TOP STORIES
Iran Strikes Delayed as Trump Aides and Israel Raise Concerns | Axios
President Trump is delaying a decision on striking Iran as the White House consults internally and with allies about the timing for such an operation and whether it would meaningfully destabilize the regime, according to five U.S., Israeli and Arab sources with knowledge of the situation. The military option remains firmly on the table, but Trump's decision to pause has exposed deep uncertainty—inside the administration and among allies—about the risks of a strike that punishes Iran while inviting major retaliation. . . . While a strike does not appear imminent at the moment, a U.S. source familiar with the situation told Axios that “everyone knows the president keeps his finger over the button.” . . . U.S. sources said Trump is still open for diplomacy with Iran, but wants to get a clear commitment from Iran’s leader that a serious deal is possible. “Eventually the Iranian regime will go down unless the supreme leader speaks directly to [Trump]. He doesn't trust that anyone else in their system has the authority to actually negotiate,” a source said.
Iran Protests Appear to Slow Under Weight of Brutal Crackdown | Guardian
Iran’s nationwide protest movement appeared to have slowed on Thursday under the weight of a brutal crackdown by authorities that has left thousands dead and put tens of thousands in prison. In Tehran, Iranians reported relative calm on the streets as the sound of gunfire faded and fires were extinguished—a marked contrast from the weeks before when large crowds confronted security forces. . . . Rights groups expressed concerns about forced confessions among arrested protesters, as state media showed the hardliner chief justice, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, personally questioning detainees. . . . Footage broadcast on Thursday showed Ejei interrogating women, one of whom stood accused of sending a message to the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Another woman, accused of dropping concrete blocks on security forces, said as Ejei interrogated her: “I don’t know what happened, why I did something so foolish.”
Pentagon Moving Carrier Strike Group Toward Middle East amid Tensions with Iran | The Hill
The Pentagon on Thursday said it is moving a carrier strike group from the South China Sea toward the Middle East as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to rise. . . . The movement of the carrier strike group—which includes fighter jets, guided missile destroyers and at least one attack submarine—is expected to take about a week, a source told NewsNation.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Israel Watches Iran Protests Closely, but Is Wary of Intervening | New York Times
Israelis would cheer if the Iranian regime were to fall. Yet former officials and analysts say that the Israeli leadership is unlikely to do much to try to precipitate a regime change, seeing the Iranian government as far from the brink of collapse and the current protests as insufficient to push it to that point. Israel is unlikely to attack Iran unless it is invited into a U.S.-led operation, or unless Iran attacks Israel first, they say. . . . Both [the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij] are highly motivated to defend the existing power structure because their fates are tied to that of the government, which has brutalized the Iranian people for years, said [UANI Senior Advisor] Zohar Palti, formerly the head of the Mossad’s intelligence directorate. “If the regime changes, they’re dead,” he added. “That’s the reason they’re killing people in the streets.”
UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi Discusses the Iran Protests | Times Radio
“The regime has gone into full brutality mode. It’s only going to get worse.” Iranian law demands the 800 protesters whose executions were postponed be tortured before their deaths, says director of IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran, Kasra Aarabi.
The Fog of Trump: How Unpredictability Keeps Iran Guessing | Daily Wire
There are mixed signals, and according to Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran, that is precisely the point. “I think what you have seen over the last few days has been a concerted psyop, or psychological operation, that has been meant to confuse the decision-making of the Islamic Republic of Iran while the U.S. prepares for a military strike and moves assets into place,” Brodsky told The Daily Wire.
A limited, targeted US strike focused on regime security assets would not unify the population behind the government. Instead, it would highlight the regime’s isolation and vulnerability, and signal that mass repression carries tangible international costs. The objective should not be full-scale war, which is unnecessary. A calibrated strike could disrupt key security forces, intensify internal fractures, and generate psychological momentum for change driven by the Iranian people themselves. It would puncture the myth of regime invincibility, reinforce the costs of repression, and remind elites and security personnel that blind loyalty to a collapsing system is increasingly dangerous.
Forced Confession Fears as Iran Chief Justice Interrogates Protesters | Agence France Presse
. . . US-based group United Against Nuclear Iran in 2024 described Ejei, who has vowed fast-track trials for those arrested, as a "ruthless enforcer of the Islamic republic with no regard for human rights".
The tanker in question is a 27-year-old vessel that German media describe as a “zombie tanker”: the ship has repeatedly changed its name and identification details, and German border guards suspected that it was sailing under a false flag and with a forged registration number. The vessel is known to be using a fake IMO number, 1095337. According to German experts, Tavian is in fact the tanker Tia, previously registered under IMO number 9147447. If so, it is one of the oldest large oil tankers still in operation. The tanker Tia is included on the U.S. sanctions list, as well as that of the organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS
Trump Was Told Attack on Iran Wouldn’t Guarantee Collapse of Regime | Wall Street Journal
President Trump was advised that a large-scale strike against Iran was unlikely to make the government fall and could spark a wider conflict, U.S. officials said, and for now will monitor how Tehran handles protesters before deciding on the scope of a potential attack. The U.S. would need more military firepower in the Middle East both to launch a large-scale strike, protect American forces in the region and allies like Israel should Iran retaliate, the advisers told Trump, the officials said. . . . Trump, without making a final decision on which action he would take, asked for military assets to be in place should he order a big attack, the officials said.
Mossad Director Visits U.S. for Iran Consultations | Axios
The director of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, David Barnea, arrived in the U.S. on Friday morning for talks on the situation in Iran . . . Barnea is expected to meet in Miami with White House envoy Steve Witkoff, who is managing the direct channel of communication between the U.S. and Iran. . . . Barnea's trip follows a phone call on Wednesday between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the Iran crisis. During the call, Netanyahu asked Trump to hold off on military action against Iran to give Israel more time to prepare for potential Iranian retaliation. An Israeli source said that in addition to concerns about retaliation, the current U.S. plan includes strikes on security force targets in Iran, but is not seen by Israel as strong enough to meaningfully destabilize the regime. . . . When he reached out to Witkoff, Araghchi proposed a meeting and the resumption of nuclear negotiations. The Israeli government is concerned the Iranians will use such negotiations to buy time and relief from the U.S. pressure.
US Envoy to UN: US Stands by Iranian People, All Options on Table | Reuters
The United States stands by the “brave people of Iran,” and President Donald Trump "has made it clear all options are on the table to stop the slaughter," U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told the U.N. Security Council on Thursday. . . . “President Trump is a man of action, not endless talk like we see at the United Nations. He has made it clear all options are on the table to stop the slaughter,” Waltz told the Security Council meeting, which Washington had requested. . . . “Everyone in the world needs to know that the regime is weaker than ever before, and therefore is putting forward this lie because of the power of the Iranian people in the streets. They are afraid. They’re afraid of their own people,” Waltz said.
PROTESTS AND HUMAN RIGHTS
A hard-line cleric leading Friday prayers in Iran's capital demanded the death penalty for protesters detained in a nationwide crackdown and directly threatened U.S. President Donald Trump, showing the hard-line rage gripping the Islamic Republic after the demonstrations. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami’s sermon carried by Iranian state radio sparked chants from those gathered for prayers, including: “Armed hypocrites should be put to death!”
How Iran’s Regime Retook the Streets | Financial Times
With little reliable information escaping Iran’s internet curbs, and misinformation flooding into the gap, establishing exactly what happened across a nation of 90mn is nearly impossible. But in phone interviews, smuggled messages from encrypted communications set up by activists and stark testimonies collected by human rights activists, a bleak picture is emerging. They depict a bitter national convulsion as protesters, armed agitators and the authoritarian government’s security forces battled each other for control of the streets. They provide some details of a violent, far-reaching response by the regime, an unprecedented crackdown that could prove akin to the Islamic republic’s own Tiananmen Square moment. They also show a precarious moment of great anticipation, “that the US and Israel will be taking some sort of action,” said one resident.
Three from Same Family Killed During Protests in Iran | Iran International
Three members of the same family were killed after their car came under fire from Iranian security forces in the city of Karaj, west of Tehran, during protests on Jan. 9, Iran International has learned. The victims were identified as Bijan Mostafavi, a retired education worker, his wife Zahra Bani Amerian, a retired social security employee, and their 19-year-old son, Danial Mostafavi, a university student, a source close to the family said.
A Canadian Citizen Has ‘Died in Iran at the Hands of the Iranian Authorities’ | Global News
A Canadian citizen was killed in Iran “at the hands of the Iranian authorities,” Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said as the protests against the Iranian regime continue to intensify along with Tehran’s crackdown.
Over 6,000 Sought Care for Eye Injuries in Tehran During Protests | Iran International
More than 6,000 people with eye injuries have sought treatment at a major eye clinic in Tehran over the past few days following recent protests, the head of the Munich Eye Center told Iran International.
Iran Plans to Extend Internet Blackout into Spring—IranWire | Iran International
Iran plans to maintain its nationwide internet blackout until at least the Iranian New Year in late March, IranWire reported on Thursday, citing media activists briefed by the government spokesperson.
At the border crossing from Iran into Iraqi Kurdistan, the stern face of Iran’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, peers down at the trickle of Iranians leaving the territory. . . . Inside the arrivals hall, we find dozens of men, women and children—many arriving to visit family on the Iraqi side of the border. No-one we met said they were fleeing Iran because of the recent protests and government crackdown, but one man—who asked us to hide his identity—told us security forces had shot him during a protest in central Iran last Friday. “I was hit in the face by seven pellet rounds,” he said, pointing out several weals and bruises on his face. “They struck above my eyelid, on my forehead, my cheek, my lip, under my ear and along my jaw. I had to use a razor blade to cut one of the pellets out.” He told us he was too afraid of being arrested to get medical help, and that others injured during the government crackdown on protestors were also avoiding treatment, out of fear that security forces would arrive and arrest them.
Iran Authorities Demanding Large Sums for Return of Protesters’ Bodies, BBC Told | BBC News
Families of people killed in the protests in Iran have told the BBC that the authorities are demanding large sums of money to return their bodies for burial. . . . in Tehran, the family of a Kurdish seasonal construction worker went to collect his body, only to be told they must pay a billion tomans ($7,000; £5,200) to receive it. The family told the BBC that they could not afford the fee and were forced to leave without their son's body. A construction worker in Iran typically earns less than $100 a month.
Under Iran's Internet Blackout, SpaceX’s Starlink is a Lifeline — If It Can Stay Online | NBC News
As Iran’s national internet blackout stretches to its second week, the satellite internet service Starlink has become a crucial lifeline for many citizens to connect with the outside world—and one that the government appears to be trying to shut down. That’s pushing some Iranians to get creative with how they use the service.
DIPLOMACY
Asked in an onstage interview at the Israeli-American Council conference in Florida if he thinks a US military strike against Iran is likely, Witkoff responded, “I hope there’s a diplomatic resolution. I really do.” The US envoy said a diplomatic agreement with Iran would address four issues: “(1) nuclear enrichment, (2) missiles—they have to cut back on their inventory; (3) the actual [nuclear] material that they have, which is roughly 2000 kilograms enriched anywhere between 3.67 percent and 60%; and (4) the proxies.” He suggested that Iran may be willing to compromise on all four issues because its economy is in such dire straits. “If they want to come back to the league of nations, we can solve those four problems diplomatically, then that would be a great resolution. The alternative is a bad one,” he said. Asked if he has a message to the people of Iran who want the regime to fall, Witkoff responded, “They’re incredibly courageous people, and we stand with you.”
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
US Sanctions Iranian Officials, Bankers amid Crackdown on Protesters | Politico
The U.S. lobbed new sanctions against several Iranian entities and people allegedly tied to Iran’s crackdown on protesters Thursday as international pressure on the country’s regime grows. . . . The new sanctions hit Iran’s Fardis Prison, where the State Department said “women have endured cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment,” as well as several Iranian security officials, including Supreme Council for National Security Secretary Ali Larijani. In addition, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control designated 18 groups and people as part of a clandestine “shadow banking” network allegedly run by Bank Melli. That includes three senior officials from Tejarat Hermes Energy Qeshm, which Treasury called “a commercial front company” based in the United Arab Emirates.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Graham Contradicts Trump on Iran Executions Stopping | The Hill
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) says the Iranian regime is still killing protesters at an alarming rate, contradicting President Trump’s statement Wednesday that Iran has stopped indiscriminate executions of anti-government demonstrators. “Every indication that I’ve seen says that the Iranian regime’s killing of protesters I still very much in full swing. The death toll is mounting by the hour. Hoping that help is on the way,” Graham wrote in a post on the social platform X.
US Senator Rejects Reports Trump Ruled Out Iran Strike | Iran International
US Senator Lindsey Graham said on Thursday that recent media reports suggesting President Donald Trump had ruled out military action against Iran were inaccurate. . . . “The circumstances around the necessary, decisive action to be taken against the Iranian regime have nothing to do with President Trump’s will or determination,” Graham wrote. “Nothing could be further from the truth,” he added.
EUROPE & IRAN
European Airlines Continue to Avoid Iran and Iraq Despite Airspace Reopening | Reuters
European airlines like Wizz Air, Lufthansa and British Airways dodged Iraqi and Iranian airspace on Thursday, according to flight tracking websites, opting instead for routes over Afghanistan and central Asia in an effort to mitigate risks associated with the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in Iran and the Middle East.
CHINA & IRAN
China Urges Restraint, Dialogue in Call with Iran Foreign Minister | Iran International
China’s foreign minister called for dialogue and restraint in resolving disputes in a phone call with his Iranian counterpart on Thursday, according to a readout from China’s state-run Xinhua news agency.