TOP STORIES
Trump Pledged No Forever Wars. Now He Risks Forever Talks with Iran | Wall Street Journal
“President Trump came to office promising an end to forever wars. He now finds himself bogged down in talks with Iran with no end in sight. It is a stalemate that favors Tehran’s well-worn playbook of drawing out negotiations and putting off any concessions that cross its redlines, geopolitical analysts said.”
U.S. Says Iran May Swap Ideology for Investment. History Shows Otherwise | New York Times
“As the United States and Iran embark on complicated negotiations toward a peace deal, U.S. officials have described a fundamentally transformed relationship between the two longstanding adversaries. Iran has an opportunity to secure prosperity at home and finally free itself of the vice grip of sanctions, Vice President JD Vance has said, provided it agrees to long-term nuclear limits and rethinks its most critical foreign and military policies. Mr. Vance, who was tasked by President Trump with leading the negotiations, has also said that Iranian pragmatists and hard-liners were warming to the idea that it was time to turn over a new leaf in Iran-U.S. relations. . . . Such a fundamental transformation would not be in keeping with the Iranian government’s habits and instincts, forged over decades. The ideology that swept its Islamic government to power in 1979 remains rooted in opposition to the United States. And Iran’s most powerful economic players today are the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a military force, and semipublic companies that are controlled by the clerical leadership.”
US and Iran Hold Separate Meetings in Qatar and Agree to Continue Discussions | Associated Press
“U.S. and Iranian negotiators met separately on Wednesday with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, with ‘positive progress made,’ and they agreed to continue discussions, host Qatar said. The next meeting will be scheduled ‘at the earliest possible time’ after the funeral of Iran’s previous supreme leader, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Majed al-Ansari, a spokesman for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, said on X. The funeral is set to start Saturday in Tehran.
UANI IN THE NEWS
“In October 1962, Americans learned a sobering lesson about geography and national security. The Soviet Union’s placement of nuclear missiles in Cuba brought a strategic threat to within 90 miles of American shores. For thirteen days, the world confronted the significant possibility of nuclear catastrophe. The Cuban Missile Crisis remains one of the Cold War’s defining moments because it proved that geography is decisive—even for a country often assumed to be shielded by two oceans. Today, Cuba could once again serve as a platform for a similar strategic threat: this time not in the form of missiles, but Iranian drones. Such systems could surveil American military installations, monitor maritime activity in the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits, test U.S. defenses and provide the Islamic Republic of Iran with an intelligence-gathering presence just off the coast of the United States.”
“If the [U.S.–Iran Memorandum of Understanding] holds, the Iranians could receive more than $300 billion through an economic reconstruction fund, sanctions relief, expanded oil exports and unfrozen assets. That is reminiscent of the 2015 nuclear deal but at three times the price. The hefty bill will only get more expensive if the West has to bolster its own defenses in return. Skeptical observers want to know: How much extra security spending will be necessary if Iranian terror groups receive the biggest injection of funds in a generation? . . . What is certain is this: Current spending on defense and intelligence won’t keep pace with a threat that could be trebled—or more—by a richer terrorist regime.”
MILITARY MATTERS & STRAIT OF HORMUZ SITUATION
Hormuz Remains War Zone for Shipping, Unions Say | Iran International
“Shipping employers and unions said they will continue to treat the Strait of Hormuz as a war zone until at least July 9, keeping double pay and refusal rights for covered seafarers despite a fragile US-Iran truce. The groups cited ‘continuing and significant risk to life’ after attacks killed at least 14 seafarers and hit more than 40 ships.”
“Iran’s joint military command warned Thursday that all oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz must use its approved routes or face a ‘forceful response,’ again ratcheting up tensions over a waterway crucial for international energy supplies. . . . It wasn’t immediately clear what sparked the threat from Iran. However, the U.S. military’s Central Command had put out a statement about having a meeting with officials from Mideast nations in Bahrain that said ‘leaders underscored their shared commitment to the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz.’”
Shipping Traffic Consistent Through Strait of Hormuz | CNN
“At least 35 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to MarineTraffic data, as Qatari leaders meet senior US and Iranian officials in Doha. A total of 20 ships entered the Persian Gulf—11 cargo vessels and nine tankers. An additional 15 ships left the gulf, consisting of nine tankers and six cargo vessels. These figures remain in line with the subdued crossing rates seen in recent weeks. Before the war, roughly 110 vessels passed through the strait each day on average.”
Explosive-Laden Drone Hits Iranian Kurdish Opposition Group Camp in Iraq | Reuters
“Iraqi security sources say an explosive-laden drone targeted a camp belonging to an Iranian Kurdish opposition group in the Koysanjaq district, east of Erbil in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, causing a fire at the camp. There was no immediate information on casualties or who was responsible for the attack.”
Shipping Monitor Says Ship Aground near Hormuz Is Shamkhani-Linked Tanker | Iran International
“The foreign ship Iran’s state TV said ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz is the Comoros-flagged tanker ARISTA, part of a US-sanctioned network linked to Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, an Iranian oil shipping magnate and son of Iran’s slain security chief Ali Shamkhani, tanker monitoring group Tanker Trackers said on X. Citing satellite imagery, the group said the vessel had been stuck in the same location since mid-March, north of Iran’s Hormuz Island.”
“After weeks of Iranian missile and drone attacks exposed the vulnerability of major U.S. military bases across the Gulf, the Pentagon is weighing whether decades of relying on large, permanent installations within range of Iranian weapons still makes strategic sense. Defense officials are considering dispersing some capabilities and reassessing parts of the U.S. regional base posture, according to a Wall Street Journal report.”
Iran Warns US, Israel Against Attacks Ahead of Funeral Processions for Khamenei | Reuters
“An Iranian military commander warned the United States and Israel on Thursday against any attack on Iran as it prepares for the state funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in airstrikes on the first day of the war.”
Zamir, Gen. Clearfield Meet to Promote Lebanon Coordination Mechanisms | Jerusalem Post
“IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir met with US Commander of Marine Forces Central Command Lt.-Gen. Joseph Clearfield on Wednesday to promote Lebanon-related coordination mechanisms impacting Israel, the Lebanese Army, and Hezbollah, The Jerusalem Post has learned. A number of Israeli and American officials have been meeting with each other in rapid succession in recent days to move forward the process of the Lebanese Army deploying to new areas in southern Lebanon to ensure that Hezbollah is out of those areas and to permit partial withdrawals from IDF officials.”
DIPLOMACY
US Tries to Talk Iran Out of Tolls as Talks Resume in Doha | Axios
“Witkoff and Kushner have been trying to convey to the Iranians that their demand for tolls could blow up a U.S.-Iran deal that would ultimately be far more lucrative for Iran. ‘The U.S. message to Iran was ‘Think bigger,’ a U.S. official said. The official claimed the sums Iran could generate from developing and selling oil and other resources freely—if the U.S. lifted all sanctions under a deal—‘would be 100 times more valuable to them than using a gangster tactic to try and charge a toll.’ ‘We are pushing them to think bigger about their potential in the context of a broader nuclear and regional non-intervention deal,’ the U.S. official said.”
Inspection of Iran’s Bombed Nuclear Sites ‘Not Allowed’: Parliament Speaker | Al Jazeera
“Inspection of nuclear sites that have been bombed and damaged ‘is not allowed under any circumstances,’ Iran’s parliament speaker and negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said. Speaking with Iran’s Student News Network, Ghalibaf affirmed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has only received access to two sites in Iran, including the Bushehr power plant. ‘The access is only to this extent and we are committed to it,’ he added.”
Vance Says Doha Talks “Going Well” | CNN
“[Trump’s] negotiating from a position where Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed and their conventional military has been destroyed too, and what I notice about the people who are attacking the administration for negotiating is that they’re the very same people who, for example, encouraged us to just go a little bit further and just drop a few more bombs in places like Afghanistan,’ [Vice President Vance] said. ‘Now, the president of the United States maintains a lot of options today in 2026, but if he ever asks you to go and drop bombs, it’s going to be for something specific.’”
Vance Talks Negotiations, Won’t Commit to Not Returning to Full-Fledged War | CBS News
“‘If they try to rebuild that nuclear program, if they refuse to let inspections in, if they . . . resume shooting commercial vessels, which they have stopped for a few days, then obviously the president still has a lot of options on the table,’ Vance said.”
Iran Says Doha MOU Talks Held Without US Delegation | Iran International
“Iran’s deputy foreign minister on Wednesday said meetings in Doha to follow up on the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding were held with Qatari and Pakistani delegations, without the presence of a US delegation. Kazem Gharibabadi added that the trilateral meetings focused in particular on Lebanon and the release of Iran's frozen assets.”
Iran Fires Warning at Trump to ‘Muzzle His Pets’ After Israel Threatens Mojtaba Khamenei | Fox News
“Iran’s foreign minister warned Wednesday that Tehran would respond forcefully to any threat against regime leadership after Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was ‘marked for death.’ ‘The terms of the Islamabad MoU are crystal clear and public for all to see,’ Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X. ‘POTUS has committed the U.S. to muzzling its pets in Tel Aviv. If they ignore their master, Iran will school them,’ he added before warning that any ‘threat against our People and Leadership will receive Immediate Powerful Response.’”
Trump Says the U.S. and Iran Getting Along Very Well | Reuters
“President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the United States was getting along very well with Iran and that recent meetings in Qatar went well. ‘The denuclearization of Iran is moving along well,’ Trump told reporters. ‘They’ve had very good meetings, and we’ll see.’”
PROXY WARS
U.S. Resumes Dollar Transfers to Iraq After Monthslong Suspension | New York Times
“The United States has resumed some air shipments of U.S. dollars to Iraq, several months after it suspended them in a bid to pressure the government to distance itself from Iran, according to two aides to Iraq’s prime minister.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Intensifies Crackdown on Teachers, Jails Union Activists | IranWire
“In the ongoing security and judicial crackdown on educators’ union activists, imprisoned activist Masoud Farhikhteh has been transferred to solitary confinement. Concurrently, Reza Mosalmi, a teachers’ union activist from Hamadan, has been sentenced to a total of four years, one month, and 17 days of discretionary imprisonment.”
Iran Rearrests Environmental Activists Jowkar and Kashani | IranWire
“Hojjat Kermani, a defense attorney, announced the rearrest of environmental activists Houman Jowkar and Sepideh Kashani by security forces. . . . According to the attorney, security forces also arrested Sima Kashani, the sister of Sepideh Kashani.”
UN Rapporteur Says US-Iran Deal Ignores Iranian People | IranWire
“Mai Sato, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran, has criticized the omission of human rights from the recent memorandum of understanding between the Islamic Republic and the United States. She warned that the agreement, in its current form, overlooks the Iranian people and could perpetuate impunity and intensify domestic repression. … The UN Special Rapporteur called for a halt to executions, the release of detainees, guaranteed free access to the internet, and the protection of civic space in Iran, expressing hope that these points will be factored into the final negotiations between Tehran and Washington. . . . She added that she has also contacted US officials to investigate reports of human rights violations during the recent war, but has not received a response so far.”
Turkey’s Tighter Residency Rules Leave More Iranians in Limbo | Iran International
“Turkey’s tougher residency rules are leaving growing numbers of Iranians facing legal uncertainty, financial losses and difficult choices over whether they can remain in a country that was once among their most accessible migration destinations. The Iranian newspaper Shargh reported on Thursday that many Iranians in Turkey have had residency renewals rejected, seen sudden changes to their legal status or, in some cases, been ordered to leave the country.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran Oil Industry Prioritizes Emptying Tanks to Restore Output, Official Says | Iran International
“Iran’s oil industry is prioritizing the rapid sale of crude and emptying storage tanks after production cuts linked to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, the oil export union spokesperson said on Wednesday. Hamid Hosseini said there was enough demand for Iranian oil and that exports were unlikely to wait for letters of credit or a full normalization of banking ties.”
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran’s Pezeshkian Insists Supreme Leader Did Not Bar Negotiations | Al Jazeera
“Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has defended Tehran’s negotiations with the US amid criticism that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei did not sign off on the MoU. In remarks reported by the state news agency IRNA, Pezeshkian said that if Khamenei ‘had ordered not to negotiate, we would have definitely obeyed.’”
Pezeshkian Says He Would Give IRGC 100M Barrels If Needed | Iran International
“Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian defended his administration’s decision to allocate 20 million barrels of oil to the IRGC Aerospace Force, saying he would provide even more if similar circumstances arose again. I’f such conditions arise again, I would put not 20 million barrels, but 100 million barrels at their disposal,’ Pezeshkian said, adding that he was proud of the support. He thanked Iran’s armed forces, security forces, law enforcement and the Basij, saying his administration’s main concern was ‘the people and the military and security forces’ and that defending the armed forces was his duty.”
Is the Deal with Washington Fracturing Iran’s Elite Consensus? | Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
“Two unusual incidents within a day of each other have exposed how deeply contested Tehran’s memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Washington has become inside Iran’s own establishment, just months into Mojtaba Khamenei's tenure as supreme leader. The first challenge came from the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body that oversees the supreme leader. Sixty-three of its 88 members issued a statement on June 29 urging negotiators to hold firm to the ‘red lines’ set by Khamenei. … Hours later, the assembly's secretariat scrambled to clarify that the statement did not represent the body's official position, branding it ‘unusual and unconventional.’ Meanwhile, a day later, state broadcaster IRIB abruptly cut a pre-recorded interview with parliament speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf mid-answer, right as he was addressing the unfreezing of Iranian assets under the MOU. The parliament’s media office noted the tape had been delivered more than two hours before airtime with no prior coordination sought regarding the cut.”
Mass Mournings, 6 Days and 2 Countries: Iran Prepares to Bury Supreme Leader | New York Times
“There are few analogues in history for the size, scale and import of the funeral that Iran’s government is preparing to hold for its slain supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Starting Friday, and running for nearly a week, with ceremonies planned in at least five cities across Iran and Iraq, the funeral is expected to draw tens of millions of people, government officials have said. . . . Iran’s government is seeking to present the funeral as a moment of national unity and shared grief, a display of bureaucratic competence and a show of resistance against an outside enemy. The emblem of the funeral, shared by the official planning body, is Mr. Khamenei’s closed fist alongside a slogan: ‘We must rise.’”
“Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf calls for massive turnout at Ali Khamenei’s funeral to avenge the supreme leader’s death in US-Israeli strikes at the start of the war.”
GULF STATES & IRAN
A Dispute over Opening Hormuz Drives a Wedge into U.S.-Saudi Relations | Wall Street Journal
“More than 100 U.S. military aircraft were taking off from bases and warships across the Middle East as part of an effort to crack open the Strait of Hormuz this past spring when they hit a glitch: Saudi Arabia, whose bases and airspace were critical to the mission, was saying no. The pushback forced the U.S. to abort Project Freedom, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter, ending the military operation to guarantee safe passage for ships that President Trump had launched hours earlier. Incensed, the White House threatened to hold back delivery of interceptors that Saudi Arabia needs to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones, if the kingdom didn’t reverse course, U.S. and Arab officials familiar with the discussions said. Saudi Arabia ultimately backed down, but U.S. officials said at the time that the damage wouldn’t easily be undone. Now, the U.S. is considering reducing its military footprint in the kingdom, according to U.S. officials familiar with the planning process.”
How the Iran War Ignited a Clash Between Trump and the Saudi Crown Prince | New York Times
“Now, as the Trump administration tries to reach agreements with Iran that go beyond the preliminary cease-fire accord announced on June 14, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab nations are pressing for an outcome that would shield them from fallout if Iran, Israel or the United States restart broad hostilities. Given Mr. Trump’s vacillations during the war, the Saudis question whether the Americans would offer any protection or exercise sound judgment in a future conflict. The Saudis became skeptical of Mr. Trump in 2019, when he refused to retaliate against Iran for a drone and missile attack on Saudi oil fields.”
CYBERSECURITY MATTERS
Cal Water Says Cybersecurity Breach by Iranian-Linked Hackers Was Limited | The Mercury News
“An investigation into a June 11 cyberattack claimed by an Iranian-linked hacker group found that hackers accessed one California Water Service customer’s online account using stolen credentials, but did not breach the utility’s internal systems or billing infrastructure, the company announced this week. Cal Water has continued to investigate claims made on June 11 by an Iranian-linked hacker group that it breached Cal Water’s systems throughout the state—including some in Chico.”