Iraq 

U.S. And Coalition Forces Were Attacked At Ain Al-Assad Airbase 

On December 6, three days after U.S. airstrikes in Iraq killed five Iran-backed militants as they were preparing to launch one-way attack drones at U.S. positions, the ‘Islamic Resistance in Iraq,’ an umbrella group comprised of several prominent Iran-backed militias, launched a one-way attack drone at Ain Al-Assad Airbase in the Al-Anbar province of western Iraq. The drone, which detonates on impact, didn’t cause material damage or casualties on this occasion.  

On December 8, 14 Katyusha rockets were fired at the U.S. Embassy compound in the highly securitized Green Zone. It was the first attack on the compound since the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. 

The U.S.’s defensive posture is geared towards limited retaliatory strikes, rather than deterrence. Since October 17, the U.S. has directed five retaliatory or self-defense airstrikes in response to more than 78 attacks launched against it. Until the Iran-backed militias perceive the risk of harsh consequences for their military escalation vis-à-vis the U.S., their effort to evict the 2,500 U.S. troops from Iraq, present in the country on a counterterrorism mission, will continue. The Iran-backed militias in Iraq will probably also increase political pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Sudani, a political ally of the Iran-backed militias, to move him to adopt their anti-American stance.  

Israel and the Palestinian Territories 

Israeli Assault Advances To Cities In Southern Gaza; Operations In The North Continue 

After the initial aerial assault, followed by a ground offensive focused in northern Gaza, the IDF pressed its campaign into southern Gaza, with a focus on the city of Khan Younis. As part of the intelligence operations underway to target Hamas leadership, thousands of captured Hamas operatives have been transferred back to Israel for interrogation. Hamas’ Gaza-based leader, Yayha Sinwar; Mohammed Deif, chief of Hamas’ armed wing; and his deputy, Marwan Issa are believed to have fled south during the heavy bombing in northern Gaza. 

The Israeli military warned civilians to evacuate designated combat zones, setting up safe corridors to evacuate while closing off other areas. The Salah Al-Din Road, the main highway leading from Khan Younis to northern Gaza, was closed down. According to satellite imagery, the IDF moved tanks and armored personnel carriers towards Khan Younis on and alongside this road and has set up fortifications alongside the road. In an effort to slow the Israeli advance, Hamas has deployed improvised explosive devices (IED) and anti-personnel mines. 

By December 5, Major General Yaron Finkelman, commander of the IDF’s Southern Command, said that the IDF is “in the heart of Jabaliya, in the heart of Shujaiya, and now also in the heart of Khan Younis." Close-quarter combat intensified in each of these densely-populated urban and suburban areas, as IDF soldiers engaged in clearing operations, going house to house in search of Hamas terrorists hiding among civilians. In Jabaliya, infantry and commando units raided Hamas’ general security headquarters and found weapons, equipment, and intelligence. Intense aerial bombing softened targets in Khan Younis, the coastal enclave’s second largest city located in southern Gaza, in preparation for the ground offensive. Khan Younis is expected to be where Sinwar and other high command are hiding. The IDF will likely continue the ground offensive further south towards Rafa, another Hamas stronghold at the border with Egypt. Hamas targets in Rafa have already come under aerial strikes in preparation for these operations. 

Statements by Israeli military officials indicate that since beginning combat operations in southern Gaza, fighting has intensified in terms of quantity of enemy encounters and volume of fire. Approximately 6,000 Hamas fighters are believed to have been killed, with thousands of others wounded, leaving the terrorist group with an estimated 25,000 potential combatants. The IDF has degraded 10 of 24 Hamas battalions at the midlevel of command. 

According to a former Israeli military intelligence official, Michael Milshtein, about one-third of Gaza remains out of IDF control. Some of these areas are heavily fortified and have extensive underground tunnel systems, which not only function to protect Hamas leadership but are also used to conduct hit-and-run attacks against Israeli forces. The IDF has destroyed around 500 of the 800 tunnel shafts discovered to date. Israeli army engineers use an explosive gel to explode the tunnel infrastructure and have begun pumping seawater into the tunnels to flood them. 

Hamas Rocket Fire From Gaza Decreases But Continues; Hits Elementary School in Tel Aviv 

The quantity of rockets launched from Gaza into Israel has steadily decreased since Israel commenced air, land, and sea operations, going from thousands per day at the beginning of the war to dozens more recently. Of the estimated 30,000 rockets Hamas had in its arsenal before the war, the terrorist group is believed to have launched about 11,500. 

On December 5, 15 rockets were fired into Israel, one of which impacted an elementary school in Tel Aviv, causing material damage but no injuries to the students who had sought shelter. Hamas fighters have blended into areas the Israeli military referred to as “humanitarian zones,” from where they have fired rockets at Israel. The Israeli military published satellite photo evidence showing that the attacks came from Al-Mawasi, a destination to which people fleeing the fighting were directed by the IDF. 

Israeli Military Raids Refugee Camp In The West Bank, Exchanges Fire With Terrorists 

On December 8, Israel’s military said it conducted counterterrorism operations in the West Bank. During the raid of the Al-Fara refugee camp, several terrorists opened fire on the IDF with M-16 rifles. Among those killed in the exchange was a local commander of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, the armed offshoot of Fatah. Two civilians were also caught in the crossfire and killed. Israel’s military noted that it apprehended two high-value targets. 

Lebanon and Hezbollah 

Israel Conducts Retaliatory Airstrikes Against Vital Hezbollah Targets In Southern Lebanon 

Hezbollah has also continued conducting aerial attacks on northern Israel. On December 4, Hezbollah took responsibility for nine attacks against Arab Al-Aramshe, where the IDF is positioned, and civilian areas in northern Israel, including Matat, Tel Hai, Shtula, and Kiryat Shmona. In total, the terrorist organization is thought to have directed over 1,000 attacks against Israel since Hamas’ terrorist attacks on October 7. Hezbollah has as many as 100,000 rockets in its arsenal. 

In response to the persistent rocket fire into northern Israel, Israel carried out airstrikes against several vital Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon on December 4. It struck an operational headquarters, a weapons storage warehouse, and other infrastructure used by Hezbollah. The IDF also hit rocket launch sites, while sustained cross-border artillery fire rained down on Hezbollah positions. Hezbollah probably intends to convey the image that it is supporting Hamas, while taking measures to prevent more drastic escalation vis-à-vis Israel. The scale and pace of Israeli military operations in Gaza likely has a deterrent effect on Hezbollah. 

Syria 

Israel Kills Two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Members At Sayyida Zeinab 

Located near the southern suburbs of Damascus, Sayyida Zeinab is an Shia shrine that doubles as an operational center for Hezbollah and other bad actors aligned with Hezbollah and the IRGC. The shrine is believed to be the site of drone training courses, tunnel systems, and military assets. A Syria-based war monitor, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, confirmed Iranian media reports, which had said two IRGC operatives—Mohammed Ali Ataei Shoorcheh and Panah Taghizadeh—had been killed, adding that “two Syrian fighters working with Hezbollah” had also been killed in the strikes.