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Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the U.S. via Arab intermediaries, Middle Eastern and European officials said. In the midst of a ferocious Israeli air campaign, Tehran has told Arab officials it would be open to returning to the negotiating table as long as the U.S. doesn’t join the attack, the officials said. Iran also passed messages to Israel saying it is in the interest of both sides to keep the violence contained.
US Bolsters Military Options for Trump with Refueling Aircraft, Officials Say | Reuters
The U.S. military has moved a large number of refueling aircraft to Europe to provide options to President Donald Trump as Middle East tensions soar, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday . . . the deployments suggest the United States is greatly strengthening its air power for potentially sustained operations as Iran and Israel trade blows, in unprecedented open warfare that is seeing civilian casualties mount on both sides.
Trump Team Proposes Iran Talks This Week on Nuclear Deal, Ceasefire | Axios
The White House is discussing with Iran the possibility of a meeting this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, according to four sources briefed on the issue. The objective would be to discuss a diplomatic initiative involving a nuclear deal and an end to the war between Israel and Iran. . . . Trump sees the massive bunker busters needed to destroy Iran’s underground enrichment facility at Fordow—which the U.S. has and Israel does not—as a key point of leverage to get Iran to cut a deal, a senior U.S. official said. Describing the decision on bunker busters as an “inflection point,” the official said Trump “thinks in terms of deals and leverage. And this is leverage.” “They do want to talk,” the senior official continued. “But what we don't know is, ‘have they been brought to their knees fully so that they realize that in order to have a country, they have to talk?’ And assuming they get there, is there any degree of enrichment you would allow them to have?”
UANI IN THE NEWS
UANI Director of IRGC Research Kasra Aarabi Discusses the State of Iran’s Nuclear Program | LBC
Iran’s regime was “absolutely at breakout point . . . Let’s not forget, this nuclear program is not run by civilians, it is run and controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps . . . an ideological military force with an official objective to eradicate the state of Israel.”
UANI Research Director Daniel Roth Discusses Israel-Iran Conflict | NewsX World
When asked if the 60-day deadline for the recent nuclear negotiations was realistic, UANI Research Director Daniel Roth said that it was “absolutely realistic and necessary” on NewsX World.
Twenty Questions (and Expert Answers) on the Israel-Iran War | Atlantic Council's MENASource
I think we are seeing that Iran’s bark is worse than its bite. Israel’s military and intelligence superiority over the Islamic Republic has overwhelmed and severely weakened the regime through decapitations, degradation of its armed forces, and damage to its nuclear program. Iran cannot compete with the surgical and lethal precision with which Israel is mounting its campaign. Israel’s leadership likely factored in the damage to the home front when making the decision to strike Iran so aggressively, and that speaks to the confidence the Israeli defense establishment has in its ability to manage and counter Iranian retaliation. The one area I am most concerned about is the prospect of Tehran activating contingency operations targeting Israeli and Jewish interests abroad via terrorism. Iran may also consider targeting the energy interests of US partners in the Arab world as a means of extracting economic pain for these Israeli attacks. Tehran may likewise turn to cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. But in the end, Iran will face supply constraints, and we’re already seeing missiles being lobbed at Israel in more limited quantities, likely to preserve capacity—Jason M. Brodsky is the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).
Iran May Turn to International Terror | UANI Senior Advisor Dror Doron in the Jewish Independent
The war between Israel and Iran is an event the two adversaries have been preparing for decades. So far, Iranian retaliation efforts for Israel's strikes on key military and nuclear targets have been focused on attacking Israel with massive ballistic missile and suicide drones. . . . With limited options to respond militarily against Israel, it is highly likely that Iran will initiate a global terror campaign against Israeli and Jewish targets. This is a well-established modus operandi by Tehran, which was used after previous Israeli attacks against Iran as part of the decades-long shadow war the two countries have been engaged in.
"For the Iranian regime, the most important thing is to preserve the Islamic Republic" said Jemima Shelley, researcher at United Against Nuclear Iran.
“He was pleased to have contained conflicts far from Iran's borders since he took office in 1989,” said Jason Brodsky of the US-based United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). “Khamenei made a big miscalculation.” . . . “But what is happening today is on a completely different scale,” Brodsky said.
“Worth noting IRIB has worked with the Islamic Republic's intelligence services to broadcast forced confessions of Western hostages, including Americans, and Iranian political prisoners,” wrote Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, a U.S.-based think tank.
"Since he assumed supreme leadership in 1989, he has prided himself on having moved conflicts away from Iran's borders," said Jason Brodsky of the U.S.-based organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). "In this way, Khamenei made a big miscalculation. What is happening right now "is occurring at a speed that threatens to exceed Tehran's capacity," he emphasizes.
Pressure Group UANI Hails Liberian Registry After Removal of All Iran-Linked Tonnage | Lloyd's List
New York-based pressure group UANI has applauded Liberia for its ‘world-class’ compliance programme after removing vessels that appeared on the group’s watch list for moving Iranian oil.
London Playbook PM: Gangs Warfare | Politico
TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND . . . Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): U.S. Middle East Project President Daniel Levy and United Against Nuclear Iran spokesperson Kasra Aarabi (both 5.05 p.m.).
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
U.S. Tells Allies It Won’t Join War Unless Iran Targets Americans | Axios
The Trump administration told several Middle Eastern allies on Sunday that it doesn't plan to get actively involved in the war between Israel and Iran unless Iran targets Americans, two sources from countries that received that U.S. message tell Axios.
Trump Says He Wants a ‘Real End,’ Not Just Ceasefire in Iran | Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump said his early departure from the Group of Seven leaders meeting in Canada has “nothing to do” with working on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, adding that his reason is “much bigger than that.” Asked aboard Air Force One what he was looking for that could be better than a ceasefire, Trump responded, “An end. A real end, not a ceasefire, an end.”
Israeli Air War on Iran: Tehran Calls on Trump to Seek Ceasefire | Reuters
Iran called on U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday to force Israel to cease fire as the only way to end the four-day-old aerial war, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country was on the “path to victory.” . . . “If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X. “Israel must halt its aggression, and absent a total cessation of military aggression against us, our responses will continue. It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu. That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy.”
Iran Sought US Pressure on Israel for Ceasefire via Gulf States, Sources Say | Reuters
Tehran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to press U.S. President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire with Iran in return for Iranian flexibility in nuclear negotiations, two Iranian and three regional sources told Reuters on Monday. . . . Iran is willing to be flexible in the nuclear talks if a ceasefire is reached, one of the Iranian sources said. The Gulf states are deeply concerned the conflict will spin out of control, a Gulf source close to government officials told Reuters. Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia have all appealed to Washington to press Israel to agree to a ceasefire and to resume talks with Tehran towards a nuclear deal, the Gulf source said.
IDF Kills Ali Shadmani, Newly Appointed Iranian Chief of Staff | i24NEWS
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced today the successful assassination of Ali Shadmani, the newly appointed Chief of Staff of Iran’s armed forces and one of the regime’s most senior military commanders.
Israel Attacks Iran State Media, Orders Evacuations and Moots Regime Change | Iran International
Israel stepped up its attacks against Iran on Monday with an attack on state media headquarters as the Israeli military ordered an evacuation of a large swath of Tehran and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for regime change. Iran kept up its salvos of missile fire on Israel which have killed at least 24 people since the start of the conflict, while US President Donald Trump called for an exodus from Tehran.
Trump Tells Tehran Residents to Immediately Flee | Iran International
US President Donald Trump on Monday called for an exodus from Tehran in a major escalation to the Iran-Israel conflict which was entering its fifth day. “Iran should have signed the 'deal' I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” he added.
Iranian Residents Flee Tehran After Israel Orders Evacuation | ITV News
Iranian residents are leaving their homes in Tehran after the Israeli military ordered a partial evacuation of the capital ahead of new strikes. The Israeli Defence Force (IDF) issued an evacuation warning affecting up to 330,000 people in a part of central Tehran that includes the country’s state TV and police headquarters, as well as three large hospitals.
Iran Leader Khamenei Sees His Inner Circle Hollowed Out by Israel | Reuters
Iran's 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cuts an increasingly lonely figure. Khamenei has seen his main military and security advisers killed by Israeli air strikes, leaving major holes in his inner circle and raising the risk of strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process.
Israel's Smaller, Sophisticated Military Opposes Larger Iran | BBC News
Israel's conflict with Iran may look like a mismatch on paper—a nation of nine million people taking on a giant of the Middle East, home to 88 million. But Israel's formidable and sophisticated military forces - with an arsenal largely, but not exclusively, provided by the United States - are enabling it to overpower a much larger enemy.
‘They’d Like to Talk’: Trump Says Iran Looking to De-Escalate with Israel | USA Today
Trump told reporters at the G7 Summit in Canada he believes Iran is seeking an off-ramp because “they'd like to talk.” “They have to make a deal,” Trump said. “And it's painful for both parties, but I'd say Iran is not winning this war, and they should talk, and they should talk immediately before it's too late.” Trump brushed off a question about what it would take for the U.S. to get involved in the conflict, saying he didn’t want to discuss it. Later when asked about intelligence-sharing with Israel, he said: “We’ve always supported Israel . . . Israel’s doing very well right now.”
Netanyahu Tells ABC He’s Not Ruling Out Taking Out Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei | ABC News
Asked if Israel would target the supreme leader, Netanyahu said that Israel was “doing what we need to do.” “I'm not going to get into the details, but we've targeted their top nuclear scientists,” Netanyahu said. “It's basically Hitler's nuclear team.” Netanyahu said it in America's interest to support Israel as it seeks to eliminate Iran's nuclear program. “Today, it’s Tel Aviv. Tomorrow, it’s New York. Look, I understand ‘America First.’ I don't understand ‘America Dead.’ That’s what these people want. They chant ‘Death to America.’ So we're doing something that is in the service of mankind, of humanity, and it's a battle of good against evil. America does, should, and does stand with the good. That's what President Trump is doing, And I deeply appreciate his support,” he told [Jonathan] Karl.
Satellite Images Show Damage to Iran Missile Sites | BBC News
Israeli strikes have damaged structures at two missile sites as well as an airport runway, satellite images have revealed.
Top Netanyahu Aide Says Iran Still Has ‘Thousands’ of Ballistic Missiles | Times of Israel
[Israeli] National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi tells Army Radio that Iran still has “thousands of ballistic missiles” at its disposal, indicating a higher figure than previously estimated. “This is not a battle that over the long term will be able to bring an end to the Iranian threat,” Hanegbi says.
Iran Missile Threat Exposes Israel’s Bunker Shortages, Sparking Safety Concerns | Euronews
A ballistic missile fired from Iran struck the wall of a building in central Israel on Monday, breaching a reinforced shelter, a preliminary investigation by Israel's civilian protection military body has revealed. At least four people were killed in that strike: three were found inside the shelter and one in a nearby building, where it is believed the force of the blast threw them. The incident has sparked widespread concern across Israel and intensified public anger towards the government amid reports that bunkers are failing to withstand strikes from heavy missiles.
“So far, we’ve killed 10” senior nuclear scientists, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] says. “Our arm is still outstretched. There are a few; we will get to them.” Israel delivered “an extremely severe strike” to the Natanz uranium enrichment site, he says. “We destroyed factories for creating centrifuges.” “We are continuing to destroy nuclear targets systematically,” he says. Netanyahu then moves to Iran’s ballistic missiles, reading from a list in his hand. “We struck and continue to strike production factories, one after the next,” he says, adding that Israel has taken out “hundreds of ballistic missiles.” He adds that Israel is destroying missile launchers “one by one.” “We eliminated Iran’s security leadership, including three chiefs of staff,” Netanyahu continues. “We are eliminating them one by one,” he says. “Israel controls Tehran’s skies… We paved an air highway to Tehran,” says Netanyahu. . . . “We are on the way to victory,” he promises, adding that “Iran understands this as well.”
Israel Bombs Iranian State TV During Live Broadcast | Axios
Iranian state television was broadcasting live on Monday when a massive explosion rocked the studio, with the anchor fleeing her desk amid smoke and rubble. The broadcast then went dark. . . . Israel’s strike on the state TV building signaled a broadening of its bombing campaign in Iran.
Inside Khamenei’s War Cabinet: How Iran Guides Its Contest with Israel | Iran International
Though a network of powerful institutions and senior military advisors shape Iran’s defense strategy, ultimate authority over military decisions lies with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This network includes a select group of Khamenei’s personal military aides, the General Staff of the Armed Forces (GSAF), the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), and the Military Advisors Center in the Leader’s Office.
G7 Expresses Support for Israel, Calls Iran Source of Instability | Reuters
The Group of Seven nations expressed support for Israel in a statement issued late on Monday and labeled its rival Iran as a source of instability in the Middle East, with the G7 leaders urging broader de-escalation of hostilities in the region.
G7 Leaders Urge 'De-Escalation' but Stop Short of Calling for Israel-Iran Ceasefire | BBC News
The leaders of G7 nations have urged a “de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza” —but stopped short of calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, during their summit in Canada.
Iran-Israel Ceasefire Offer Has Been Made, Says Macron, as Trump Exits G7 Summit Early | Guardian
Donald Trump dramatically left the G7 summit in Canada a day early to rush back to Washington, with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, claiming the US leader was considering the prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. “There is indeed an offer to meet and exchange. An offer was made especially to get a ceasefire and to then kickstart broader discussions,” Macron told reporters at the G7. “We have to see now whether the sides will follow.”
Netanyahu Says Israeli Attacks Pave Way for Iran Regime Change | Iran International
Israel’s military campaign against Iran is giving its people a chance to topple the Islamic Republic, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Iran International, adding that the ruling system's days were numbered. “A light has been lit—carry it to freedom,” Netanyahu told Iran International's anchor Pouria Zeraati on Monday. “This is the time,” he said. “Your hour of freedom is near—it’s happening now.” . . . The Israeli premier suggested that the Islamic Republic’s military vulnerability could also hasten its political collapse. “These dictators in Iran, sure they fear us—but they fear you, the people of Iran, even more,” he said. “They understand that 80 percent of Iranians despise them."
In a direct message to the Iranian people, National Unity chairman Benny Gantz insists that Israel’s war is against “the regime that seeks to destroy us, not against the Iranian people.”
Interviewed by Iran International, a London-based opposition outlet, Gantz says, “The Iranian people are a people of rich history and a distinct culture, and I hope the day will come when the Jewish people & the Iranian people can live side by side in friendship and prosperity.” . . . “The decision to preemptively act against Iran was justified and necessary, and on that matter, the Israeli opposition stands fully united with the coalition. The people of Israel stand completely united in achieving our objectives, and any disagreements we may have will have to wait for other times,” he says.
Iran Has Sustained Blow After Blow Since October 2023 | New York Times
Iran is often portrayed as one of the world’s most dangerous villains, a rogue state whose growing nuclear program and shadowy military capabilities threaten Israel, the United States and beyond. But the country has suffered blow after blow since war erupted between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, soon drawing in Hezbollah and then Iran itself. . . . Earlier attacks and assassinations in Iran humiliated Tehran, causing recriminations among military officials and pushing it to launch retaliatory barrages against Israel. But the renewed fighting has shown, as never before, just how compromised and weak Iranian forces really are.
Trump Rebukes ‘Kooky Tucker Carlson’ on Iran | Jewish Insider
President Donald Trump dismissed Tucker Carlson at several points on Monday over Carlson’s comments opposing Trump’s support for Israeli strikes on Iran. Trump, in recent days, has distanced himself from isolationist figures in the party who have condemned the strikes on Iran. Asked Monday at the G7 Summit in Canada about Carlson’s comments accusing Trump of being “complicit” in the war, Trump quipped, “I don’t know what Tucker Carlson is saying. Let him go get a television network and say it so that people listen.” Trump later posted on his Truth Social platform, “Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that, ‘Iran CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!’” Over the weekend, Trump had also criticized isolationists in his party,, declaring in an interview, “I think I’m the one that decides” what constitutes America First, adding, “For those people who say they want peace—you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon.”
NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
IAEA Chief: Likely All Machines at Iran’s Main Enrichment Plant ‘Severely Damaged’ | Reuters
It is very likely all the roughly 15,000 centrifuges operating at Iran’s biggest uranium enrichment plant at Natanz were badly damaged or destroyed because of a power cut caused by an Israeli strike, the UN nuclear watchdog chief told the BBC on Monday.
[Israeli President Isaac] Herzog was asked why Israel attacked Iran when it did. “When you take such decisions of historic magnitude and proportions, you have to analyse all facets and all facts,” he replied. “The truth of the matter is there was no other choice.” He claimed Iran was proceeding “dramatically” towards the bomb, both in terms of the enrichment of uranium and, “clandestinely,” the armament part of the process.
Netanyahu: Iran’s Nuclear Program Is Like a Cancer. You Have to Cut It Out | Times of Israel
Asked how far Israel has set back the Iranian nuclear program at this stage, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] answers by repeating that the goal is that “it must be destroyed” and describing it as “like a cancer. You know, when you have a cancer that threatens to kill you, you cut it out. You also do other treatments and it could be that it returns one day. But I estimate that we are setting them back a great deal of time . . . and we’re not stopping . . . We are truly carrying out root canal treatment.” He adds the situation “is at 12 o’clock. There is no 13 o’clock,” and says Israel is doing “what a people that seeks to live has to do.”
SANCTIONS, SHIPPING, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
If Iran’s Oil Is Cut Off, China Will Pay the Price | Wall Street Journal
Israel hasn’t attacked Iran’s energy export hubs so far. If it does, China could find itself cut off from a flow of cheap oil. . . . More than 90% of Iran’s oil exports now go to China, according to commodities data company Kpler. Most of it is bought by small Chinese “teapot” refineries clustered in the Shandong region that operate independently from state-owned oil companies. They switched to illicit Iranian oil en masse in 2022 to protect their margins. . . . Iran’s top customer would still feel the pinch if its energy exports are disrupted. For the first time in years, China’s private refineries would have to pay full price for a barrel of oil.
CYBERSECURITY MATTERS
Hacktivist Group Claims Cyberattack on Iran’s Bank Sepah | Iran International
The hacker group Predatory Sparrow claimed responsibility on Tuesday for a cyberattack targeting Bank Sepah, one of Iran’s oldest financial institutions with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Army. The group alleged it had “destroyed all data” at the bank. The claim comes amid reports of widespread banking disruptions in Iran.
CONGRESS & IRAN
US Senator Moves to Limit Trump’s War Powers on Iran, as Mideast Conflict Escalates | Reuters
A Democratic senator introduced legislation on Monday to prevent U.S. President Donald Trump from using military force against Iran without Congress's authorization, as an escalating battle between Israel and Iran raised fears of broader conflict. Tim Kaine of Virginia has tried for years to wrest back Congress's authority to declare war from the White House.
MTG Post Against Israel’s Operations in Iran Unites Far Right, Far Left | Jewish Insider
A tweet by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) opposing U.S. support for Israel’s ongoing campaign against Iran is bringing into sharp relief the convergence between the far left and far right in opposition to the Israeli operation. . . . That post has won plaudits from prominent far-left figures, including Code Pink activist Medea Benjamin and Drop Site News co-founder Ryan Grim. . . . Benjamin’s post was reshared by Doug Stafford, the chief strategist for Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who has repeatedly re-shared and praised Benjamin and Code Pink in the wake of the Israeli operation.
RUSSIA, TURKEY, & IRAN
Putin and Erdogan Condemn Israeli Actions Against Iran in Phone Call, Kremlin Says | Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel's “act of force” against Iran and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities when they spoke by phone on Monday, the Kremlin said.
SYRIA & IRAN
As Other Arab States Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran, Syria Is Notably Silent | New York Times
Arab leaders denounced the Israeli strikes as “heinous attacks” and “violations of international law.” But amid the chorus of criticism, one key player in the region has remained notably silent: Syria. The decision by Syria’s new government, led by President Ahmed al-Shara, to remain silent is a sign of just how much the geopolitical sands have shifted in the country since rebels toppled the Assad regime in December, analysts say. That regime was among Iran’s closet allies in the region, providing key support as Iran built up its network of anti-Israel militias, the so-called Axis of Resistance, across the Levant. But since coming to power, the new government has made clear that Iran’s proxies are no longer welcome in Syria and pledged that it would not allow any armed groups to launch attacks into Israel from Syrian soil. . . . Now, the conflict between Israel and Iran has offered Syrian authorities an opportunity to prove that they will make good on their promises — and to win the Western support Mr. al-Shara has sought to garner since taking power