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Booms and air raid sirens sounded across Israel early Sunday after Iran launched hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles in an unprecedented revenge mission that pushed the Middle East closer to a regionwide war. A military spokesman said the launches numbered more than 300 but 99% of them were intercepted. Calling the outcome “a very significant strategic success,” Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Iran fired 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles. Of those, several ballistic missiles reached Israeli territory, causing minor damage to an air base. Rescuers said a 7-year-old girl in a Bedouin Arab town was seriously wounded in southern Israel, apparently in a missile strike, though they said police were still investigating the circumstances of her injuries.
Israel pledged that it will “exact a price” from Iran as the country weighs its response to an unprecedented overnight barrage of drone and missile strikes while facing international pressure to de-escalate. The overnight attack – which saw Tehran launch a series of strikes at Israel over a five-hour period – threatens to tip the crisis in the Middle East into an untempered regional war. Israel’s war cabinet has been authorized to respond to the attack and met on Sunday, with one of its members, Benny Gantz, saying the “event is not over.” He cited the need to “build a regional coalition and exact a price from Iran, in a way and at a time that suits us.” Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant earlier said Israel had “thwarted this attack in a way that is unparalleled” but added “we must be prepared for every scenario.” In his first comments, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “we have intercepted, we have contained. Together we shall win.”
Most U.N. Security Council Members Condemn Iranian Attack, Urge ‘Restraint’ | Washington Post
The U.N. Security Council met Sunday to discuss Iran’s first direct military attack on Israel, its decades-long foe. A majority of the Security Council members, including the United States, condemned the attack, urging Middle Eastern leaders to avoid escalation of the six-month Israel-Gaza war. In its overnight attack, Iran sent more than 300 drones and missiles toward Israel but did not cause major damage or injuries because a U.S.-led coalition destroyed most of the projectiles.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iran Warns Of Further Retaliation If Israel Responds | i24 News
Calling #Iran's attack on #Israel `a win,' as @POTUS reportedly told @IsraeliPM, is `gross political spin,' says @UANI's @JasonMBrodsky
Iran Summons UK, France And Germany Ambassadors | BBC News
Interview with Kasra Aarabi. The Iranian regime’s strikes on #Israel had nothing to with Biden’s inability to get a ceasefire, but a lot to do with #Biden’s failure to impose direct consequences on the #IRGC despite its escalation since Oct 7. Failed US deterrence shaped the IRGC’s calculus.
Israel-Iran Tensions, Sunak Confirms RAF Pilots Shot Down Attack Drones | Talk TV
Interview with Kasra Aarabi: "My analysis on last night’s direct strike on #Israel by the Iranian regime’s #IRGC — and what we can (and should) expect next."
…Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, wrote that Biden’s response, “spinning an unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel,” is “akin to telling the victim of a bully—he didn’t make impact, so deescalate.” “With this message that the U.S. won’t support an Israeli counterattack on Iran, Biden is signaling that his ‘don’t’ to Tehran didn’t mean anything,” Brodsky added. “Biden thinks that a successful defense will be enough to counter Khamenei. It’s naïveté bordering on stüpidité,” wrote Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of Foundation for Defense of Democracies. (Ali Khamenei is the supreme leader of Iran.)
IRGC Seizes 'Israeli-Affiliated' Cargo Ship Near Strait Of Hormuz | Iran International
…Jason Brodsky, Policy Director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), also wrote on X that the boarding may be “part of a multi-layered response from Iran which wants to maintain attention and exhaust Israel.” Following the incident, the Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari warned in a video message in English that “Iran will bear the consequences for choosing to escalate the situation any further.” Calling the Iranian regime “the world’s biggest state sponsor of terror,” he stressed that Tehran’s network of terror not only threatens people in Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, but provokes conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Exclusive: Russian Oil And Products Trapped On Tankers Hit By New Iran-Related Sanctions | Reuters
…Claire Jungman, chief of staff at U.S. advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, which tracks Iran-related tanker traffic via satellite data confirmed movements of both vessels, adding that since 2021 Elsa has transported over 9 million barrels of Iranian crude or fuel oil to the UAE, Singapore and China. Elsa has been at anchor off Singapore since early April, according to LSEG data. The other vessel, Hebe, was loaded with the 100,000 tons of fuel oil at the Russian Baltic ports St Petersburg and Ust-Luga. The tanker is heading towards the Suez Canal, but the final destination is unclear yet.
This weekend, the Islamic Republic of Iran launched an unprecedented attack against Israel. For the first time since 1979, Iran’s leadership launched strikes from Iranian territory at Israel proper using more than 300 drones and missiles, with the vast majority shot down.T hese strikes took place ahead of Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s 85th birthday on April 19. His regime is deeply unpopular at home and planning for succession. Yet Khamenei has demonstrated a surprising willingness to take risks in his old age. His strategy towards Israel has certainly come full circle. In a private meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister in 2001, Khamenei said that he wanted to ‘set Israel on fire’. Iran has done this by building up proxies in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and increasingly in Jordan to encircle Israel in a ring of fire. The idea has been to keep Israel busy defending its borders while deterring an Israeli attack on Iranian soil.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil Prices Fall After Iran Attack As Market Draws Down Risk Premium | Reuters
Oil prices fell during trade on Monday, as market participants dialled back risk premiums following Iran's attack on Israel late on Saturday which the Israeli government said caused limited damage. Brent futures for June delivery fell 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $90.25 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 33 cents, or 0.4%, at $85.33 a barrel by 0225 GMT. The attack involving more than 300 missiles and drones was the first on Israel from another country in more than three decades, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East. But the attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defence system. Israel, which is at war with Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza, has neither confirmed nor denied it struck the consulate.
Stocks Hit By Iran-Israel Fears, Containment Hopes Stem Losses | The New Arab
Equities retreated on Monday after Iran ramped up Middle East tensions by launching a retaliatory attack of missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend, fuelling fears of a wider conflict in the volatile region. However, while Israel called the attack – which Tehran said was in response to a strike on its Syrian embassy – an escalation of hostilities, analysts said there was hope among traders that the crisis could be contained. That sliver of optimism helped drag oil prices lower. Saturday's bombardment of more than 300 ballistic and cruise missiles and attack drones – which were mostly repelled by air defences – compounded worries about the outlook for US interest rates following more forecast-beating inflation and jobs data. Iran told the United Nations the strike was a "legitimate" defensive response to the attack in Damascus on 1 April, which killed seven Revolutionary Guards including two generals.
MISSILE PROGRAM
Roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target, three U.S. officials said. U.S. officials said that Iran launched between 115 and 130 ballistic missiles that targeted Israel. When asked for more details about those strikes, the officials acknowledged that only about half of them were intercepted successfully. The rest failed in flight and didn't reach their targets, the officials said. "So much for the vaunted ballistic-missile capability of Iran," said a U.S. official.
American forces downed over a quarter of the missiles and drones bound for Israel from Iran on Saturday evening, U.S. Central Command said Sunday. American and European-allied destroyers shot down 80 Iranian attack drones and at least six ballistic missiles launched from Iran and Yemen bound for Israel. It is estimated that about 350 missiles and drones were launched at Israel in the large-scale attack. “Iran’s continued unprecedented, malign, and reckless behavior endangers regional stability and the safety of U.S. and coalition forces,” CENTCOM said in a statement. “CENTCOM remains postured to support Israel’s defense against these dangerous actions by Iran. We will continue to work with all our regional partners to increase regional security.”
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Biden Keeps Low Profile After Iran’s Israel Attack | POLITICO
President Joe Biden deliberately kept a low public profile following Iran’s attacks against Israel over the weekend, hoping that his absence from the spotlight would help deescalate the situation. White House aides on Sunday discussed the idea of Biden delivering a national address after Israel, in conjunction with U.S. forces, shot down the vast majority of the 300 drone and missile launches from Iran forces seeking to avenge the killing of senior paramilitary leaders. But while scheduling was fluid, there were no immediate plans for Biden to address an American audience on the conflict in the Middle East, according to six officials, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal planning. Advisers assessed that a major presidential event, such as a televised address, would likely escalate the tensions and may provoke Tehran, two of the officials said. “Putting the president behind the Resolute Desk turns up the temperature,” said one of those officials. “That’s something to ideally avoid.” Such an approach remains consistent with how Biden has operated throughout the conflict in the Middle East that began soon after Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7.
Iranian Notice Of Attack May Have Dampened Escalation Risks | Reuters
Turkish, Jordanian and Iraqi officials said on Sunday Iran gave wide notice days before Saturday's drone and missile attack on Israel allowing mass casualties and rampant escalation to be averted, but a U.S. official denied this. Most of the hundreds of drones and missiles launched by Iran in a retaliatory strike were downed before reaching Israeli territory, though a young girl was critically injured and the region remains braced for further escalation. Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Sunday Iran had given neighbouring countries and Israel's ally the United States 72 hours' notice it would launch the strikes, a move that would have enabled them to largely thwart the attack.
Vital Swiss Role As US-Iran Go-Between, As Tensions Soar | AFP
Washington and Tehran have not had diplomatic relations for decades, but before Iran's attack on Israel they had direct communications through "the Swiss channel". Switzerland represents US interests in Iran, and at times of soaring tensions its role as go-between takes on heightened importance. The Swiss foreign ministry refused Monday to divulge what actions the country had taken in connection with Iran's weekend attack on Israel. But US and Iranian officials alluded to the important role Switzerland was playing as an intermediary. As Washington engaged in whirlwind efforts prior to the attack to prepare for the expected violence, it sent "a series of direct communications through the Swiss channel", a senior administration official told AFP.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
US Will Not Take Part In Any Israeli Retaliatory Action Against Iran | Reuters
President Joe Biden warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not take part in a counter-offensive against Iran, an option that Netanyahu's war cabinet favors after a mass drone and missile attack on Israeli territory, according to officials. The threat of open warfare erupting between the arch Middle East foes and dragging in the United States has put the region on edge, triggering calls for restraint from global powers and Arab nations to avoid further escalation. The U.S. will continue to help Israel defend itself but does not want war, John Kirby, the White House's top national security spokesperson, told ABC's "This Week" program on Sunday. Jordan's King Abdullah told Biden in a phone call on Sunday that any further escalation from Israel would widen the conflict in the region, Jordanian state media reported. Israeli officials said Netanyahu's five-member war cabinet favored retaliation in a meeting on Sunday, though the panel is divided over the timing and scale of any such response.
Iran's U.N. Mission Says Military Action Concluded | Wall Street Journal
Iran's mission to the United Nations said that following the launch of the drones toward Israel, Tehran now considered that its retaliation for an attack on its diplomatic compound in Damascus to be ended. "The matter can be deemed concluded," it said. "However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!" Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it launched the drones and missiles in retaliation for “numerous crimes of the Zionist regime including the strike on the consulate section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus and martyrdom of a number of military commanders and advisers in Syria." The IRGC also said the attack had already hit certain targets inside Israel.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
At UN, Israel Demands Iran Be Punished For Attack | Voice Of America
Israel demanded Sunday that the U.N. Security Council act to punish and deter Iran following an unprecedented Iranian military strike on Israel that Tehran said was in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy in Syria earlier this month. “Today, the council must take action,” Israel’s U.N. envoy, Gilad Erdan, told the Security Council. “Condemn Iran for their terror; trigger the snap back mechanism and reimpose crippling sanctions; designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terror organization. Action must be taken now — not for Israel’s sake, not for the region’s sake, but for the world’s sake.” Israel requested the emergency meeting following a direct attack on its territory by Iran that it said included 170 armed drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles. Israel said its air defenses, along with those of the United States and other allies, shot down 99% of them. Erdan criticized the council for not listening to Israel’s warnings over the years about Iran. He said the international community has been silent on the rise of “a Shiite Islamist Reich,” but with Iran’s direct attack on Israel, the regime has now been exposed.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Four Israeli Soldiers Wounded In Operations On Border With Lebanon | Haaretz
Four Israeli soldiers from the Golani patrol battalion and the special unit Yahalom were wounded in an explosion during operations on the northern border with Lebanon. One was seriously wounded, two were moderately wounded and one was lightly wounded. They were sent by helicopter for medical treatment. The source of the explosion is unknown. The army is investigating the incident.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Arab Nations Call For Restraint As Israel-Iran Conflict Intensifies | The Washington Post
After Iran launched a retaliatory wave of missiles and drones toward Israel, a rare direct attack by Tehran, much of the Middle East found itself in uncharted territory: bracing for further violence while scrambling to interpret the new rules of confrontation between the region’s most powerful adversaries. Iranian-backed militant groups that have participated in attacks on Israel over the last six months — in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq — congratulated Iran for the barrage but indicated that, this time, they had largely stayed out of the fray. Arab governments, already struggling to contain popular fury at Israel’s deadly military offensive in Gaza, pleaded for calm. By late Sunday, the question of whether there would be further regional escalation had shifted to Israel, which said it was weighing its response.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The United Kingdom, France and Germany urged Israel on Monday not to retaliate against Iran after its unprecedented attack on Saturday night, warning that a military response could send the Middle East spiraling into an all-out war, as Israel’s war cabinet prepared to meet to discuss its options against Tehran. Speaking to the BBC ahead of an expected statement by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Monday afternoon, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that while the inclination to respond to the roughly 350 attack drones and missiles launched by Tehran was justified, Israel needs to “think with its head as well as its heart, to be smart as well as tough.” The UK has advised Israel that it would be better off not retaliating, Cameron said, declaring that the attack was a “double defeat” for Iran in that it failed to cause major damage to Israel while at the same revealing “to the world that [Iran is] the malign influence in the region prepared to do this.”