TOP STORIES
War with Iran Has ‘Only Just Begun,’ Hegseth Says | Politico
Top Pentagon officials on Wednesday suggested that the Iran war could extend into a longer conflict—saying the fighting is “far from over”—even as they declined to explain what ultimate victory might look like.
NATO Air Defenses Shoot Down Iranian Missile Headed Toward Turkey | New York Times
A ballistic missile fired from Iran was shot down by NATO air and missile defenses in the eastern Mediterranean while heading toward Turkish airspace, Turkey’s defense ministry said on Wednesday. The missile had flown over Iraq and Syria, according to a ministry statement posted on social media. It did not say what the missile’s target was believed to be.
Pentagon Names Four of Six US Soldiers Killed in Iranian Strike on Kuwait Base | Guardian
The US Department of Defense on Tuesday identified four of the six American soldiers who were killed Sunday during a drone strike on a US base in Kuwait. Donald Trump said “there will likely be more” service members killed “before it ends.” The soldiers were identified as Capt Cody Khork, 35; Sgt Nicole Amor, 39; Sgt Declan Coady, 20; and Sgt Noah Tietjens, 42.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Take Wartime Lead, Ensuring Harder Line, Sources Say | Reuters
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have tightened their grip on wartime decision‑making despite the loss of top commanders, senior sources say, driving a hardline strategy that is propelling Tehran's drone‑and‑missile campaign across the region. . . . The choice of the next supreme leader, after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death on Saturday, could further cement their role, said Kasra Aarabi, head of research on the Guards at United Against Nuclear Iran, a U.S.-based policy organisation. Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, widely seen as a likely candidate, has very close ties with the Guards, exercising significant control over them and enjoying extensive support, including from more radical junior ranks. “If the conflict suddenly stops and the regime survives, we can be certain the Guards will have an even more important role,” said Aarabi.
Who Is Mojtaba Khamenei, Frontrunner to Be Iran's Supreme Leader? | Reuters
"He has strong constituency and support within the IRGC, in particular amongst the younger radical generations," said Kasra Aarabi, head of researching the IRGC at United Against Nuclear Iran, a U.S.-based policy organisation. "So if Mojtaba is alive, there is a high chance that he will succeed (his father)," he said, describing Mojtaba as already operating as a "mini supreme leader".
UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi Discusses Mojtaba Khamenei | Sky News
Aarabi: “Who is Mojtaba Khamenei—tipped to be next in line for supreme leader? Think of him as his father on steroids. He’s certainly no MBS.”
Brodsky: “[The Iranian] system’s grand strategy is premised on three principles: First is anti-Americanism, second is the eradication of Israel, and third is the export of the Islamic Revolution. Those pillars are not going to change. The Islamic Republic has no interest in a better relationship with the United States. It’s not going to change its view of Israel as long as there’s a like-minded successor in Ali Khamenei’s chair. That’s the reality. There are no happy endings with this regime in power, sadly, given its ideology.”
From Airstrikes to Aftermath: The Iran Question | UANI Senior Advisor Saeid Golkar for Euronews
The intervention has already reshaped Iran's political calendar. But unless the United States and Israel pair military pressure with a credible transition concept, they risk the worst outcome: a wounded regime that survives, radicalises, and rebuilds around revenge, repression, and a faster sprint toward nuclear weapons.
Less than two months after the Islamic Republic killed thousands of Iranians who opposed the regime during a nationwide uprising, the country faces another existential crisis. On 28th February, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military strike against Iran, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, along with more than 40 senior commanders from Iran’s military and security institutions. The strikes also targeted strategic facilities connected to Iran’s nuclear enrichment and missile programmes, significantly weakening the regime’s long-term military capabilities.
UANI Policy Director Jason M. Brodsky Discusses Leadership Succession in Iran | i24
“With this [interim leadership] council, I view more continuity than change. It’s really a placeholder or caretaker role . . . but there are other players on the field as well who are exercising significant authority in the Islamic Republic, like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Parliament, who’s a former IRGC commander, who’s been really liaising with the Armed Forces. And you have Ali Larijani, who’s the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who’s been also playing a key role. So now the decision-making has become more diffused since Ayatollah Khamenei’s demise, because when he was alive, everyone knew where the buck stopped and there was one address. But now there are multiple different players.”
Aarabi: “We saw the deputy leader of the Green Party attend a pro–Islamic regime rally in London, 24 hours before the Green Party won a seat in Parliament. . . . This is the classic Islamist-Left alliance. People will say it’s naivete—the Islamists know exactly what they’re doing.”
“If Mojtaba does become supreme leader, you will see him being packaged in this manner,” predicts Jason Brodsky, Policy Director at the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) think tank. “If he is indeed elected leader, Mojtaba will not be the MBS of Iran's regime. He will likely continue to carry the mantle of his father's hardline legacy as he's been marinating in it for years and was propelled by it,” he explained on X, “his career is soaked in blood and he's been marinating in Khomeinist thinking his entire life.” According to UANI’s Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi, Mojtaba fought in the 27th Mohammad Rasulullah Division under the leadership of “the IRGC’s Ahmad Motevaselian, a profoundly anti-Semitic individual and one of the founders of Lebanese Hezbollah,” and as part of the Habib Battalion, “made up of the most radical right Islamists, most of whom would later form the core of the regime’s security and intelligence bodies.”
MILITARY/INTEL MATTERS & REGIME CHANGE
U.S. Sinks Iranian Warship with Submarine Torpedo | Wall Street Journal
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the Iranian ship was sailing in the Indian Ocean when it was struck by a U.S. torpedo. He described the attack as “quiet death” and said it marked the first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II.
Iran Targets Headquarters of Iranian Kurdish Forces in Iraq | BBC News
Iran's military has said it has targeted the headquarters of Iranian Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, stepping up strikes on Kurdish regions in both Iran and Iraq. In a statement quoted by Iranian state media, the military said it attacked “Kurdish groups opposed to the revolution in Iraqi Kurdistan with three missiles.” Tehran is intensifying its attacks on Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq amid speculation that US President Donald Trump wants them to join the fight against Iran, as US and Israeli strikes continue.
IDF Says Air Force Destroyed Secretive Iranian Nuclear Site Near Tehran | Times of Israel
The Israeli Air Force destroyed a secretive Iranian nuclear site on the outskirts of Tehran earlier today, the military says. In a press conference, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin says at the partially-underground facility, called “Minzadehei,” a group of nuclear scientists “worked secretly to develop capabilities required for nuclear weapons.”
Pentagon Eyes Ukrainian Interceptor Drones to Counter Iran | Financial Times
The Pentagon and at least one Gulf government are in talks to buy Ukrainian-made interceptors to fend off attacks by Iranian drones, according to industry figures in Ukraine. Gulf states had been using expensive Patriot missiles to defend themselves from waves of Iranian Shahed drones in the days since the US and Israel launched their war. But their stocks are declining, and they are looking to Kyiv’s experience for cheaper defence against Russian drone barrages.
Western Official Estimates Iran Likely Has Just Days of Missile Strikes Left | Wall Street Journal
The number of Iranian ballistic missile launches is declining and at current rates Tehran has only several more days of firepower from them, according to a Western official. Still, the decline might also be because Iran is holding back missiles so its operations can last longer, the official said. The decline is a result of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian launch sites and the facilities that manufacture them, the official said. Even as its ability to fire sophisticated missiles dwindles, Iran can still maintain a drumbeat of attacks with cheaper systems, such as drones, another Western official said.
US May Not Have Capacity to Take Down Full Barrage of Iranian Drones, Officials Warn | Guardian
Top military officials told lawmakers in a closed door briefing on Tuesday that they may not be able to shoot down every Iranian drone being launched against US military installations and assets in retaliatory attacks, according to two people familiar with the matter. The officials, led by the chair of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen Dan Caine, said Iran has been deploying thousands of one-way attack drones and while they have capacity to take down the vast majority but not all of the barrage. As a result, the officials said in a classified briefing for lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the US was focused on destroying the launch sites for the drones and conventional missiles as quickly as possible.
Iran Strikes U.S. Military Communication Infrastructure in Mideast | New York Times
Iranian strikes conducted over the weekend and on Monday damaged structures that are part of or near communication and radar systems on at least seven U.S. military sites across the Middle East, according to a New York Times analysis of satellite imagery and verified videos. Visuals show damage on or close to mechanisms used to track incoming ballistic missiles, satellite dishes and radomes, which are weatherproof covers that protect sensitive equipment used by forces to communicate over long distances.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims to have launched ballistic missiles with 1-ton explosive warheads at Ben Gurion Airport this morning. In a statement, the IRGC says that at dawn, it launched Khorramshahr-4 missiles at “the heart of Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport, and the 27th Squadron base of the Israeli Air Force at this airport.” There is no 27th Squadron in the Israeli Air Force, and the claim is likely referring to Airbase 27, or Lod Airbase, which was once part of Ben Gurion Airport before being closed for good in 2010.
The US and Israel, in their ongoing airstrikes throughout Iran, are targeting members of the regime’s forces that took part in the crackdown on anti-government protesters earlier this year, hoping to make it easier for demonstrators to return to the streets once the bombing subsides, a US official and an Israeli official tell The Times of Israel. “When we said that we’re trying to create the conditions for regime change, these are the kinds of things that we’re referring to,” an Israeli official says.
Hegseth Says U.S. Strike Killed an Iranian Who Plotted to Assassinate Trump | New York Times
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that the leader of the Iranian covert unit that planned to assassinate President Trump in 2024 had been killed in the U.S. strikes on Iran. The Pentagon provided few details, but the Trump administration has said that Iran’s plotting to kill U.S. officials—particularly Mr. Trump—is one reason the United States launched its bombing campaign.
Airstrikes Hit Iran-Iraq Border as US and Israeli Plan to Mobilise Kurds Gathers Pace | Guardian
Intense waves of airstrikes have hit dozens of military positions, frontier posts and police stations along northern parts of Iran’s border with Iraq in what appears to be preparation by US and Israel for a new front in their war. A US official with knowledge of the discussions between Washington and Kurdish officials said the US was ready to provide air support if Kurdish peshmerga fighters crossed the border from northern Iraq. A spokesperson for Israel’s military said the air force had been “heavily operating in western Iran to degrade Iranian capabilities there and to open up a way to Tehran and create freedom of operations there.”
US in Talks with Iranian Kurdish Militants over Anti-Regime Operations | Financial Times
Iranian Kurdish armed groups are in talks with the Trump administration about whether they could play a role in the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against the Iranian regime. This has involved conversations about whether to attack Iranian security forces in a possible ground offensive led by the groups from Iraqi territory, where they are based, people familiar with the discussions have said. The groups have asked for US intelligence, weapons and training support, as well as a no-fly zone, according to two of the people familiar . . . There had been no agreement on that request, the people said.
Azerbaijan Says Two People Injured by Iranian Drones | Reuters
Azerbaijan's foreign ministry lodged an official protest with the Iranian embassy on Thursday after a pair of Iranian drones flew across the border into Azerbaijan and injured two people at an airport in the Nakhchivan exclave.
The Israeli military is planning for at least one or two more weeks of operations in Iran, during which it aims to hit thousands more Iranian regime targets, The Times of Israel has learned. Israel’s goal is a systematic degradation of the Iranian regime and its military sites.
Israel Expects Weeks-long War Against Iran | Financial Times
Israel is preparing for a multi-week military onslaught alongside the US to fully “dismantle” key pillars of Iran’s theocratic state and the Revolutionary Guards that protect the Islamic republic, said current and former Israeli officials. A senior Israeli military official said Israel’s objective was to “dismantle the regime’s military infrastructure, including the IRGC” as well as Iranian nuclear sites, military production facilities and space and cyber capabilities.
Israel Vows to Eliminate Khamenei’s Successor | Jewish Insider
“Any leader appointed by the Iranian terror regime will be a clear target for elimination,” [Israeli Defense Minister Israel] Katz said. “The prime minister and I instructed the IDF to prepare and act by all means to accomplish the mission . . . We will continue acting with full force, together with our American partners, crush the regime’s abilities and create the conditions for the Iranian people to topple and replace it.”
Turkey Says Iran’s Indiscriminate Attacks on Gulf States ‘Incredibly Wrong Strategy’ | Reuters
“Iran’s indiscriminate bombing of all these places is an incredibly wrong strategy,” [Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan] tells state broadcaster TRT Haber, adding that Tehran is using a strategy of “if I drown, I’ll drown the region as well.” Fidan says countries attacked by Iran may not be able to remain silent if the strikes continue, and that the risk of the conflict widening further is worrying.
Britain Not Ruling Out Future Strikes on Iran Missile Sites, Officials Indicate | Guardian
Britain has not ruled out joining in future strikes against Iranian ballistic missile launch sites amid concerns that otherwise Iran may be able to deplete allies’ stocks of air defence interceptors, officials have indicated. US heavy bombers are expected to reach UK bases at Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands and Fairford in Gloucestershire in the next few days, from where they are expected to attack Iran’s underground “missile cities.”
Oil Tanker Suffers Explosion as Risks Spread Wider into Gulf | Bloomberg
An oil tanker suffered an explosion off the coast of Iraq which damaged a tank that is losing water, signaling wider risks to shipping in the Persian Gulf beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The Sonangol Namibe was approached by a small boat near Khor Al Zubair in Iraq and its crew later heard a loud bang, according to Sonangol Marine Services. It is the first incident that far north in the Persian Gulf since the US and Israel began bombing Iran over the weekend.
Amazon’s Bahrain Data Center Targeted by Iran for Support of U.S. Military, State Media Says | CNBC
Amazon’s data center in Bahrain was targeted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for the company’s support of the U.S. military, Iranian state media said Wednesday. The company’s cloud computing unit said Monday that one of its facilities in Bahrain was damaged due to a nearby drone strike on Sunday. Two data centers in the United Arab Emirates were also damaged after they were “directly struck” by drones.
President Trump Says He Took Out Khamenei Before ‘He Got Me’ | New York Post
President Trump has said he took out Ayatollah Khamenei before the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader was able to assassinate him. “I got him before he got me,” Trump told ABC News’ Jonathan Karl in a phone call late Sunday. “They tried twice,” he said of previous attempts on his life. “Well, I got him first.”
Trump: Any Potential Next Leader of Iran ‘Just Ends Up Dead’ | The Hill
“[Iran’s] leadership is rapidly going. Everyone that wants to be a leader ends up dead,” [President Trump] told reporters . . . “Their missiles are being wiped out rapidly. Their launchers are being wiped out,” he added.
DIPLOMACY
Iran’s Secret Outreach Highlights Trump’s Challenge | New York Times
In public, Iran’s surviving leaders have defiantly refused to negotiate with President Trump to end the American and Israeli assault on their country. But a day after the attacks began, operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict, according to officials briefed on the outreach. U.S. officials are skeptical—at least in the short term—that either the Trump administration or Iran is really ready for an offramp, the officials briefed on the outreach said.
Netanyahu Asks White House if Secret Iran Talks Are Happening | Axios
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked the White House for clarifications earlier this week after learning Trump administration officials might be communicating with the Iranian regime, two sources with knowledge of the issue said. . . . “The White House told Bibi that the Trump administration wasn’t talking to the Iranians behind his back,” one source said. . . . A U.S. official and another source with knowledge said the Iranians sent messages to the Trump administration over the last few days, through countries in the Gulf and other countries in the region, but the U.S. didn’t respond. “We treated these messages as bulls**t,” the U.S. official told Axios.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Son Emerges as Leading Choice to Be His Successor | New York Times
The senior clerics responsible for selecting Iran’s next supreme leader met on Tuesday to deliberate, and the son of the slain former leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emerged as the clear front-runner, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the deliberations. The officials said that the clerics were considering announcing that the son, Mojtaba Khamenei, would be his father’s successor as early as Wednesday morning but that some had expressed reservations, fearing that it could expose him as a target for the United States and Israel.
Iran’s Assembly of Experts is set to hold an emergency session on Thursday to formally announce Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the late Supreme Leader, as the next leader, despite opposition from some members who warn against “hereditary leadership,” Iran International has learned.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Senate Rejects Bid to Scale Back Iran War | Politico
The Senate rejected an attempt to rein in the war in Iran, handing President Donald Trump what amounts to an endorsement of his five-day military campaign. The 47-53 vote split largely along party lines, with Republican senators united to defeat a measure that would have required congressional approval to continue the operation.