TOP STORIES
“Police on Thursday arrested a dual U.K.-Iranian national on suspicion of plotting a terror attack following a security incident at a U.S.-run military air base in England that British authorities have linked to Tehran. The 25-year-old man was arrested in central London on Thursday, and police have searched two properties in the U.K. capital, Counter Terrorism Policing said in a statement.”
Oil Flows Are Up, but Iran Is Still Menacing the Strait of Hormuz | New York Times
“Confidential data shared with The New York Times by a Western security official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters shows that Iran has been launching dozens of drones and missiles at commercial ships in the strait each week, largely out of the public eye, though it has often failed to strike its targets. And on Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps for the first time appeared to confirm it was behind the near-daily sounds of explosions heard from Iran’s southern coast, saying it was striking targets in the Strait of Hormuz every 24 hours. . . . The aggression shows that even as oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded in recent weeks, shipping through the waterway remains risky, as Iran jostles to keep control of one of its biggest sources of leverage.”
U.S. Sending Third Aircraft Carrier, Up to 10,000 More Troops, to Middle East | Wall Street Journal
“The Pentagon is sending a third aircraft-carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, according to U.S. officials, adding 9,000 to 10,000 more troops to the region as President Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. The ships, jet fighters, Marines and sailors will arrive in the region by the end of November, the officials said. Trump recently told aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran that same month, The Wall Street Journal reported.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
“United Against Nuclear Iran said Sept. 25 that its investigators traveled roughly 100 nautical miles into the South China Sea near Malaysia’s Eastern Outer Port Limits, where the group said it observed Iranian-linked tankers, cargo vessels and bulk carriers alongside Malaysian bunker vessels supplying ships with fuel. UANI described the concentration of ships as a ‘floating city’ supporting Iran’s sanctions-evasion network. . . . ‘After seeing this floating city of ghost tankers with our own eyes, it is clear it is serving as an illicit Malaysia-backed lifeline for the Iranian regime,’ UANI CEO Ambassador Mark D. Wallace said in a Sept. 25 statement. He accused Malaysian entities of providing support that allows Tehran to continue generating revenue despite international efforts to economically isolate the regime. Former Florida Gov. and UANI Chairman Jeb Bush and Wallace called on the Treasury Department to sanction entities associated with Malaysia’s Pengerang petroleum complex as well as Malaysian entities or officials they allege are facilitating the trade.”
“Independent ship-tracking data does not literally show a zero balance sheet, but it does show a closed export gate. United Against Nuclear Iran reported on October 1 that it has not tracked any tanker laden with Iranian crude successfully leaving the Gulf of Oman and avoiding U.S. enforcement since July 12, before the blockade was reinstated.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran Oil Exports Vanish as Regional Flows Surpass Prewar Levels | Iran International
“New tanker-tracking data shows that Iran’s new oil exports have effectively ground to a halt, while crude exports from Arab countries in the region surpassed pre-war levels in the final week of September.”
September LNG Shipments Through Hormuz Hit Highest Since Start of US-Iran War | Reuters
“The number of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to its highest monthly level since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, data from analytics firms, shows, despite persistent security worries and uncertainty.”
US Sanctions Kremlin-Backed Fintech A7 for Allegedly Assisting Iran | Financial Times
“The US Treasury has designated Kremlin-backed fintech company A7 a transnational criminal organisation, accusing it of enabling Iran and its proxy groups to evade western sanctions. The measures announced on Thursday would freeze any assets held by the cross-border payments company in the US and prohibit Americans from doing business with A7 or any subagents acting on its behalf. A7 was established by sanctioned Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor with support from Promsvyazbank, a state-owned Russian bank with close links to the Kremlin’s defence industry, which is also subject to US sanctions.”
US Sanctions Target Iran’s Auto, Rail Sectors as Blockade Chokes Ship Lanes | Reuters
“The Trump administration imposed sanctions on Iran's rail and auto sectors and their foreign suppliers, the Treasury Department said on Thursday, widening its wartime economic campaign to isolate Tehran.”
“Tajikistan announced that it is now receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran, opening a potential new energy source for a country whose fuel supplies have long been dominated by Russia. The deliveries began in late August, Tajikistan's Energy and Water Resources Ministry told the Asia-Plus news agency, following talks between the two countries on expanding cooperation in the oil and gas sector. . . . The move also raises questions about potential US secondary sanctions for doing business with Iran, particularly as Washington has stepped up pressure on Tehran’s oil revenues. US Treasury spokeswoman Gigi O'Connell said the department would not comment on specific allegations of sanctions violations but warned that Iran's petroleum and petrochemical sectors are subject to increased sanctions risk.”
Iran Urges Iraq to Lift Flight Ban amid US Sanctions | Al Jazeera
“Iran called on Iraq to lift remaining flight restrictions caused by US sanctions and fully restore normal air travel between the two countries, even after services partially resumed at one Iraqi airport earlier in the week.”
MILITARY MATTERS & SHIPPING
U.S. Sent More Patriots to Protect Saudi, Qatari Energy Sites | Axios
“The U.S. military in recent weeks sent two additional Patriot missile batteries to protect oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two U.S. officials and one regional source said.”
Trump: Iran Will ‘Either Sign a Very Fair Deal’ or Cease to Exist | The Hill
“President Trump threatened Thursday that Iran will cease to exist if its leaders do not sign a peace deal with the U.S. ‘Now I have to make a decision. They’ll either sign a very fair deal, or they won’t exist any longer,’ Trump told reporters on the South Lawn en route to Oklahoma.”
Iran’s Rhetoric Against UAE Hardens After Netanyahu Visit | Iran International
“Iranian officials and media have sharply condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE, warning Abu Dhabi over its deepening ties with Israel amid renewed tensions over three disputed Persian Gulf islands. Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Thursday condemned Netanyahu’s visit, warning of what it called the ‘very dangerous consequences’ of an Israeli presence in the region. . . . Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, issued a more direct warning to the UAE on Wednesday. ‘Just as hosting US military bases has not brought you security, hosting the butcher of Gaza will not have positive consequences either,’ he wrote on X. ‘Learn from the recent war, stop starting wars and refrain from making baseless claims about the Iranian islands.’”
DIPLOMACY
Iran Offers to Allow Nuclear Inspectors If Sanctions Are Eased | Bloomberg
“Iran’s foreign minister suggested in private talks that his country was willing to restore nuclear inspectors’ access to bombed facilities in exchange for sanctions relief, people familiar with the discussions said, a concession that could help break deadlocked peace talks with the US.”
TERRORISM & PROXY WARS
“U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that if Iran is linked to the copilot who tried to crash an Israel-bound flight, the Islamic Republic would be struck ‘very hard’ for the attempt on the lives of more than 180 people aboard the jet.”
Trump Suggests Flydubai Co-Pilot Is Linked to Iran, “Based on What I’m Hearing” | CBS News
“President Trump on Thursday suggested the FlyDubai co-pilot who allegedly tried to crash a passenger plane en route to Israel is linked to Iran, ‘based on what I’m hearing,’ but did not provide further details.”
“Iran’s Quds Force commander Brig Gen Esmail Qaani has claimed the US withdrawal from Iraq opens the way for Tehran-backed militias to play a greater role in the country’s future, despite the Iraqi government's pledge to bring armed groups under state control.”
Mullin Says US ‘Knew’ Iran Would Try to Attack American Assets in UK | ABC News
“The United States knew Iran or its proxies were going to ‘try and do an attack, possibly on a United States asset in the [United Kingdom],’ Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin said Thursday of the arrest and release of five men near a Royal Air Force base used by the U.S. Mullin told Fox News the U.S. ‘had already been watching’ the situation with British officials and the U.S. was ‘giving them a heads up.’”
“A Department of Energy electrical engineer has been arrested on charges of providing support to the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, including by buying materials for homemade explosives and drones and traveling to Yemen, the Justice Department said Thursday. Ashton Hamed Ellaboudy, 51, of Richland, Washington, was arrested Thursday and is due to make his first court appearance Friday.”
INTEL
25-Year-Old Arab Israeli Arrested, Suspected of Spying for Iran; Indictment Today | Times of Israel
“The police and Shin Bet announce that in recent weeks, they’ve arrested another Israeli citizen on suspicion of spying for Iran. A joint statement names the suspect as Mohammad Halaf, a 25-year-old resident of the northern city of Baqa al-Gharbiya. Halaf is accused of making contact with Iranian agents and carrying out missions on their behalf, in exchange for ‘thousands of shekels.’”
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Executes Afghan National on Espionage Charges, Says Rights Group | Afghanistan International
“Human rights organisation Hengaw reported that Iran executed Tourat Mohammadi, a 42-year-old Afghan national and former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on espionage charges. He was reportedly executed at Karaj Prison on Wednesday, 23 September.”
UN Rapporteur Highlights Systematic Trial Violations Against Iran’s Minorities | IranWire
“Mai Sato, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran, released a report on Thursday, October 1, 2026, detailing the ‘compounding barriers to fair trial guarantees’ faced by ethnic and religious minorities in Iran, particularly in cases resulting in the death penalty.”