Hezbollah's Low Point and the Future Iranian Efforts To Rebuild its Crown Jewel Proxy

The announcement of the ceasefire agreement that ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah was followed by efforts from Hezbollah officials to portray the war as a great victory. Nevertheless, outside of Hezbollah's immediate sphere of influence in the Shiite sect, few in Lebanon see the outcome of the year-long war as an achievement. 

Hezbollah, which initiated the war against Israel to support and express its solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, agreed to break the linkage with Gaza and abandoned its months-long position to continue fighting until Israel stops its military campaign in Gaza. This left many in Lebanon wondering what the purpose of all-out war in the first place was, as Lebanon paid a heavy price while Israel's pressure on Gaza continued. 

The fact is that Hezbollah brought upon itself catastrophic damage. This includes the elimination of its leadership and devastating destruction to the Shiite communities across Lebanon, which were used as human shields and a cover for its vast military infrastructure. 

The Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon along the international border and its de-facto military control over the area exposed the extent of Hezbollah's violations of U.N. Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701 over the years since the 2006 war. Hezbollah is now forced to withdraw from the area. Losing its frontline military capabilities, alongside the massive degradation of its medium- and long-range standoff capabilities built over the years by Iran, means that Tehran's flagship regional proxy’s threat to Israel is at a historical low point. 

Under these circumstances, Hezbollah's new Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s claim of a "divine victory" is perceived in Lebanon as a pathetic attempt to raise the morale of its supporters. Hezbollah's affirmation of itself as "the protector of Lebanon" has never been more detached from reality. 

After the 2006 war, then-Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah admitted his mistake in approving the attack on the Israeli border patrol, which led to the month-long war that had brought devastating outcomes to Lebanon. Today, Hezbollah’s political rivals demand that the organization be held accountable. 

The questions of Hezbollah's independent military capabilities outside the control of the Lebanese state institutions, its unilateral decision to initiate a war against Israel without consulting or receiving authorization from the government in Beirut, and the organization's actions in the service of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” while ignoring Lebanon's national interests, are all part of a heated domestic political debate. 

In addition, the legitimacy of the ceasefire agreement itself is questioned by the opposition parties and the spiritual leader of the Christians in Lebanon, Patriarch Bechara al-Rai, as the deal was negotiated by Nabih Berri, the speaker of the parliament and Hezbollah's close Shiite ally, and was not presented to the government or the parliament. 

By now, while the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the oversight committee, which is supposed to ensure the enforcement of the ceasefire conditions, are slow to act, Hezbollah has already started to violate the agreement. It triggered an immediate Israeli military response targeting Hezbollah's terrorists in southern Lebanon. Those Israeli attacks are a vital message marking its intention to enforce the agreement itself if the Lebanese side fails to do so. But Hezbollah’s violations continued on Monday, which has prompted calls from across the Israeli political spectrum for more decisive retaliation. 

Looking forward, it seems that the current ceasefire agreement holds the potential to prevent the mistakes that allowed Hezbollah to freely violate UNSCR 1701 and build its massive military infrastructures along the international border over the past 18 years.  The participation of a U.S. military general in the oversight committee should make it more attentive to Israeli reports of Hezbollah's violations. The legitimacy Israel has received in handling these infringements of the ceasefire itself in case the LAF fails to do so assures a more rigid enforcement policy. 

Nevertheless, the lack of any concrete obligation in the ceasefire deal of the need to disarm Hezbollah, even though the relevant UN resolution, UNSCR 1559, is mentioned in the agreement, will continue to be a challenge. Iran will do all that is in its power to rebuild Hezbollah's military capabilities, as the organization is a crucial element in its regional strategy and its deterrence against Israel. 

Looking forward, the pressure from Hezbollah’s political rivals in the domestic arena to limit the organization’s power in Lebanon and growing instability in Syria, which is a critical logistical route for Iranian support, could complicate Tehran's plans. But by the end of the day, Hezbollah's ability to recover from its current low point will be dependent first and foremost on Israel's long-term determination to forcefully foil Iran's efforts to rebuild its crown jewel proxy in Lebanon. 

Dror Doron is a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) focusing on Hezbollah and Lebanon. He spent nearly two decades as a senior analyst in the Office of Israel's Prime Minister. Dror is on Twitter @DrorDoron.