Iraq

Iraq’s Prime Minister Claims To Initiate Dialogue For Complete American Troop Withdrawal 

Hezbollah’s propaganda arm Al-Manar TV cited a claim by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq to have attacked Eilat, Israel on January 12. That day, reports also indicated that alarms sounded at the U.S. embassy amid Iran-backed militias’ threat to retaliate for the U.S. strikes against dozens of Houthi targets in Yemen last night.  

On January 8, Harakat Al-Nujaba, a member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, claimed a long-range cruise missile attack on Haifa, Israel and said it would continue to attack Israel in response to the war in Gaza. Known as an aggressive Iran-backed proxy based in Iraq and part of the Iraqi state’s Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), Harakat Al-Nujaba has also been implicated in planning and carrying out rocket and drone attacks against U.S. military positions in Iraq and Syria, which is how the U.S. justified self-defense airstrikes against one of the group’s leaders in Baghdad last week.  

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Sudani called those U.S. airstrikes a violation of Iraqi sovereignty and claimed to initiate a bilateral dialogue with the U.S. to discuss a complete withdrawal of the 2,500 U.S. troops stationed in Iraq. After Sudani made his public demands, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry said “the presence of American forces in any form whatsoever...would not help to maintain stability and peace.” Iran and its terrorist proxies are exerting political and military pressure to achieve their objective of evicting the U.S. military from the region.  

In Private, Iraq’s Prime Minister Looks To Maintain Cordial Relations With The U.S. 

Then, on January 9, Politico reported that Iraq’s prime minister has privately conveyed his wishes to negotiate a deal that would keep the U.S. military in Iraq. On the one hand, Sudani is looking to assuage the demands of extremist elements of his political constituency, while on the other, aiming to maintain cordial relations with the U.S. The Pentagon responded that it is not planning on withdrawing troops.  

Israel and the Palestinian Territories 

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Find Iran Trained Hamas In Producing Precision Rockets 

Iran has sought to enhance the accuracy of Hamas’ rocket arsenal by training the Palestinian terrorist group on guidance technologies. The IDF discovered engines and warheads for cruise missiles, a significant potential upgrade to Hamas’ arsenal, which comprises mostly unguided rockets, anti-tank guided missiles, short-range explosive drones, and explosive uncrewed sea vessels. Upgrading primitive rockets with precision-guidance technologies for better targeting capabilities has been the IRGC’s model in Lebanon for Hezbollah.  

The IDF Looks To A New Phase Of The War In Northern Gaza Amid Steady Progress Toward Operational Goals 

Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a spokesperson for the IDF, has reported significant progress on the ground, noting that 12 Hamas battalions based in northern Gaza have ceased to coherently function. Hamas’ mid and upper-level command in northern Gaza has been severely degraded. 

The Israeli military said it will transition from major combat operations in northern Gaza to a more targeted phase of the war, which would involve fewer troops and airstrikes and more of a focus on raids by elite units that target Hamas leaders and operatives in Gaza as well as conduct hostage rescue missions. Nevertheless, the intensity of operations in southern Gaza, including those targeting Hamas leadership in Khan Younis, are not expected to be scaled down as drastically as operations in northern Gaza.  

Hezbollah-Linked Media Claims Israel Is Operating To Thwart The Movement Of Hamas Terrorists Out Of Gaza 

Hezbollah-linked media outlet Al-Akhbar claimed that Israeli special forces are operating in countries worldwide to thwart attempts to smuggle Hamas leadership or hostages out of Gaza. Sudan and Libya—both weak and unstable governments plagued by civil war—in particular were mentioned in the report. If Hamas operatives and leadership are allowed to leave Gaza, they would be recruited for operations and able to direct operations against Western targets or Israel from outside of Gaza. These are the risks of expelling, rather than eliminating, the terrorist group.  

Lebanon and Hezbollah 

Hezbollah Escalates On Israel’s Northern Front In Response To Israel’s Targeted Assassination Campaign By Airstrikes In Lebanon 

Hezbollah escalated its rocket fire into Israel after a drone strike in southern Beirut last week that killed Hamas’ deputy politburo head, Saleh Al-Arouri. On January 6, Hezbollah launched over 40 missiles into Israeli territory, ostensibly in retaliation for the Arouri assassination.

 n January 8, Israel retaliated and killed Wissam Hassan Al-Tawil, a senior commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Unit. The airstrike targeted his vehicle a few miles from the border with Israel. Tawil played a critical role in coordinating Hezbollah’s terrorist activities near the border with Israel and was involved in weapons manufacturing, Hezbollah’s operations in Syria, and the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers, which sparked the 2006 war between Lebanon and Israel.  

Moments before Tawil’s funeral was set to begin, Israel conducted a second precision strike in southern Lebanon. Ali Hussein Barji, commander of Hezbollah’s air forces in southern Lebanon and responsible for dozens of drone attacks on northern Israel over the past couple of months, was struck in his car in near proximity to Tawil’s funeral service.  

Syria 

American Forces Come Under Multiple Attacks At Bases In Syria 

On January 5, the U.S. base at Al-Shaddadi in Hasakah, Syria was targeted in a drone attack that was not claimed. The drone was reportedly intercepted by the base’s air defenses. On that same day, Al-Tanf Garrison, strategically located near Syria’s southern border with Iraq and Jordan, was attacked with multiple drones that didn’t appear to cause damage or injuries.  

Israel Intensifies Airstrikes In Syria Amid Reports Of Surging Iranian Arms Intended For Hezbollah 

Israel’s strike against the head of the IRGC’s Quds Force’s Unit 2250 Razi Mousavi on December 25 in a suburb of Damascus, Syria may have been part of Israel’s shift to more potent airstrikes in Syria. According to Reuters, 19 Hezbollah operatives have been neutralized in Syria over the past three months—twice the total from the rest of the year. This wave of airstrikes may further intensify, with media reports indicating that Iran is surging weaponry to Hezbollah in order to prepare it for a major escalation with Israel. Israel’s targets have ranged from weapons and ammunition depots to command-and-control nodes to truck convoys.  

Jordan Conducts Airstrikes In Syria Targeting Iran-Linked Drug Smugglers 

Israel is not the only state that has sought to curtail the operations of the IRGC and its proxies in Syria. Jordan also carried out airstrikes in Syria over the past week, targeting Iran-linked drug traffickers responsible for smuggling the Syrian-made amphetamine known as Captagon through Jordan intended for the lucrative Gulf markets. Jordan blames Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militias for the production and trafficking of the amphetamine. The global narcotics trade has long been an important source of revenue for the Lebanon-based terrorist group.