intact, cycles of protest and suppression are likely to continue without producing systemic change. . . . A meaningful shift would require altering the balance of power between the Iranian people and the regime’s suppressive apparatus. Without external pressure, the Islamic Republic retains sufficient tools to suppress unrest and deter elite defection. More active western engagement could, however, tilt the balance of power between unarmed protestors and the regime’s radicalised, coercive machinery. Effective pressure must therefore target both pillars of repression: the willingness to use violence and the capacity to sustain it. This means targeted military strikes that can neutralise key commanders and units as well as the critical headquarters of the suppressive apparatus. Beyond military means, coordinated strategies such as naming and shaming individuals who are actively involved in suppressing unarmed civilians, targeted sanctions and the full diplomatic isolation of the Islamic Republic can raise the costs of repression and weaken the foundations on which the regime’s control ultimately rests.