TOP STORIES
US and Iran Exchange Fire amid Increasingly Strained Truce | Financial Times
“US Central Command said on Thursday it had shot down five attack drones ‘that posed a clear threat in and near the Strait of Hormuz’ and prevented a sixth drone from launching from Bandar Abbas in southern Iran. Centcom, which oversees US operations against Iran, said Tehran then fired a ballistic missile towards Kuwait in what it called an “egregious ceasefire violation by the Iranian regime.’ Kuwaiti forces intercepted the missile, Centcom said.”
“President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Iran would not get sanctions relief in exchange for giving up their highly enriched uranium. . . . "No, no, not at all. Not sanctions relief, no,’ Trump told PBS News during a short phone call when asked if the current deal would mean that Iran would give up their highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief. He added, ‘They’re gonna give up their highly enriched uranium not for sanctions, relief. No, no, not at all.’”
Trump Threatens Oman in Latest Play to Open the Strait of Hormuz | Politico
“President Donald Trump rejected a plan that would see Oman and Iran jointly charge a toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening harsh consequences for the U.S. ally if it follows through on discussions that have reportedly taken place with Tehran. ‘Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up,’ he told reporters Wednesday at a White House Cabinet meeting. ‘They understand that. They’ll be fine.’”
UANI IN THE NEWS
The High-Seas Black Market That Keeps Iran’s Illicit Oil Flowing | Wall Street Journal
“Between 2023 and 2025, the number of observed ship-to-ship transfers in the EOPL [Eastern Outer Port Limits] more than doubled, from 280 to 679, according to United Against Nuclear Iran, or UANI, a U.S.-based advocacy group that uses satellite data to track them, which cited strong Chinese demand. ‘This is a critical logistics node,’ said Charlie Brown, a former U.S. naval officer based in Singapore who works for UANI. ‘China cannot get its oil from Iran without going through the EOPL. . . . [S]anctions alone don’t stop the ships.”
Interview with UANI Senior Advisor Norman Roule | ILTV
“For the [Trump] administration, the view is that negotiations will allow it to continue to maintain economic pressure, which is eroding the regime’s hold on power, while at the same time avoiding hostilities, which do not have a strategic purpose.”
Interview with UANI Research Director Daniel Roth | i24
“President Trump’s sangfroid in terms of pressure and timing has been of a piece when reacting to reporters and put the pressure back on the Iranians . . . to signal he’s doing this in the national security interest of America.”
Interview with UANI Research Director Daniel Roth | NTD
“I think President Trump is very wise to signal to the Iranians that they have indeed miscalculated in terms of timing. He’s made it very clear that the midterms are not going to affect how he approaches this crucial Iran issue right now. What’s important to him is America’s long-term national security and he’s not going to strike some crazy deal just for the sake of headlines or . . . politics in November.”
MILITARY MATTERS
Iran Is Quickly Unearthing Its Huge Missile Arsenal, CNN Analysis Shows | CNN
“Iran is regaining access to vast quantities of missiles stored in underground facilities, new satellite imagery analyzed by CNN shows, casting doubt on US President Donald Trump’s claims of having all but obliterated Tehran’s arsenal. During the war, Israeli-US strikes put many of these complexes out of commission by blocking their entry points, trapping a large portion of Iran’s launchers and crippling its ability to fire missiles. Now, using just bulldozers and dump trucks, Iran is undoing the effects of a strategy that involved an enormous amount of Israeli-US firepower. The Pentagon stands by the success of its campaign.”
109 Vessels Have Been Redirected by U.S. Blockade on Strait of Hormuz | CBS
“The U.S. blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has turned around 109 commercial vessels heading into or leaving ports in Iran, according to U.S. Central Command. That total is an increase by one vessel since Tuesday’s update.”
DIPLOMACY
Iran State TV Says Draft Deal with US Would Reopen Hormuz Shipping, End Naval Blockade | Reuters
“Iran's state TV said it had obtained a draft of an initial, unofficial framework for a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States on ending their conflict. Under the framework, Iran would restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, while the United States would withdraw military forces from Iran's vicinity and lift a naval blockade. State TV said the framework, which excludes military vessels and envisages Iran managing ship traffic through the strait in cooperation with Oman, was not yet finalised and that Tehran would take no steps without ‘tangible verification.’ It added that if a final agreement was reached within 60 days, it could be approved as a binding U.N. Security Council resolution.”
White House Dismisses Outline of ‘Unofficial’ Iran Deal | New York Times
“Throwing cold water on an Iranian state broadcaster’s report about a preliminary peace deal, President Trump signaled during a cabinet meeting today that he was open to lengthy negotiations with Iran, despite domestic pressure.”
“Speaking on the sidelines of a security forum in Russia’s capital, the Deputy Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Bagheri Kani, said indirect negotiations with Washington continued, but he renewed the regime’s insistence that the issue of its enriched uranium stockpile wasn’t yet on the agenda.”
Trump Opposes Russia or China Taking Iran’s Highly Enriched Uranium | CNBC
“President Donald Trump on Wednesday poured cold water on the prospect of Iran transferring its store of highly enriched uranium to Russia or China as part of any deal to end the war with the U.S. ‘No, I wouldn’t be comfortable’ with that arrangement, Trump said during a Cabinet meeting at the White House. . . . He also said he would not accept a short-term deal giving Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil-shipping route whose tanker traffic has been choked off amid the war.”
Trump Says US ‘Not Satisfied’ with Iran Deal Yet | BBC
“US President Donald Trump has said he is ‘not satisfied’ yet with the terms of the deal being negotiated with Iran. He said Tehran was ‘very much intent’ on reaching an agreement to end the conflict, but added ‘so far they haven't gotten there,’ repeating Washington's willingness to resume strikes if one is not reached.”
Trump Says Deal on Iran Has ‘Got to Be Perfect’ | Associated Press
“Saying ‘I’m not sure we should make the deal’ on Iran if additional countries don’t join the Abraham Accords—the U.S.-brokered agreements from Trump’s first term aimed at normalizing relations with Israel—Trump said he’s ‘requesting strongly’ that others, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar sign on. But asked by reporters at the Cabinet meeting if an Iran deal were contingent on that act, Trump added, ‘I don’t want to say that.’ Trump also said that, while he felt a ‘good deal’ with Iran could be achieved now, he preferred ‘a great deal,’ later saying the agreement must be even better than that. ‘It’s got to be perfect,’ Trump said. ‘I didn’t do this to get a crummy agreement.’”
Trump Doubles Down That Midterms Don’t Affect His Iran Strategy | AP
“The president suggested that Iranian leaders think upcoming U.S. elections give them leverage over Trump because of his lagging approval ratings. If so, they’re flat wrong, Trump said. ‘They thought they were gonna out-wait me. You know, ‘We’ll out-wait him. He’s got the midterms,’’ Trump said. ‘I don’t care about the midterms.’”
Trump Sent Netanyahu, Regional Leaders Draft Agreement with Iran | Israel Hayom
“US President Donald Trump sent several leaders in the region, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the text of a draft memorandum with Iran for their comments. The text was sent over the past day and was discussed, among other things, in the Trump-Netanyahu call last night. It is still unclear whether this is a text that the Iranians have also accepted or the latest American proposal, but it is a step that could indicate movement toward understandings with Iran. . . . According to the diplomatic sources, although the details of the nuclear issue are supposed to be discussed during the negotiations stage, 30 days after the memorandum is signed, the United States insisted that Iran provide a written commitment to hand over its enriched uranium.”
Doubts Deepen over Khamenei’s Role in Tehran’s US Talks | Iran International
“A source close to the Tehran-Washington negotiations told Iran International there are doubts over whether Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the Islamic Republic’s negotiating team are fully coordinated with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The source said there were serious ambiguities over how much Khamenei knows about the talks and the extent of the negotiating team’s understanding with the Trump administration.”
IRAN’S PROXIES & IRAQ
Iraq’s Moqtada Al Sadr Announces Integration of Armed Faction Into Iraq State Forces | The National
“Iraqi Shiite cleric and former militia leader Moqtada Al Sadr on Wednesday announced the ‘
‘complete separation’ of his armed faction, Saraya Al Salam, and its integration into the country's state forces. The announcement comes at a time of increasing pressure on the Iraqi government to bring armed groups under state control, a step that the new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi has pledged to pursue. . . . Mr Al Zaidi was quick to welcome the announcement. ‘In this context, we call upon all armed factions to follow the same responsible national path and operate under the umbrella of the state and its official institutions in order to guarantee the protection of Iraq,’ he said.”
HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Expands Restrictions on Distribution of News Content by International Media Outlets | AP
“Iran has expanded restrictions on distribution of news content from the country, directing international news outlets to place restrictions on use of their content by Israeli media. . . . The instructions were sent to a number of news organizations, including The Associated Press, from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, which oversees media activity. . . . Under the new measures, international news outlets are required to say that the content in question cannot be used by Israeli media, and also Farsi-language TV stations based outside Iran. For years, Iran has banned international media from sharing some material with BBC Persian, VOA Persian, Manoto TV and Iran International at the risk of having their operations shut down in the country.”
Lifting of Internet Restrictions Reveals Iranians’ Anger over Food Inflation | Guardian
“The partial lifting of internet restrictions in Iran has revealed a rising tide of anger about food price inflation as ordinary Iranians decry annual price increases of 308% for vegetable oil, 190% for chicken, and 170% for rice. . . . ‘Everything is so expensive. It has become a disaster,’ wrote one user on social media. ‘You leave the market with a broken heart after spending all your savings. It is unbearable. We have no patience left to lead a normal life.’”
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Khamenei Warns Against Division amid US Negotiations | Iran International
“Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei urged lawmakers not to turn political differences into division, in a message to parliament as its speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, leads Tehran’s negotiating team in talks with the United States.
Iran’s Ultra-Hardliners Lash Out at Negotiators over US Talks | Financial Times
“Iran’s ultra-hardliners have hit out at the country’s negotiators over a potential deal with the US, exposing divisions among lawmakers over how far Tehran should compromise with Washington in order to end the months-long conflict. Influential members of the ultra-conservative Paydari faction, who occupy seats in parliament and prominent positions at state broadcasters, have insisted Iran retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and refuse to make concessions over its nuclear programme, describing these as ’red lines.’ They have criticised parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a longtime political rival who has been leading the negotiations, claiming that he has acted beyond the mandate given by new supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.”