TOP STORIES
US Blockade Keeps Iranian Crude Exports at Zero in October, Report Says | Reuters
“The US blockade has kept Iranian crude exports at zero in October, according to a report from energy intelligence platform Vortexa, having plummeted in the second week of September.”
Iran Shifting Tactics to Step up Attacks on Shipping Before US Vote, Officials Say | Reuters
“Iran is deploying new tactics to target ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz as it seeks to keep oil prices high and influence the US midterm elections, two senior Iranian officials told Reuters.”
The Houthis Are Building an Advanced Missile with Chinese Parts | Wall Street Journal
“Houthi militants are attempting to produce their own advanced medium-range ballistic missiles using Chinese-delivered parts, a new report shows, a technological advance that would raise the threat posed by the Iran-backed group. The Houthis shipped in from a Chinese supplier a range of components needed to make a version of one of Iran’s most powerful weapons, the Kheibar Shekan Iranian precision-guided missile, said the report by Conflict Armament Research, a group that works in conflict zones and reports on the use of weapons and their supply chains. The Houthi missile would have a range up to about 1,200 miles, putting all of Saudi Arabia and Israel within reach.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
Why Is Britain Still Appeasing Iran? | Wall Street Journal Editorial
“The plot against the U.K.’s Fairford air base and its U.S. B-1 bombers was ‘almost certainly directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard’ (IRGC), British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said Monday. In response, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband summoned the Iranian ambassador for a talking-to and sanctioned two Iranian operatives already under U.S. sanctions—because that’ll show ’em. . . . Mr. Miliband says ‘Britain will not tolerate threats on our soil’ while its actions suggest Britain will do just that. This isn’t a ‘one-off’ in the U.K. for Iran’s regime, notes Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran: ‘More than 20 IRGC terror plots have been foiled since 2022 alone.’”
Iran Escalates Hormuz Tanker Attacks in Gamble Ahead of US Midterms | Iran International
“Iran’s surge in attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz may be an attempt to exploit US restraint ahead of the midterm elections and undermine a recovery in Persian Gulf oil shipments, experts told Iran International. . . . Charlie Brown, a maritime security expert with United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), believes the timing may be linked to President Donald Trump's announcement that Washington would not launch new attacks against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. ‘I think Trump signaled it, right? He said he wouldn’t attack until the election,’ Brown told Iran International. ‘So, you know, now they’re taking that as word, I guess. And testing it and taking advantage of the situation.’ Brown said the absence of direct American retaliation for the latest strikes may be encouraging Tehran to push further.’
Interview with UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi | TalkTV
“Banning [a London-based TV show accused of being a propaganda arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] is a no-brainer, right? You’d think so. But unfortunately, this is once again the [UK] government refusing to act.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran Faces Worse Economic Outlook than War-Hit Mideast Rivals, IMF Says | Iran International
“The International Monetary Fund forecast Tuesday that Iran’s economy would shrink 7.6% in 2026, a worse outlook than for its main Middle Eastern rivals amid the war, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE facing smaller contractions and Israel and Turkey expected to grow.”
Iranian Wheat Farmers Face Planting Cash Crunch as Payments Lag, Rial Slides | Iran International
“Iranian wheat farmers told Iran International that delayed government payments for their previous harvest are leaving them short of cash for autumn planting, while inflation and the falling rial erode the value of money they are still owed.”
MILITARY MATTERS & SHIPPING
Inside Trump, Netanyahu’s Dilemma: Strike Iran Before Elections or Wait | Axios
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump last week discussed the possibility of launching a major new operation against Iran before the Israeli and U.S. elections, according to two U.S. officials, one Israeli official and a fourth source with knowledge of the matter. Netanyahu said during the call that he was concerned about Israeli intelligence indicating Iran was taking troubling steps to reconstitute its nuclear program, according to the Israeli official. . . . ‘Bibi seems to want to go in again. He has talked to the president about it a couple times, and the president has said, ‘Well, you know, Bibi, go ahead and get ready.’ But there's really no commitment. ‘Go ahead and get ready’ is maybe now, maybe later, maybe never,’ a U.S. official said.”
Trump: China, Russia ‘Have Too Much to Lose’ to Help Iran | The Hill
“President Trump late Monday accused China and Russia of having “too much to lose” to enable Iran in the ongoing conflict. ‘I see so many comments from the Radical Left Morons and Lunatics that China and Russia are helping the ‘wonderful’ Islamic Republic of Iran,’ Trump wrote on Truth Social. ‘If they are, it’s at a very low level, but I don’t believe they are at all.’ He added, ‘They have too much to lose, and we would know about it, and know about it very fast!’”
“Iran has made a ‘major shift’ in its efforts to attack the United Kingdom, including going after harder targets such as military bases, the head of Britain's domestic spy agency MI5 warned Tuesday. . . . Iran, he said, has demonstrated that it is ‘keen on subcontracting its U.K. violence … using criminal proxies to try to intimidate oppositionists, Iranian media organizations, and Israeli sites.’”
Iran Hits Six Oil Tankers in Single Day | Telegraph
“Iran has intensified attacks on oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran’s forces struck six commercial vessels in and around the waterway on Sunday, a record in a single day, as part of its attempt to reassert control over the world’s most strategically important oil conduit. Alireza Ozmaei, the naval commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned that any vessel switching off its navigation and identification systems in the strait would be treated as ‘hostile’ and dealt with ‘firmly and decisively.’ Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, said the IRGC was striking vessels nightly.”
Iran Claims Mine Sank Container Ship amid Fresh Hormuz Attacks | Seatrade Maritime News
“UKMTO has issued four new warnings of separate attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, reporting strikes on a tanker and three container ships on 13 October. . . . The four attacks bring UKMTO’s tally of warnings to 24 for the month of October to date, as well as three advisories.”
Israeli Media: Netanyahu Urged Trump to Launch Attacks on Iran | IranWire
“Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked U.S. President Donald Trump last week to resume attacks on the Islamic Republic ahead of the Israeli elections and the U.S. midterm elections. According to the report, U.S. officials inferred from the bilateral discussions that Netanyahu wants an attack to take place prior to the elections, pointing to the Islamic Republic’s concerning actions in the nuclear sector to justify it. An American source told Channel 12 that Trump told Netanyahu he could ‘continue preparations,’ but gave no formal commitment to approve an attack.”
IRGC Adviser Threatens Mass Capture of US Troops in Ground War | Iran International
“A US ground invasion of Iran would result in so many American troops being captured that Washington would be forced to surrender, [Mohammed Reza Naghdi,] a senior adviser to the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday.”
Trump Says Iran Decision Coming, Suggests Tehran Behind Houthi Attacks | Iran International
“US President Donald Trump said Tuesday he would make a decision on Iran ‘very soon,’ as fresh attacks hit commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis escalated.”
“US President Donald Trump suggested on Monday that Washington may have gone ‘too far’ in targeting Iran’s leadership, acknowledging that killing senior Iranian officials had complicated efforts to identify figures with whom the United States could negotiate.”
DIPLOMACY
Iran Threatens to Reconsider UK Ties over RAF Fairford Allegations | Iran International
“Iran on Tuesday summoned Britain’s ambassador and threatened to reconsider diplomatic relations after London blamed the IRGC for a suspected plot targeting a US-used airbase and Britain’s intelligence chief warned of growing Iranian threats to military sites.”
PROXY WARS
Trump Says Houthis Trying to Drive Up Oil Prices Ahead of US Midterm Elections | Reuters
“President Donald Trump on Tuesday accused Yemen’s Houthi militants of deliberately trying to drive up oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections and warned that he would ‘never forget’ their attacks on Saudi Arabia, amid a widening regional conflict fueled by the US war with Iran.”
“Iran is trying to orchestrate an attack to influence Israel’s October 27 election—possibly through its Hezbollah and Hamas terror proxies, says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an interview with Channel 14.”
“Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels said Saudi-led forces struck an oil depot on the outskirts of Sanaa on October 13, marking a new escalation in fighting following a week of Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia. . . . Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree threatened a ‘harsh and painful’ response, warning that Saudi oil facilities, including Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran and a refinery in Riyadh, could be targeted.”
ASSASSINATION THREATS & PLOTS
Iran Names New Commander for Renamed Quds Force Assassination Unit | Iran International
“The Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has appointed a new commander to its overseas assassination unit and renamed it to Unit 600 after its personnel and structure were exposed, two sources close to the IRGC-QF told Iran International. Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC’s overseas arm, recently appointed Mojtaba Hagh-Lesan to lead the unit previously known as Unit 840, the sources said. Hagh-Lesan, 64, previously headed the unit’s intelligence department. He replaces Yazdan Mir, also known as Haj Asghar Bagheri, who was killed in a targeted Israeli strike on April 6.”
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Executes Mountaineer After Rights Groups Warn of Imminent Hanging | Iran International
“Iranian authorities executed Ali-Sina Mostafavi, a 38-year-old mountaineer from Kerman, the judiciary’s Mizan News reported on Wednesday. . . . Human rights organizations had also said that Mostafavi, a musician and mountaineer, had been subjected to forced confession. Mizan accused Mostafavi of carrying out armed attacks in Kerman, including shootings that it said wounded civilians. It alleged that he carried out the attacks in support of Iran’s Prince Reza Pahlavi and Israel.”
Iranian Woman Handed Death Sentence for ‘Blasphemy’ in Social Media Post | Guardian
“Human rights groups have raised the alarm over the growing number of death sentences and executions in Iran, after reports that a 23-year-old woman, Najmeh Amini, has been sentenced to death for blasphemy over a social-media post. . . . A source close to Amini’s family told the US-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI) that Amini was sentenced to death on charges of ‘sab ol-nabi’ (insulting the prophet). She was reportedly arrested following online monitoring by Iran’s Cyber Police (Fata). The exact content of her posts has not been publicly disclosed.”
16-Year-Old Child Marriage Victim, Murdered by Husband in Eastern Iran | IranWire
“In an ongoing wave of femicide in Iran, Yeganeh Hosseinzai, a 16-year-old girl from Bakharz in Razavi Khorasan Province who, according to local reports, was married to her paternal cousin at the age of 10, was killed by her husband on October 9. Her husband has been arrested in connection with the case.”
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
“A women’s Basij commander and a police officer were killed in separate attacks on Wednesday in Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan province, adding to a series of deadly shootings, bombings and armed clashes in the region. . . . Tasnim attributed the killing to what it described as militants linked to the United States and Israel, but did not identify a group or provide evidence supporting that assertion. . . . The two killings came a day after major armed confrontations elsewhere in Sistan-Baluchestan that left casualties on both sides, according to Iranian authorities and local reporting.”