TOP STORIES
Israeli Officials Think Trump Could Give Them Green Light to Attack Iran Again | Axios
Israel is preparing for the possibility of further military action if Iran tries to revive its nuclear program, and Israeli officials think President Trump could green light renewed Israeli attacks, two sources with knowledge tell Axios. . . . Israeli officials say Netanyahu wants to reach understandings with Trump about future U.S. nuclear negotiations with Iran, and on possible scenarios that would justify renewed military strikes. . . . One scenario would be an Iranian attempt to remove the highly enriched uranium inside the damaged facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, according to the sources. Another would be if the Iranians start rebuilding their nuclear program, particularly enrichment facilities.
Iranian President Mahmoud Pezeshkian offered a rare moment of insight regarding the state of his country’s nuclear program over the weekend in an interview with Tucker Carlson that was published Monday. . . . In the lead-up to the interview’s publication, Carlson told viewers of his channel that he didn’t ask Pezeshkian about the status of the nuclear program and the country’s weapons development, given that he expected the Iranian government to be deceptive on the matter. Still, the Iranian president offered a comment about the program’s fate offhandedly during the interview, telling Carlson: “the facilities there have been severely damaged, and therefore we don’t have any access to them, and we cannot see—unless this access is going to be [restored], we have to wait . . . to see how much they have been damaged.”
Iranian Clerical Call to Kill Trump Spreads, Attracts Alleged Fundraising | Iran International
Areligious decree or fatwa issued by two senior Iranian clerics calling for the killing of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly gained support from about 10 other clerics and attracted alleged fundraising online. The ten state-appointed clerics issued an open letter on Monday referring to US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister as "infidel combatants", an Islamic legal term for a non-believer at war with Muslims who deserves death.
In a speech delivered in Azeri, another state-appointed cleric in Iran's West Azarbaijan Province announced a reward of 100 billion tomans (approximately $1.14 million) for anyone who kills Trump.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Ambassador Mark D. Wallace, CEO and Founder of United Against Nuclear Iran, said the Ayatollah is “on his heels and is “engaging in a purification campaign.” He told The Sun: “The Ayatollah is incredibly weak and I think what he's doing is out of fear that his regime is going to collapse. He's looking around, most of his generals have been killed. Those that are alive, he is probably suspicious that they are spies. There's no clear succession, and I think the Ayatollah is on his heels. He's doing everything he can to try to find some sort of path to a succession, and the continuation of this revolutionary regime.”
Iranian Oil Tankers with False Flags: Security Threat | Mi Periódico (translated from Spanish)
Of more than 540 tankers identified as transporters of Iranian oil products, 40 percent had false flags, according to data compiled by the U.S.-based United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). This practice increases the risk that poorly regulated and poorly maintained oil tankers will sail with invalid insurance on some of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Most of the vessels listed by the UANI are over 20 years old, an advanced age for large oil tankers (VLCCs). Experts say that the lack of proper regulation and identification of these vessels increases the risk of a serious oil disaster.
NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran Denies Requesting Meeting with US for Nuclear Talks | Times of Israel
Iran did not request a meeting with the United States to resume nuclear talks, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says according to state media. US President Donald Trump’s Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff said he would meet with Iranian diplomats “next week or so.”
UN Nuclear Chief Says Military Force Cannot End Iran Nuclear Standoff | Iran International
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Monday that only a negotiated solution can end the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program, as the diplomatic outlook following a 12-day war remains unclear. “The solution cannot be military, as it is impossible to completely destroy the potential of such an important country with a technological and industrial base,” said IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi at a press conference in Warsaw on Monday.
SANCTIONS, SHIPPING, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
I’d Love to Give Iran a Chance, Trump Says at Dinner with Israeli PM | Iran International
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Iran has requested negotiations with Washington and expressed his willingness to lift sanctions “at the right time.” “I would love to be able to take those sanctions off and give them a chance,” Trump said during a White House dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “They want to meet and make peace. We have scheduled Iran talks. They want to talk.”
MISSILE PROGRAM & CHINA
Iran Receives Chinese Surface-to-Air Missile Batteries After Israel Ceasefire Deal | Middle East Eye
Iran has taken possession of Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries as Tehran rapidly moves to rebuild defensives destroyed by Israel during their recent 12-day conflict, sources have told Middle East Eye. The deliveries of Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries occurred after a de-facto truce was struck between Iran and Israel on 24 June, an Arab official familiar with the intelligence told MEE.
Israel should be more concerned at this juncture about Iran's possible rush to restore its ability to threaten it with ballistic missiles than about a comeback by the Iranian nuclear program anytime in the foreseeable future, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday. Katz explained that the Islamic Republic's nuclear program has been “mortally wounded” and generally battered on so many fronts that it is at least a couple years away from recovering. The defense minister also said it is not even clear that Tehran will decide to reconstitute the nuclear program because of the sheer number of fronts it would need to reconstitute, the immense financial loss it has taken by the program being bombed by Jerusalem and Washington, and the equally large funds it would need to invest in the future to get back to a point to be taken seriously. In contrast, Katz said that the ballistic missile program was heavily damaged by Israel, but that large portions of it are intact.
PROTESTS AND HUMAN RIGHTS
Five Kurdish Men Sentenced to Death Over 2022 Protests, Rights Group Says | Iran International
Five Kurdish men detained during the 2022 protests in Iran have been sentenced to death by a revolutionary court in the city of Urmia, the Kurdistan Human Rights Network (KHRN) said on Monday. According to the group, the five men — identified as Ali Ghasemi, Pejman Soltani, Kaveh Salehi, Rezgar Beikzadeh Babamiri and Tifur Salimi Babamiri — were arrested for participating in demonstrations in the cities of Bukan and Baneh during the Women, Life, Freedom protests, ignited over the death of a 22-year-old woman in police custody. The rights group said eight others linked to the same case have received prison terms and fines.
Iran Carries Out Mass Expulsion of Afghan Refugees | New York Times
Hundreds of thousands of hungry, exhausted and often battered Afghans have been expelled from Iran in recent weeks, under a harsh deportation drive that accelerated sharply last month, international aid workers say. Since March, when Iranian authorities ordered undocumented residents to leave the country, about 800,000 Afghans have poured across the border . . . Almost 600,000 of them have been forced out since June 1. During and since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran last month, Iranian officials have repeatedly cast suspicion on Afghans as possible spies for Israel, amplifying longstanding rumors and tensions.
Iran Internet Blackouts Hobble Economy, Erode Public Trust | Iran International
A nationwide internet outage likely imposed by the Tehran beginning just after midnight on July 6 has deepened concerns among a weary public over the already parlous state of the economy and access to information. Confirmed by global observatory NetBlocks, the blackout caused a near-total loss of connectivity. Though partial access later returned, traffic remains just 20% of pre-conflict levels. The latest shutdown follows a string of disruptions that began during the 12-day June conflict with Israel, when authorities restricted access under the guise of national security.
Iran Accuses Detained Activist of Propaganda in Favor of Israel | Iran International
Iran has accused detained political activist Hossein Ronaghi of “propaganda against the Islamic Republic in favor of Israel” over an Instagram story he posted after the start of Israel’s strikes during the recent 12-day war, Iran International has learned. The charge was brought under Article 8 of the Law on Confronting Israeli Actions. Ronaghi was arrested on June 23 by order of Tehran’s prosecutor and the Culture and Media Court, and a 30-day temporary detention order has been issued.
TERRORISM & HOMELAND SECURITY
Iranian Sleeper Cells May Target Rural America, Former FBI Agent Warns | Fox News
A counterterrorism expert says that Iranian sleeper cells may be hiding “in plain sight,” waiting to strike rural areas in America.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei Under Mounting Pressure to Reform | Bloomberg
For almost four decades Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has defined his rule and Iran’s place in the world through his hostility to Israel and the US. Last month that enmity culminated in a military attack on the Islamic Republic when Israel launched heavy airstrikes on Tehran and across the country. The assault embarrassed the leadership, which had been caught off guard, and while the Supreme Leader survived the 12-day conflict and a US bombing raid on Iran’s key nuclear sites, more than 1,000 Iranians, mostly civilians, didn’t. Some of Iran’s most powerful military figures were assassinated. The fallout has intensified scrutiny of the 86-year-old cleric — the ultimate authority in Iran — and raised questions about how long he can remain in power, who or what might replace him and what that means for a country at the heart of the Middle East with an economy sapped by years of sanctions.
What the War Changed Inside Iran | Alex Vatanka in Foreign Policy
The 12-day war between Iran, Israel, and the United States has ended, but the dust has not yet settled. Many official voices in Tehran are warning that the war can resume at any moment. Iran now faces deepening economic turmoil, political uncertainty, and hard choices about its nuclear future. The central question is whether the Islamic Republic will emerge stronger through nationalist mobilization or weaker, exposed by vulnerabilities it long sought to deny. No doubt, Iran’s leaders stand at a true crossroads.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Sen. Steve Daines Says Regime Change Is the Best Long-Term Plan in Iran | Fox News
Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and previously held a position as chair of the Senate GOP's campaign arm, told Fox News Digital that he is cautiously optimistic that the truce will hold, but warned that Iran’s deep-seated aggression towards Israel could be the ceasefire’s undoing—unless a new regime took over. “I'm of the opinion that the longer-term solution in Iran is going to be regime change,” Daines said. “Because until you have a regime that recognizes the legitimacy of the Jewish state of Israel and their right to exist, and believes that Israel should not be destroyed, I don’t think we’re going to bring the peace that we need, that we all aspire to see between Iran, Israel and, frankly, in the Middle East.”
RUSSIA & IRAN
Tehran Commentariat Cry Betrayal Over Russia’s Silence in Israel Clash | Iran International
With the fighting paused, many in Tehran are taking stock of what the Iran-Israel conflict revealed, and Russia’s muted response is coming under growing scrutiny, especially in light of Moscow’s expanding defense ties with countries like India. . . . “Russia appears neither willing nor able to offer effective mediation or military backing,” Sohrab Saeddin, a European affairs researcher, told Khabar Online on June 30. “Alignment at the UN may raise Tehran’s diplomatic profile, but one cannot expect a more active role.” Former deputy parliament speaker Ali Motahari was blunter in a July 1 post on X: “Russia gave the S-400 defense system to Turkey and Saudi Arabia but won’t provide it to Iran—because it might be used against Israel.”
EUROPE & IRAN
UK Report Warns of Iranian Plots as Italy Reveals Covert Influence Network | Iran International
A parliamentary report in the UK is set to warn that Iran remains one of the gravest state-based threats to British security, according to The Telegraph, while a separate investigation in Italy has uncovered a vast influence network supporting the Islamic Republic.
The government’s independent reviewer of state threats legislation has identified a “gap” in law which is now being filled to enable the proscription of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, a minister has said. Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer was pressed in the Commons on a government pre-election pledge to ban the organisation which has been directly linked to at least 20 foiled terror plots in the UK since 2022, according to MI5’s director-general Ken McCallum.
France Warns Against Ignoring Iran Travel Advice Following Teenager’s Disappearance | Independent
French authorities have warned its citizens to take government travel advice seriously after a French teenager went missing in Iran. Lennart Monterlos, an 18-year-old French-German citizen was on a bicycle journey across Europe and Asia on his way to Japan when he disappeared in Iran.
ISRAEL & IRAN
Trump and Netanyahu Take a Victory Lap to Mark Strikes on Iran Nuclear Facilities | Associated Press
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Donald Trump that he was nominating the U.S. leader for a Nobel Peace Prize as the two took a victory lap on Monday after their recent joint strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, with both hailing the 12-day war as an unmitigated success.
The president of Iran claimed that Israel attempted to assassinate him in an airstrike targeting a high-profile meeting, according to his interview with Tucker Carlson. . . . Pezeshkian said his government was still open to a new nuclear agreement with the Trump administration, which came to a halt when the war broke out. Pezeshkian, however, said the onus was on the US to re-establish trust, given that the two nations were set to meet to discuss Iran’s nuclear program when President Trump reportedly gave Israel the green light to attack.
Iran Expects Trump's Support for New Israeli Attacks—State TV | Iran International
Iran’s state TV reported that Tehran believes Israel seeks further attacks which Trump is unlikely to oppose, as US news outlet Axios cited sources saying Israel sees Trump backing strikes on further nuclear activities. “The (Israeli) regime seeks war, and we doubt Trump would oppose it. We, too, are in a state of full readiness,” state-run Press TV quoted what they called an informed Iranian source as saying.