TOP STORIES
U.S. Sends Iran 15-Point Plan to End War | Wall Street Journal
The U.S. has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, officials said, which centers largely around previous Trump administration demands of Tehran. The document, sent through intermediaries, calls on Iran to dismantle its three main nuclear sites and end any enrichment on Iranian soil, suspend its ballistic-missile work, curb support for proxies and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to the officials. In return, Iran would have nuclear-related sanctions lifted, the officials said, and the U.S. would assist—while monitoring—the country’s civilian nuclear program. The plan broadly reflects the U.S. proposal discussed with Iran before the war started Feb. 28, when President Trump accused Tehran of not negotiating in good faith. Iran’s new, harder-line leadership says it now has higher demands of Washington, such as seeking reparations for weeks of attacks. On Tuesday, Trump said he was far more confident of Iran’s willingness to come to an agreement. “They’d like to make a deal,” he told reporters during an Oval Office event. “They’ve agreed they will never have a nuclear weapon.”
Iran Toughens Negotiating Stance amid Mediation Efforts, Sources Say | Reuters
Iran’s negotiating posture has hardened sharply since the war began, with the Revolutionary Guards exerting growing influence over decision-making, and it will demand significant concessions from the United States if mediation efforts lead to serious negotiations, three senior sources in Tehran said. In any talks with the U.S., Iran would not only demand an end to the war but concessions that are likely red lines for U.S. President Donald Trump—guarantees against future military action, compensation for wartime losses and formal control of the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said. Iran would also refuse to negotiate any limitations to its ballistic missile programme, they said, an issue that had been a red line for Tehran during the talks that were taking place when the U.S. and Israel launched their attack last month.
Pentagon to Order 3,000 82nd Airborne Soldiers to Middle East | Wall Street Journal
The Pentagon is planning to deploy a brigade combat team from the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East to support operations against Iran, according to two U.S. officials. . . . The 82nd Airborne’s combat brigade serves as the Army’s emergency response force and can be deployed anywhere in the world in under 24 hours. They train to parachute into hostile or contested territory to secure airfields and land. The brigade would be deployed along with the division headquarters, which is responsible for planning and coordination, the officials said.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Certain Oil Tankers Are Making It Safely Through Strait of Hormuz—Here’s How | New York Post
At least 14 Iran-flagged tankers have also reached the Singapore Strait, according to analysis from U.S. advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). It’s “business as usual” for Iran, UANI senior adviser Charlie Brown told Reuters, with another 15 of Tehran’s vessels sailing back to the Gulf after unloading their cargo in Asia.
On 9 March, a post on the social media network Telegram, reportedly from a group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI), announced the beginning of “military operations” against US and Israeli interests. Then, on Monday, a Telegram channel purporting to represent the group—whose name translates as the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right—made an unsubstantiated claim of responsibility for an arson attack on four Jewish ambulances in Golders Green, northwest London. . . . Jason Brodsky, policy director at the United Against Nuclear Iran, said: “Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiyya’s branding on videos includes logos that are adopted from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its broader terror network. The IRGC has different options to choose from in activating these groups: it can activate sleeper cells in the United Kingdom or it can employ transnational criminal syndicates to target Israeli interests, Jewish organisations, and the Iranian diaspora.”
China ‘Still Buying 90% of Iranian Oil’ Despite US Sanctions Waiver | Global Trade Review
Policy organisation United Against Nuclear Iran, which is chaired by former Florida governor Jeb Bush, noted that the US previously imposed “strict ringfencing” on payments for Iranian oil after the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. Funds would have to be deposited into restricted accounts in the buyers’ domestic banking system and were not freely transferable to Iran. United Against Nuclear Iran argued the latest waiver “should be understood as operating within the same framework”.
MILITARY MATTERS
Israel Hits Russian-Iranian Weapons Smuggling Route in the Caspian Sea | Wall Street Journal
An Israeli strike on a naval outpost in the Caspian Sea targeted Russia’s support for Iran in the war, hitting a supply line that the countries have used to move ammunition, drones and other weaponry, people familiar with the matter said.
US Targets April 9 to End Iran War, but Tehran Denies Talks as Strikes Intensify | Yedioth Ahronoth
Following statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, an Israeli official said Washington has set April 9 as a target date for ending the war, leaving about 21 days for continued fighting and negotiations. The official said talks between Iran and the United States are expected to take place later this week in Pakistan, adding that Washington has not updated Israel on contacts with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Ending the war by that date could allow Trump to visit Israel on Independence Day to receive the Israel Prize, the official said.
The Israeli Military Wants Several More Weeks to Fight Iran War, Officials Say | NPR
The Israeli military estimates it would need several more weeks of fighting to complete its war goals in Iran, two Israeli military officials told NPR on Tuesday. That timeline could be cut short as the U.S. makes efforts to try to end the war. . . . One of the officials, serving in a senior role in the Israeli military’s operations directorate, said the war has degraded Iran's chain of command, delayed Iran’s nuclear plans and destroyed many of its military industries, but that Iran remains an “active, dangerous player in the region.” The official also said that there are still remaining Iranian military industries and capabilities that Israel seeks to attack.
Iran Says ‘Non-Hostile’ Ships Can Transit Strait of Hormuz | Financial Times
Iran has circulated a letter to member countries of the International Maritime Organization saying “non-hostile vessels” can transit the Strait of Hormuz “in co-ordination with Iranian authorities.” . . . In recent days, ship tracking data has suggested Iran is permitting a small number of ships to pass via a route in its territorial waters. Analysts believe the route allows Iranian authorities to verify vessels’ identities before letting them transit. Some ships have paid as much as $2mn to Iran to ensure safe passage through the Gulf, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence and one person with knowledge of the situation. . . . Tehran said in the letter that vessels linked to the US and Israel, as well as “other participants in the aggression, do not qualify for innocent or non-hostile passage.”
Saudi Leader Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls | New York Times
Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been pushing President Trump to continue the war against Iran, arguing that the U.S.-Israeli military campaign presents a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East, according to people briefed by American officials on the conversations. In a series of conversations over the last week, Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government, the people familiar with the conversations said.
An Iranian cluster missile struck central Israel on Tuesday, wounding nine people in Bnei Brak, including six children, as Iran’s barrage on Israel continued. . . . Damage was also reported in Petah Tikva.
4 People Lightly Hurt, Buildings Mangled as Iranian Missile Attack Hits Tel Aviv | Times of Israel
“An Iranian ballistic missile attack lightly injured four people and badly damaged property in Tel Aviv on Tuesday morning after Israeli airstrikes struck multiple Islamic Republic regime sites overnight.”
3 Injured as Fragments of Iranian Missile Fall in Unrecognized Bedouin Village | Times of Israel
“Three people were wounded Tuesday when an Iranian missile fragment impacted at an unrecognized Bedouin community in the Negev Desert, paramedics said.
IDF Says Strike on Beirut Yesterday Killed a Member of Iran’s Quds Force | Times of Israel
An Israeli Navy strike in Beirut yesterday killed a member of the Quds Force, the extraterritorial arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military announces. The IDF says Muhammad Ali Kourani had been “advancing terror attacks directed by Iranian intelligence officials.”
Nato Chief Riles Europe by Backing Trump’s War in Iran | Financial Times
Nato’s secretary-general has riled European capitals with his unequivocal backing for Donald Trump’s war with Iran, as the continent grapples with an energy shock triggered by the conflict, further straining the transatlantic alliance. Mark Rutte’s suggestion that European allies would eventually “come together” to heed the US president’s call to deploy naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz has irked officials in several European capitals, alliance diplomats told the FT, exacerbating tensions within Nato over how far to go in accommodating its largest member.
DIPLOMACY
The United States — together with mediators Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey — is currently discussing holding a “peace summit” with Iran as early as Thursday, where the sides would discuss a new 15-point agreement proposed by the US, reports Channel 12, citing three sources familiar with the plan. The summit would likely be held in Islamabad, the Hebrew network says, although it says two sources note that Iran has not yet agreed to such a summit. . . . It is unclear at what level the talks would take place, the report continues. While the US is said to prefer a high-level meeting—such as between US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—they could also be held at a lower level, such as between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and top Trump aides Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
Iran Has Offered US Oil-and-Gas ‘Prize’ in Talks, Trump Says | Iran International
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that Tehran had offered Washington a “very significant prize” related to oil and gas, expressing optimism that a deal to end the conflict could be possible. Trump did not provide details about the offer he said Iran had made but described it as related to oil, gas and the Strait of Hormuz. . . . Trump reiterated that the central condition of any agreement would be Iran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons.
U.S. Awaits Iran’s Response on Peace Summit as Israel Watches Warily | Axios
The U.S. and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the discussions tell Axios. . . . The U.S. has shared with Israel its 15-point plan to end the war and claimed Iran had agreed to many of the key points. There’s been no tangible evidence of any such agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel’s objectives, includes significant concessions, and limits Israel's ability to conduct strikes against Iran, two Israeli sources say. A third source said Israeli leaders were skeptical Iran had actually offered the concessions the U.S. claimed. . . . The U.S. told the Israelis that Iran had agreed to give up its 450kg stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium, accept enhanced UN inspections and monitoring of its nuclear sites, limit the range of its ballistic missiles and cut back on support for proxies, the source said. The document calls for zero uranium enrichment in Iran, an Israeli source said. The U.S. side said Iran had agreed to suspend enrichment, but it's unclear for how long. It’s also unclear who purportedly made those commitments on behalf of Iran.
US President Donald Trump’s administration has conveyed 15 conditions to Iran as its terms for ending the current war, Israel’s Channel 12 reports, setting out what it says are the key points. The conditions appear to cover all of the United States’ and Israel’s war goals, the report indicates. Nonetheless, Channel 12 says, Jerusalem is concerned that Trump and his team want to push quickly for “a framework agreement, an agreement in principle” with Iran, rather than insisting on these demands as a condition for halting the war. According to three sources familiar with the details, the president’s top aides, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have fashioned a mechanism involving “the declaration of a monthlong ceasefire period, during which the sides would negotiate a 15-point agreement,” much like previous Trump administration-brokered agreements with Hamas in Gaza and with Lebanon.
Iran Military Spokesperson Says US Is Negotiating with Itself | Reuters
The United States is negotiating with itself, an Iranian military spokesman said according to state media on Wednesday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump said Tehran wants to make a deal to end the war in the Middle East. . . . “Has the level of your inner struggle reached the stage of you negotiating with yourself?” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for the unified command of Iran’s armed forces, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, taunted the U.S. leadership. People like us can never get along with people like you.” Zolfaqari said U.S. investments and pre-war energy prices would not return as long as Washington does not accept that regional stability is guaranteed by Iranian armed forces.
Iran Sets High Bar in Cease-Fire Talks: Here’s What Tehran Is Asking For | Wall Street Journal
Iranian representatives have let the Trump administration know they have a high bar for re-entering negotiations for a cease-fire deal. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated power within the shattered Iranian regime and is making demands such as the closure of all American bases in the Gulf and reparations for attacks on Iran, said people familiar with the matter. Other demands include: A new order for the Strait of Hormuz that would allow Iran to collect fees from ships that transit the waterway, as Egypt does now with the Suez Canal. Guarantees that the war wouldn’t restart and an end to Israel’s strikes on the Iran-aligned Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Lifting all sanctions on Iran. Permitting Iran to keep its missile program with no negotiations to limit it. A U.S. official called the demands ridiculous and unrealistic.
Long before he became Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf went on a charm offensive for almost two decades, portraying himself as a hard-liner the West could do business with in the Islamic Republic. . . . With the war in its fourth week after the joint U.S-Israeli strikes on Iran started last month, the 64-year-old pilot and former Revolutionary Guard commander has denied that there have been discussions with the United States amid reports that he was floated as Washington's negotiating partner in talks. . . . Questions also remain as to what power Qalibaf has within Iran's theocracy, shattered after the Feb. 28 Israeli airstrike that killed 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. . . . Meanwhile, Qalibaf has been tied to the crackdown against protesters calling for change within Iran’s government and has seen corruption allegations swirl around him during his time in office.
REGIME CHANGE
Mossad Chief Barnea Predicts Iran Regime Change Could Take About a Year | Jerusalem Post
In his eve of war prediction to the Israeli cabinet, Mossad Director David Barnea predicted the regime change in Iran is most likely to take a year, The Jerusalem Post has learned. There were multiple scenarios and time periods, such as several months, but one year was the most likely estimate.
PROXY WARS & TERRORISM
Airstrikes in Iraq on Iran-Backed Paramilitary Alliance Kill At Least 15 Fighters | Reuters
Airstrikes hit a regional headquarters of Iraq’s umbrella group for Iran-backed Shi'ite militias and a home used by its leader on Tuesday, killing at least 15 fighters in an escalation of U.S.-Israeli strikes on one of Tehran’s main regional allies. At least 30 other people were wounded in the strikes on the Popular Mobilization Forces' site in Iraq's western province of Anbar, according to medical officials. . . . Iraq’s National Security Council has authorised the PMF to exercise the right of self-defence and respond to any attacks targeting their positions.
A Chicago man has been charged with threatening to shoot up a synagogue in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Timothy Holmes, 31, is charged with one count of sending a true threat in interstate commerce. . . . An FBI investigation revealed additional threats he had posted online, including posts in which he provided the U.S. address of an unnamed Israeli official’s relative, along with the messages “The jew will be destroyed and discarded,” and “From the river to the sea every Jew will die.”
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Police Say 466 Arrested over Security and Online Activities | Iran International
Iranian police said on Tuesday they had arrested 466 people accused of undermining security and engaging in online activities linked to what they described as US and Israeli efforts to create instability. . . . It said those detained were accused of “spreading public fear and anxiety,” “promoting in favor of the enemy,” and “organizing disruptive elements in cyberspace.”
Baha’i Detainee Faces Torture, Mock Executions in Iran, Rights Group Says | Iran International
A young Baha’i detainee in Iran has been subjected to torture and mock executions and is at serious risk, a rights group said on Tuesday. The Baha’i International Community said Payvand Naeimi, held in Kerman since his arrest during protests in January, had endured prolonged interrogations, forced confessions and at least two mock hangings in custody. It said Naeimi had been accused of involvement in unrest and other crimes, including the killing of Basij members, despite being in custody at the time of the alleged incident. The group said he remains in solitary confinement without access to medical care, adding that the pressure on him appeared aimed at forcing false confessions.
CYBERSECURITY MATTERS
Iran-Linked Hackers Target Second U.S. Medical Institution, Researchers Say | Axios
Iranian government-linked hackers hit a U.S. medical institution with ransomware in late February, right around when the war in Iran began, according to research released Tuesday.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran’s New Security Chief Is a Hard-Line Former Guards Commander | New York Times
The man chosen to replace Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national security adviser who was killed in an Israeli strike last week, is a hard-line former deputy commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards who is little-known to most Iranians but has a long history of helping the organization expand its reach into Iran’s politics. The appointment of the former commander, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, was announced on Tuesday by a senior aide to Iran’s president.
EUROPE & IRAN
Sweden Suspends Visas for Iranian Diplomats, Warns of More Action | Iran International
Sweden has stopped issuing and renewing short-term visas for some Iranian embassy staff in Stockholm following the execution of a dual national, in a move its foreign minister said was “just the beginning” of further action. Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said the decision came after Iran executed an Iranian-Swedish citizen accused of spying for Israel, a charge Stockholm and European officials have rejected. “This is just the beginning,” she said, adding that Sweden was considering additional measures.
HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Lebanon Expels Iranian Envoy as Rift with Tehran Deepens | New York Times
Lebanon ordered the expulsion of Iran’s newly appointed ambassador on Tuesday, a rare rebuke of Tehran over its backing of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group that fired rockets into Israel earlier this month and opened one of the most active fronts in the Middle East war. . . . Hezbollah called the expulsion a “grave national and strategic mistake” that “opens the door to internal division” and “places the country on a highly dangerous path.” It called on Lebanon’s president and prime minister to reverse the Iranian ambassador’s expulsion. . . . Wafiq Safa, a senior Hezbollah official, said on Sunday that the group would compel the government to reverse the ban “regardless of the method.” He stopped short of calling for an immediate escalation, saying that Hezbollah did not intend to bring down the government through street protests. But he warned that a “different agenda” could emerge after the war, adding to growing fears of looming civil instability.